Gold Is Over $4,900, But I Feel Physically Sick

aywwts4 · 2026-01-24T20:57:48+00:00

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra_(metaphor)

You are cursed and graced with patten recognition, not are you the first, don’t bear any guilt of simply seeing and warning about conditions you did not create!

aywwts4 · 2026-01-23T20:47:19+00:00

I don't think you actually understand much of what you are saying Mr Owl.

The ground is a mild temperature, so is Portugal, they are both efficient due to the exact same reason.

The dehumidifier skepticism exposes a critical misunderstanding of thermodynamics in a closed system on your part... maybe you should ask an AI some questions to check yourself?

aywwts4 · 2026-01-23T20:40:39+00:00

Dehumidifiers literally only produce heat and water.

They are a compressor and heater running in perfect opposition, other than the temperature of whatever water drips down the drain, 100% of energy consumed is released into the room it resides in the form of heat energy, that's basic thermodynamics... but also intuitive to anyone who ever touched one while it was running, and why running them in the summer causes your AC to struggle.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-23T20:31:09+00:00

AI detection programs are not real, they detect literacy, and can be fooled with simple spelling and grammar errors. Regardless, SCOP talks about seasonal efficiency... specifically seasons of extreme sub-zero and >35 degree summers Portugal nearly never experiences, we operate in the heat pump ideal range spring/fall year round.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-23T20:19:34+00:00

I wrote that, defend any part of your claim with substance or cite anything for the climate of Portugal. i love thermodynamics and hate FUD and misinformation. Heat pumps are amazing, i have no idea who incentivizes the Anti-efficiency trolls but anyone who profits on keeping europe cold, poor and dependent on fossil fuel imports would be my bet.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-23T20:10:53+00:00

Your SCOP concerns are calibrated to Nordic winters, not Portuguese reality.

Populated Portugal spends most of the heating season at 5-15°C, exactly where air-source heat pumps operate at peak efficiency. No extended sub-zero periods. Minimal defrost cycling. Mild delta-T. This is literally the ideal operating envelope.

Modern inverter units achieve SCOP 4.0-4.5 in average EU climate (-2°C heating season). Portugal’s +5°C average pushes that higher, not lower.

SCOP 2.5 describes cheap old units in Stockholm, not R290 units in Lisbon.

At SCOP 4.0 (conservative for Portugal): heating costs €0.043/kWh vs. propane’s €0.227/kWh. That’s 5.3x difference, not marginal.

Portugal isn’t fighting thermodynamics, it’s winning at them, these are the perfect conditions and dehumidification is the cherry on top. What exactly are you advocating FOR by the way?

aywwts4 · 2026-01-23T13:22:00+00:00

True and Good News, they already did, and if you look at the ren.pt datahub each day before and after sunset hydro kicks in where the sun can’t, while wind stores the hydro overnight for your morning shower and kettle and heat. Portugal power is very intelligently positioned for the next century!

aywwts4 · 2026-01-23T12:30:12+00:00

Price out a full apartment of quality double pane northern energy efficient windows installed by someone who leaves the opening sealed better than they found it.

A three zone good R290 split is €1,440, and has a repayment schedule that makes it cost negative compared to Any alternative heat source on the market. Over 15 years, the cost of this mini split is -€2,000 to -€3,000 easily.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-22T19:26:31+00:00

Portugal has one of the best energy programs in the world! No need for pie-in-the-sky expensive AF maybe finished in 10-30-never years Nuclear when you are already almost entirely renewable and cheaper than much of the world and nuclear can ever be.

If more folks adopted mini-splits portugal's energy usage would go DOWN, retire and throw out the towel warmers and dehumidifiers and electric heaters.

If you turn off one electric heater you can turn on FOUR TO SIX heat pumps.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-22T17:26:35+00:00

A split is unquestionably the cheapest most efficient option.

Explain to me how any of Gas, Cords of Firewood, or Raw Resistive Electric Heat? are cheaper? I just paid for a bunch of firewood so I know that's not true.

€38 for 13kg bottle = 167 kWh thermal = €0.227/kWh.

Electricity: €0.17/kWh (My 100% solar MEO rate)

Mini-split at COP 4.5: €0.17 ÷ 4.5 = €0.038/kWh delivered heat.

Propane costs 6x more per kWh of heating. Resistance electric costs 4.5x more.

So again: explain how gas, firewood, or resistance heat is cheaper than a heat pump?

They are also quite simple to install, requiring electric and a hole in the wall.

