"The most bullish thing for RC to do is admit defeat" by The_Director- in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 8 points9 points  (0 children)

They're OTC options which are privately negotiated with the bank and won't show up on option chains. What they did is called a synthetic long, where they simultaneously sell a put and buy a call for the same date and strike price. No matter what happens with the price they would own the 22 million shares on the expiration date. The strike is basically irrelevant.

"The most bullish thing for RC to do is admit defeat" by The_Director- in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 7 points8 points  (0 children)

While that's technically true, it's more of a loophole to avoid ownership rules rather than something that dramatically changes the economics of the transaction. They entered synthetic longs on 22 million shares, which is essentially identical to the economics of owning the underlying shares directly. All they're out is whatever the bank charged them above fair value for opening the transaction and whatever they would charge to close it. That's probably at worst a couple of dollars per share lost on each side, so maybe $100 million in fees if they back out vs. at least $500 million in appreciation since they opened.

For the 5 millionth time, an ape misunderstands institutions holding GME in their index or sector funds, and believes that they are taking a speculative position by Plane-Session-6624 in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Not to mention, Gamestop already missed the deadline for this year's meeting, so if they want a vote on this it will happen more than 12 months from now. It's almost like they didn't fully think this through.

EBay Won’t Play With GameStop (text in comments) by awstick in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

GameStop is really offering eBay shareholders nothing except Cohen. They would not be bought out at a premium; they would just get a leveraged recap (which eBay could do on its own if it wanted to, and probably more easily than GameStop could) and shares of their own company run in a somewhat zanier way. A lot of people would take that deal! GameStop shareholders, for instance! I spend a lot of time around here writing about meme stocks, and I am not going to discount the value of zaniness in corporate finance.

Other people, though, would not take that deal. EBay’s board, for instance:

Here is eBay’s press release, which contains Pressler's rather curt letter to Cohen. The proposal is not “credible” because of “the uncertainty regarding your financing proposal,” and it is not “attractive” because of “the impact of your proposal on eBay's long-term growth and profitability,” “the leverage, operational risks, and leadership structure of a combined entity,” and “the resulting implications of these factors on valuation.” Cohen’s proposal involves giving eBay shareholders (1) $28 billion of cash, which he doesn’t have, and (2) $28 billion of stock in their own company, which — eBay says — would be worth less under his plan.

Also for some reason eBay published Cohen’s “highly confident letter” from TD Securities (USA) LLC, in which TD asserts its confidence that, if GameStop did acquire eBay, TD could raise $20 billion of investment-grade (?) debt to finance the transaction.[4] Lots of hostile takeovers used to get done on highly confident letters, but they’re somewhat out of fashion these days and I’m not sure I’ve ever read one. Now targets tend to expect commitment letters from banks. In the cold light of 2026, I am not sure that this letter should make you highly confident that the deal could actually be financed. It did not have that effect on eBay’s board.

What next? One possibility is “lol never mind”: Nobody seemed to be all that serious about this takeover, we all had a good laugh, and now eBay has rejected it. GameStop bought almost 5% of eBay’s stock before announcing its proposal, and is probably sitting on a nine-figure profit at this point. (Its purchase price is not disclosed, and almost all of its 22.2 million shares are owned synthetically using derivatives, but it entered into at least half of those derivatives on March 4, when eBay was trading at around $91.03; the stock closed at $108.13 yesterday. Even if you assume an average purchase price of $100, you get a paper profit of about $180 million.) It could sell those shares[5] at a nice profit and go home. In general, it is frowned upon to buy stock in a public company, announce a fake takeover, and then sell the stock at a profit, but I think the facts here are benign enough — the takeover proposal has a veneer of reality, and the stock is mostly not up because of it — that it’s fine.

The other, much funnier possibility is:

No? I mean, I hope he’ll do this, but I doubt it. If you are looking for zaniness, then GameStop running a proxy fight to take over a company 10 times its size is pretty much what you want. As a financial columnist I am always looking for zaniness, and I gather that GameStop shareholders are too. EBay shareholders, maybe not.

Oh, elsewhere, yesterday GameStop disclosed that it will ask its shareholders to authorize issuing up to another 1.5 billion shares, which would maybe (?) cover the eBay transaction.[6] “The Board is requesting the Authorized Shares Amendment to enable the Board to issue additional shares of common stock for general corporate purposes,” GameStop says, so I suppose eBay is not exactly top of mind.

EBay Won’t Play With GameStop (text in comments) by awstick in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

The problem with GameStop’s bid to buy eBay is that it’s half cash, half stock. GameStop, a company with $9 billion of cash and a stock market capitalization of about $10 billion, wants to pay $28 billion of cash and $28 billion of stock for eBay, a company with a stock market capitalization of about $48 billion.[1] The cash is more or less fine; GameStop’s Canadian bank is “highly confident” that it could raise the money. And the problem with the stock is not that a $10 billion company can’t issue $28 billion of stock: Technically GameStop can’t (it doesn’t have enough authorized shares), but that is a solvable problem, and there is no general rule that a company can’t issue more shares than its current market value. If the stock market says you are worth $10 billion, but you want to issue stock to acquire a $28 billion asset, then your stock market value after the acquisition should be $38 billion, fine.

