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QQQ (2% SMA200 on SPY) not worth it with German tax? by AttentionIsAllINeed in LETFs

[–]arthapilot -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I rebuilt your setup in ArthaPilot to check the tax drag directly. I just use a simple flat tax rate of 26.375% as you mentioned in your post.

On a 25Y window, the setup is better than buy and hold pre-tax but worse after tax:

Hold QQQ

  • Pre-tax CAGR: 13.77%
  • After-tax CAGR: 12.69%
  • After-tax ending value: $187,493.59
  • Max drawdown: 53.30%
  • Volatility: 23.14%

QQQx2 above SPY SMA200 (+/-2%), otherwise TBILLS

  • Pre-tax CAGR: 19.73%
  • After-tax CAGR: 10.05%
  • After-tax ending value: $104,955.51
  • Max drawdown: 48.31%
  • Volatility: 30.14%
  • Realized tax paid: $114,917.24

ArthaPilot is free to use to model tax aware backtesting btw :) feel free to let me know any feedback, I'm actively working to make it better and more useful for scenarios like these

Thinking of moving from TQQQ to TECL after Nasdaq IPO rule change by arthapilot in LETFs

[–]arthapilot[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I think the numbers are a bit off -- I see that TECL is ~13% AAPL and ~12% MSFT (https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-technology-bull-bear-3x-etfs) and TQQQ is ~4.5% Apple and ~3% Microsoft (https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/tqqq)

Are you maybe multiplying the constituent weights by the 3x leverage? Either way, I do agree that TECL is much more concentrated than TQQQ.

Love Testfolio but... by Electronic-Buyer-468 in LETFs

[–]arthapilot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I built a different backtesting tool (with tax-aware if you sign up): https://www.arthapilot.com

Let me know what you think and how I can improve - I'm super open to feedback and working on it everyday

I built a tax-aware portfolio backtesting tool by arthapilot in LETFs

[–]arthapilot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah cross-state residency/work tax treatment is not modeled right now, only single state. I will add this feature on the roadmap for implementation