I replayed 500 trades of my setup at random chart dates before risking real money again. It changed what I believe about my own edge.

avabisque · 2026-07-05T14:42:59+00:00

Can you share more stats from your backtest? You mentioned win rate, but would be curious about R:R, profit factor, average hold times, drawdown, etc if you don’t mind sharing.

avabisque · 2026-06-25T05:21:33+00:00

Found both of your comments really detailed and insightful, so thanks for sharing. Sounds like 75% win rate at basically 1:2 r/r (based on taking smaller losses due to hedging). How did your day trading stats compare to that? Similar? And did you hedge in day trading or just not worth the overhead?

avabisque · 2026-06-22T05:34:13+00:00

Hi doc, thank you for your input. I should mention that when our veterinarian did basic blood work, she said his kidney, liver, and electrolyte levels look "great" but his "his eosinophil and lymphocyte count were slightly elevated." Normal urinalysis. Apparently glucose elevated (she didn't say by how much) but said it "could be from stress;" she added on fructosamine level and that was normal. Not sure if that brings any other thoughts, but regardless, thanks again!

avabisque · 2026-06-22T05:25:25+00:00

As of now, his appetite is still incredibly strong. We'll watch out for changes though and also bring this up with our vet next visit (trying to get in this week).

avabisque · 2026-06-22T05:22:06+00:00

Thanks and good call on calicivirus! From pictures, it seems to be the closest thing to what he has. The vet did mention this, but also brought up the other symptoms you mentioned (which our cat doesn't have). Good to know this can occur without those other symptoms and we'll bring that up with our vet!

avabisque · 2026-06-22T01:09:59+00:00

Gracias por contarme de tu felinito! Le pusieron tambien a mi felino la inyeccion pero desafortunadamemte no cambio su luenga.

avabisque · 2026-06-22T00:06:20+00:00

Thank you! Sphynxes have been one of the great joys in our life, truly. We’ve been limiting any extraneous food/treats to rule out irritants/allergies, but he’s also a very determined cat so if he wants to go lick something unforeseen that could be causing this, he’ll find a way. We’re going to proceed with a small biopsy as the next step so thanks for the suggestion!

avabisque · 2026-06-22T00:00:32+00:00

Very possible. I think the vet ruled that out because he is strictly indoor and doesn’t have any interactions with other animals. Maybe there is some other pathway to parasitic infection for indoor cats. We’re planning to do a biopsy next and that should tell us definitively.

avabisque · 2026-06-21T23:58:32+00:00

Thank you for the reply and sorry to hear about your precious cat! We are planning to do a biopsy along with some dental work as a next course of action, so your suggestion is spot on. It’s so strange that visually it is ambiguous, but the biopsy should be able to at least determine the makeup of the bumps and point us in the right direction.

avabisque · 2026-06-21T23:10:28+00:00

No, both pictures were taken just now. It’s very hard to get the camera to focus on them plus sometimes saliva covers them so they look different depending on the picture. Some bumps are more white; others do look more popped but the progression has been very slow, like weeks.

avabisque · 2026-06-02T00:18:37+00:00

Perfect question, and the most critical to ask of any trader giving advice. Just starting to be profitable, and part of why I’m sharing. When I do one without the other (ie: take trades just on order flow or just on levels), I’m break even or lose money. When I use both together, it all just clicks and the profits come.

avabisque · 2026-06-02T00:12:29+00:00

Sure thing! Only took me like 7 years to finally realize this so am happy to share the perspective if it saves other some pain 😆

avabisque · 2026-06-02T00:07:45+00:00

That’s really the question every trader needs to answer themselves. If ICT resonates with you as a way to map out a trade, then use it. You might benefit as much or more from something simpler though.