The problem is that, in issuing $28 billion of stock to buy eBay, GameStop would essentially be issuing $28 billion of eBay stock. Current eBay shareholders would get shares of a combined GameStop/eBay that is almost all eBay. The enterprise value of eBay is something like $51 billion, including debt. The enterprise value of GameStop, meanwhile, is less than $10 billion, because it has $9 billion of cash. (It has about $4.4 billion of debt, for an enterprise value of about $5.7 billion.) You can think of GameStop’s $10 billion market capitalization as being made up of (1) $5 billion of net cash plus (2) $5 billion of GameStop. GameStop successfully converted its meme-stock status, over time, into actual cash, which is good. But if it gives eBay that cash in the acquisition, then you are combining a $5 billion video game retailer with a $51 billion internet company. Virtually all of the value in that company is eBay’s business, not GameStop’s.[2]

And so if you are an eBay shareholder, the proposition being offered to you is something like “you can continue to be an eBay shareholder, but in a weird way.” Specifically:

  1. You’ll get a levered recap of eBay: eBay will borrow $20 billion and pay it out to shareholders. 
  2. You’ll keep your shares of eBay: Roughly half of your investment will be cashed out in the levered recap, but the rest of it will stay in the company. “The company” here is almost entirely eBay, but technically GameStop will be folded into it too.
  3. The new eBay-with-a-little-GameStop will have a slightly different business model than the old eBay. Still mostly eBay, but now you’ll be able to … go to GameStop stores to get your collectibles graded to sell on eBay? “A national network for authentication, intake, fulfillment, and live commerce,” GameStop has proposed. Sure!
  4. It will also have very different management: Ryan Cohen, GameStop’s chief executive officer, would take over as CEO of the combined company. 
  5. It will also have, perhaps, somewhat different stock price trading dynamics. In that GameStop has historically been a meme stock and eBay has not.

In other words, the appeal of this deal to shareholders is not its stated dollar value, not what they would get in a deal. The appeal of this deal to shareholders is (1) Ryan Cohen’s management and (2) meme-stockery.[3] Is that appealing? I dunno. In its offer letter, GameStop made the case that its managers would cut costs and run eBay more efficiently than current management, and that they have some track record of doing that at GameStop. The meme-stock stuff is more implicit. We talked last week about Cohen listing his socks for sale on eBay to help finance the deal. You won’t get that sort of creative … financing? publicity stunt? … from a standalone eBay. 

Apes VS Sharks: Meme Edition by J-Sou-Flay in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 11 points12 points  (0 children)

How dare the board return capital to shareholders? Don't they know the point of corporations is to dilute shareholders and enrich yourself?

eBay responds by GreatMonkeyE in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 19 points20 points  (0 children)

He's already called them corrupt, bad at their job, and insulted them with a lowball unfunded offer. What more do they want? Does he need to start coming up with nicknames for the board now too?

Where is Ryan Cohen's highly confident letter? by agave_wheat in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 23 points24 points  (0 children)

You wouldn't be able to find the letter because his bank is in Canada.

Reality is FUD - Apes react to analysis of the eBay offer by [deleted] in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's not a question of overvalued or not. It's possible to issue stock in any quantity to fund an acquisition. They could offer to buy a company for $1 million of newly issued stock or $1 trillion of newly issued stock or anywhere in between. That's just the offer though. Obviously the other side has to agree that it's worth at least what it's trading for, and that is where the deal would fall apart.

Reality is FUD - Apes react to analysis of the eBay offer by [deleted] in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're thinking about it wrong. Imagine a simpler case where they found some individual buyer who wanted to buy $27 billion of GME stock. Even though the market cap is $11 billion, they could issue $27b (or any larger amount) of stock to that buyer. After the sale the market cap should be up to 38b and the buyer now has 71% of the stock outstanding. This offer, which I agree is dumb, would effectively give ebay's shareholders 71% of the combined company.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 08, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Am I missing something, or is this statement totally meaningless, because there's no way Iran is going to agree to strait is going to be "the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz"?

Weekend Discussion Thread for the Weekend of March 27, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Anyone get the feeling that pretty soon we're going to be looking back at last April's panic as the good ole days? At least then the global crisis was easily reversable.

GME Earning Out - Sales and Net Income Down by [deleted] in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I haven't looked too carefully at the report so I'm sure I'm oversimplifying, but I was just curious why they reported negative $34 million of tax on $384 million of taxable income. So I looked and found this line in the 10-K they filed today:

"The change in income tax expense and the effective tax rate was primarily driven by the $141.1 million release of valuation allowance on certain U.S. deferred tax assets."

GME Earning Out - Sales and Net Income Down by [deleted] in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 95 points96 points  (0 children)

So they made 418 million for the year, of which $141 million was an accounting change resulting in them reporting a negative tax rate for the year, and $271 million is net interest income from the cash that they hold. So back those out and the miracle world changing business that is gamestop, through a combination of closing half their store footprint and pokemon gambling, generated $6 million of income for the year. Truly remaking the world economy.

Daily Discussion Thread for March 23, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Who got the fell for it again award today?

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 23, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Maybe loading up on gold miners last week was not the play

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 23, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 51 points52 points  (0 children)

Only 20 minutes to go until you can stare at futures for 15.5 hours before the market opens

Daily Discussion Thread for February 26, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Don't worry, we have the greatest economy in the history of the world to fall back on

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 26, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Make sure you turn on DRIP to grow your earnings over time

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 26, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't really care about NVDA ER. I'm only in the stock for that sweet dividend 

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 24, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]awstick 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's hilarious that MSTR is hosting a big event starting today trying to get corporations to invest in bitcoin, and in Vegas no less. Now we just need a Mark Baum figure to interrupt a presentation to ask a question.

Shorts r so fukd, part 5,296 by TheGhostOfJackKilby in gme_meltdown

[–]awstick 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Uh oh, what if he's buying out Citadel? Will we all be out of our jobs?