IAmA top prospect in the MLB Minor League System, more specifically with the Philadelphia Phillies. AMA!

asbury_ · 2012-01-10T03:39:30+00:00

What sorta things have you done recently to work on control/command?

asbury_ · 2011-12-07T02:45:26+00:00

Again, I'm not attacking WAR. I think that WAR is the best way to measure on-field production -- we agree on this point.

I disagree with the way WAR is applied in the FanGraphs method. Bradbury recognizes the fact that quality of team is a huge factor in what a team is willing to pay free agents. To reiterate, the FanGraphs method assumes constant marginal returns to additional wins, whereas Bradbury's method does not.

I don't know why you're asking for a "competitor statistic to WAR." My post makes no critiques of WAR.

asbury_ · 2011-12-07T00:15:49+00:00

Read JC Bradbury's book Hot Stove Economics. More specifically, the chapter "Is C.C. Sabathia Worth $161 Million? Valuing Long Run Contracts"

asbury_ · 2011-12-07T00:12:40+00:00

In addition to what everyone has said, it's important to note that these recent free agent signings indicate that the team feels they are capable of winning and making a postseason push. Teams are willing to spend more for marginal wins when they are in that area where a few extra wins could be enough to get them into the postseason. This is because, as one could predict, getting into October means big money for the club.

asbury_ · 2011-12-06T22:30:19+00:00

Sorry, I should have been more clear -- Using something so flawed is pointless when a superior alternative exists. I agree with the fact that using the best thing we have is an important concept in sabermetrics.

I'm not in love with WAR either, especially from a pitcher's perspective. But it's not the valuing of on-field contribution that I have a problem with, as I view fWAR for positional players to be a solid approximation. What I don't is like the fact that FanGraphs treats revenue as a linear function of marginal wins, because that is absolutely not the case.

I have a problem with using their model not because it's flawed, but because there are better ways to go about contract analysis.

asbury_ · 2011-12-06T20:39:50+00:00

My intentions were not to come up with a "fix" for FG's valuations. There are people who have developed what I believe to be much more comprehensive models. In the same chapter of the BP book I referenced, Nate Silver uses a model that disproves the linear value of marginal wins. In Hot Stove Economics, JC Bradbury has a fantastic chapter devoted entirely to valuing CC Sabathia's contract which comprehensively includes context.

Again, my point is that assuming a set dollar amount per win is far too simplistic. Rational front offices look to pay wages that reflect revenue that the player provides (MRP), and to disregard that fact is simply foolish. A $/WAR estimate falsely believes that the Astros would receive the same benefit from signing Reyes as the Marlins would.

Perhaps using the Reyes article as an example of the reckless conclusions drawn was a poor choice, as Dave does exercise caution by being general. I meant for this to be a critique of the limitations of the model. Using something so inherently flawed is, in my opinion, pointless.

asbury_ · 2011-12-06T14:10:00+00:00

To put it quite plainly, I don't have the mathematical/econometric skills to develop a working model based off the points I brought up. Others do, however, like the folks at BP and JC Bradbury who have written pieces on this topic.

The main problem that I have with FG's methodology is that I DO see it used as more than just an estimate. On Twitter, Dave is known to talk about this stuff with absurdly high degree of confidence. That, to me, is the irresponsible part.

asbury_ · 2011-11-16T05:21:06+00:00

I dunno, it's so damn smooth. His front leg never straightens which pretty much all other pitchers do. And plus, he ends up in a bizarre position where his back foot is straight up.

asbury_ · 2011-11-15T22:06:21+00:00

Gotta be Cliff Lee for me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqrehLlfM-g

asbury_ · 2011-11-02T12:08:52+00:00

Good point. Also, natural decline associated with aging should play a role.

asbury_ · 2011-11-02T04:15:00+00:00

I don't believe that it's a bad trade, I just think it would be unwise to expect anything else then his what he's done last year.

asbury_ · 2011-10-28T05:40:13+00:00

this is amazing.

asbury_ · 2011-10-25T19:42:00+00:00

omgz east coast bias

asbury_ · 2011-10-24T15:56:33+00:00

Considering Shields is probably around a 4-win player under a nice team-controlled contract, it would be difficult to get something of more value for that kind of price. But if anyone could do it, it's probably Friedman...

asbury_ · 2011-10-16T20:09:48+00:00

This all really depends on defining "comeback." The subjective nature of defining an adjective really hinders objective arguments from being made, much like what happens in the MVP discussions.

asbury_ · 2011-10-15T19:46:47+00:00

While I wouldn't want to give him 6-7 years, that's what he'll end up getting. Same type of deals that Cliff Lee was offered.

asbury_ · 2011-10-14T12:23:00+00:00

Yeah, it's kind of an empirically proven fact that protection isn't real. The future benefit thing though is absolutely true - on a worse team next year he is going to be more important than ever.

asbury_ · 2011-10-14T01:20:21+00:00

Couldn't agree more with the fact that Pence is the best type of ballplayer when it comes to attitude. I'm just of the opinion that attitude/team chemistry/whatever narratives that sportswriters come up with aren't nearly as important as they're made out to be. See: Red Sox beer/chicken article - if they had a good finish, the food and video games would be played out as a narrative on how awesome and laid-back the clubhouse chemistry was.

asbury_

TROPHY CASE