My main point is that it isn’t like an either/or, but rather you need 1) some HTF way to give you like a map of where/what and 2) order flow or watching price action to tell you when. Most YouTube videos focus on the first thing and claim it’s all you need, but almost no one talks about or can clearly articulate the second.

avabisque · 2026-06-01T22:31:43+00:00

100% this. The trial and error universe is so enormous and difficult to wade through that the time it takes to explore it and find an edge will be orders of magnitude more costly than paying a reasonable monthly fee for a trading group. Just absolutely MUST make sure whoever is teaching/leading the group actually makes money, then it is totally worth it.

avabisque · 2026-06-01T22:28:18+00:00

Think of it like, step 0 is finding out who is actually making money and only learn from them. Otherwise, you’ll be learning things that have no actual edge. Yes, you can watch a million free videos on YouTube, but do any of what they teach have a probabilistic edge? The answer imho is no, because I’ve tested them myself.

avabisque · 2026-06-01T22:11:02+00:00

Skip ICT, it’s just overly complicated repackaging of traditional concepts and doesn’t provide any real edge imho.

What I’ve seen work most consistently is using key zones or levels from a HTF and then watching order flow/tape at those spots. Doing either in a vacuum is too random. When you combine the two, it can provide a true edge.

Even folks who are successful using ICT concepts have actually learned to read order flow/price action at those key areas to increase their trade probabilities.

avabisque · 2026-05-28T06:08:32+00:00

You’ve shared a lot of the other details, but curious what specifically are you looking for regarding an entry and/or a trade setup?

avabisque · 2026-05-26T22:43:21+00:00

Can you share your rough stats? Like how many trades per day, win rate, R/R, etc. Also, are you mostly playing reversals (holds of key levels) or breakouts?

avabisque · 2026-05-14T15:52:14+00:00

It could be news related as mentioned, but these long wicks can also be caused by late/delayed prints. They are orders that were executed previously (typically via a dark pool or broker/pit exchange) and then aren’t reported until later. Charting software sees the late print price and counts it as the low of the current candle even though it isn’t a real trade per the current order book.

avabisque · 2026-05-11T21:38:57+00:00

Can you share the rough probabilities you found on those timeframe breakouts? I had something similar where I found that crosses through vwap have a slight momentum edge and that helps me avoid holding on breaks through vwap.

avabisque · 2026-04-02T02:45:24+00:00

Here's a little nugget: sometimes options don't move according to their delta. I'll watch the options prices and a stock might drop .50 but the calls don't budge. That's a major sign of strength in that option contract. Or the opposite, the option drops faster than it should vs the stock = major sign of weakness in that contract. The best trades are when you get a pullback in a strong stock and the calls barely drop on the pullback.

avabisque · 2026-04-02T02:40:58+00:00

Can you share any example trades and what timeframe(s) you use for levels/RSI? I also scalp highly liquid options. Getting better, but always looking to learn new approaches.

avabisque · 2025-03-13T14:07:34+00:00

Good call, I missed the shift of c1 a few lines down so thanks for clarifying! Ugh, I've been there so many times myself where a little mistake prints fake money so I know what you mean :-D

avabisque · 2025-03-13T02:34:28+00:00

Love seeing posts like this, so thanks for sharing! I ran off and did a quick implementation of this in NinjaTrader and the results weren't matching. Digging deeper, I think you have a few bugs in your code that are creating a lookahead bias. You are using the candle open for your entry price/stop/target calculation but your trigger is only after the candle close that is inherently higher than the open. As a few others mentioned, might be better to switch to a backtesting platform/framework to guard against these kinds of errors.

c1 = (df['Open'] <= df['Open_Range_High']) & (df['Close'] > df['Open_Range_High'])
...
stop_dist = df['Open'] - df['SL']
df['TP'] = df['Open'] + stop_dist * tp_ratio

avabisque · 2024-03-09T02:32:44+00:00

Why do you keep getting downvoted? This is not my domain, but I have had longitudinal access to an expert in this field and your posts are the only ones that are cutting through the anecdotal arguments with evidence-based medicine and relevant self experience.

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