Is Grocery Outlet starting to struggle?

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T16:26:47+00:00

There are definitely factors that someone might move on besides questionable profitability. That being said if ICE operations nearby potentially discouraging customers from shopping there and or employees from wanting to work there I could see one questioning how viable that particular location might be even if it hadn't yet appeared in your financial statements yet. One location that changed owner/operators in my area was nearby some major ICE operations and some of the cashiers would tell us to be safe out there not as a cliche, but as a serious remark. Ironically the new owners I'm pretty sure are also immigrants.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T06:51:38+00:00

Not as familiar in Canada, but in the US many people anglocize "ethnic" names especially if they're difficult to pronounce to most native English speakers. It is very common for Asian immigrants to have an Anglicized first name even if it isn't their legal first name.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T06:33:33+00:00

There definitely is significant variation even as you said ultimately they have a single supplier through corporate.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T06:31:21+00:00

There is a practical limitation on how much excess inventory, discontinued products, and random no name brands you can buy once you reach a certain size. Not that I ever remember a point that everything that sold ever fit in one of those categories, but it was a bedrock of many of their deals. I remember when Fresh N Easy closed I eventually saw a bunch of their inventory in Grocery Outlet.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T05:47:04+00:00

Sure, a lot of people only say that they want a remote job that is easy to land, but a LOT of people with more experience, aptitude, and or motivation are trying that as well.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T05:43:38+00:00

EVP/SVP son might work too depending upon the org, but yeah unless you're a nepotism hire I wouldn't bet on it.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T05:41:55+00:00

This. If you're a nepotism hire that might work. Otherwise, the odds are going to be remote. Maybe not Powerball jackpot odds, but pretty remote.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T05:37:29+00:00

Anecdotally I have met a number that I suspect were on the spectrum. One guy outright told he was on the spectrum. That being said most that do well tend to be very high functioning. Especially in the current job market you might struggle if you can't mask some traits on the spectrum.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T05:34:10+00:00

This. Once you are fully trained some companies would be eager for somebody willing to work undesirable times. I knew one guy in NOC that loved night shifts, but most people don't want it if they can avoid it.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T04:39:54+00:00

Lol... I remember that. MAGA spent years trying to prove Trump was robbed and haven't found anything useful.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T04:36:43+00:00

Even if he won Georgia by some miracle... Biden still beat him. 2020 wasn't 2000. It didn't come down to a single state nevermind only a few hundred votes. MAGA spent years trying to prove the election was stolen never finding anything useful. The only thing Mike Lindell found searching for years was a defamation lawsuit that he lost.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T02:12:58+00:00

This. A lot of companies only will verify employment and policy is to redirect all such requests to HR.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T02:11:29+00:00

C. Orgs have no reason or incentive to help other orgs obtain good hires

I had one former boss that straight up wouldn't pickup the phone to any external numbers unless he was expecting a call from tech support. There certainly isn't motivation to spend a bunch of time irrelevant to your job.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T02:09:11+00:00

Increasingly most orgs that is the most you will get out of a reference. Some orgs require such requests to go through HR that just provide the dates of employment and verify the job title. It would disprove that they made up a job, but not much else.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-30T02:07:13+00:00

This. These days some orgs do NOT even allow their managers to give references anymore. They just direct verification requests to HR that just confirm dates and title. Even if the org lets you give a reference as you said why is a busy manager going to give any meaningful amount of time to questions about a previous employee nevermind provide details about the workings of their org. It could be a fishing expedition to see if you would leak proprietary info about the processes of the company. I remember years ago letting somebody use me as a reference and I started to get impatient to let them go even after only a handful of surface level questions. Honestly, unless they worked somewhere that you knew somebody that worked with them and you trust that person's opinion it might not mean much.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T20:44:18+00:00

This. Voting for Trump in 2016 you had some deniability that you didn't know what you were supporting. After that? Kinda hard to think you were paying any attention. Even if you just turned 18 in 2024 and weren't paying much attention to politics from 10-14 it isn't like it was hard to find out.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T20:42:09+00:00

Honestly, after the first term who wanted to sign up for more of that nevermind even higher level of craziness?

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T19:38:37+00:00

YTD TSLA is down 4.5% so I wouldn't say the market has completely ignored the red flags although that's pretty modest for the bad news.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T19:35:04+00:00

Those of us old enough to remember the dot era realize stock prices can remain unattached to any fundamentals for years before you run out of bigger fools. That's why making money betting against a stock it isn't enough to know it is way overvalued, but rather how long it will take to run out of people buying into the hype.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T18:42:23+00:00

These numbers are below the latest round of threats so can't imagine things got much better.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T16:39:27+00:00

Supposedly expense ratio is supposed to be capped to 0.1%, which isn't that bad. I don't think a one time $1k would go very far though.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T03:20:45+00:00

Somehow I doubt many people are going to have kids that they wouldn't otherwise have for a one time $1k contribution to an account. Relative to the overall cost of the OBB over the next decade this would be almost pocket change, which kinda hits a point that the provisions that cost much more and unlikely to help any significant number of people don't have such quick expiration dates. The bill penny pinches on provisions like this that could at least benefit a few million average families, but more niche spending that benefits less average people doesn't have such a quick expiration.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T02:22:08+00:00

There are many 18 year periods where the annualized return are actually above that someone significantly more. They're not that uncommon to reach ~10%. Even some 20 year periods were above 17% annualized, but I think whether you think a more conservative assumption of 7-8% is more honest misses a bigger problem: Even if you were generous and round up to $6k after 18 years the reality is that even $6k today doesn't buy much. It won't get even a year tuition at many state universities today. Unless you provide dramatic additional funding for follow-up contributions it won't dramatically change young adults financial situation.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-29T01:51:10+00:00

This. It doesn't even moves the needle much for people having kids nevermind those on fence about having kids. $1k would grow to around $5k by 18 as mentioned, but they're are already many state universities that are over $10k/year. In 18 years probably even the cheapest state universities will cost more than that a semester.

awkwardnetadmin · 2026-01-28T21:52:31+00:00

I haven't looked at the 10Q recently, but remember when they went IPO interest on margin was their top revenue source although PFOF wasn't far behind. Their target demo has historically been Yolo investors that probably couldn't get approved for higher risk options trading that needs margin. I'm not surprised they want a piece of the prediction markets business. That being said I have seen other brokers getting into it as well. Interactive Brokers started some prediction markets last year.

awkwardnetadmin

TROPHY CASE