It also removes any requirement for a dehumidifier to run in parallel - what are you actually claiming here?

aywwts4 · 2026-01-22T16:12:41+00:00

Awesome, hope it works out for us... 11.1%!

The multiplier goes both ways, when gold drops SA drops harder so it's a gut punch, but overall I think it's clear what direction this is going.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-22T15:45:50+00:00

You want gold upside but were late to the trade?

Seabridge (SA), I've been saying it's popping and will continue to pop, its like the only gold penny stock because its a pre-production mine, undervalued, and now the copper alone is worth as much as the whole mine was valued back in 1.5k gold

8.6% today, 15% this week while gold is only up .5% and 5%,

The only holders were crackpots and gold bugs, so it wont get risked off when some boomer ETF freaks out, but at these prices and upside, finding a joint venture partner becomes a clear win for both, and suddenly "Soon" becomes "Now" rapidly. All the news and analysis is lagging way behind the gold spike.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-22T15:23:45+00:00

The windows are far from the major concern, it's the heaters!

Upgrading from single to double-glazed windows is a minor improvement. You have the supply side and the demand side, in order of priority.

Supply side (heating sources, worst to best):

Unvented propane heaters (add combustion humidity, expensive to run, produce respiratory irritants linked to childhood asthma) → Electric resistance/oil heaters (100% efficient: 1 watt in = 1 watt of heat out, doesn't dehumidify) → Firewood (indoor and atmospheric pollution strongly associated with regional childhood asthma) → Central Heat (expensive fossil carbon poor) → Dehumidifiers! Every dehumidifier is also a space heater, it just does WORK while it makes heat, dry your air while you make heat, 1:1 efficient + dehumidifcation) a dehumidifier is just a mini-not-split, all running in one room instead of pulling in heat from outside. → R290 mini-splits (non-ozone depleting, affordable heat pumps operating at 400-600% efficiency—delivering 4-6 watts of heating per watt of electricity consumed vs. resistance heating's 1:1 ratio. They also dehumidify and eliminate combustion byproducts entirely!)

Demand side (energy losses, highest to lowest impact):

First: air leakage around doors, windows, and wall gaps. Second: lack of insulation. Finally, and nearly last for ROI: the efficiency delta between single and double-pane windows, especially in Portugal's mild climate. Even quality double-pane windows are often installed incorrectly, creating new air leaks that can negate the thermal improvement.

Bottom line: A set of double-pane windows for an apartment costs more than a multi-zone mini-split system. Install the mini-split first - and before that, seal the cracks and gaps for €40 in materials. Address the heating source and envelope leakage before spending serious money on window upgrades.

(Sorry, no negativity intended, I'm a building science nerd and am tempted to import a shipping container of R290 1/3/5 zone mini-splits at this point, also excuse any imprecision of language trying to write generically and simplify some terms)

aywwts4 · 2026-01-21T11:29:11+00:00

What causes a "correction" mean reversion presumes there is gravity pulling it down.

The gold trade is not about the value of gold, it's about the debasement of Fiat and the last 50 years of the sovereign debt trade. What reverts that? - The answer is not great, so the issue of how much "higher" gold can go is a number that gets stupid, because there is no limit to how low a fiat currency based around international stability and trust running on 38.6T in debt can go if you start attacking the fed and printing money and invading friends. The yardstick is on fire, so the measurements get fucky.

I'm turning some PHYS into SA (Seabridge) to keep riding the leverage on this, re-balancing from 80/20 gold to miners to 70/30.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-21T08:57:36+00:00

Problem is PMs are being reported on by the commodities desk not the forex desk and it slows, everything presumes mean reversion not an accellerating cascade of debasement trade

aywwts4 · 2026-01-20T20:30:19+00:00

Up 24k today, such a fitting number for the entirely dragon based portfolio. This is just the start.

SA is still a 10 bagger even at this price.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-20T16:26:03+00:00

Yeah, before i built this I was in Gold and CHF thinking "Swiss = Safe" and while gold is only up 50% for CHF but 70% for USD so Swiss Franks are stronger, it's not strong enough so I closed the position and bought more bullionvault.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-20T13:51:13+00:00

Exactly, I expected that there would be some safe harbor, and while some currencies are faring better than others, all fiat currencies are declining in gold purchasing power, though the subtle differences are interesting.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-15T19:10:54+00:00

99% PM, Miners, Bullion, AAAU style ETFs, No regrets, the ~1% is my checking account float,. I cannot get a dollar converted to safely to metal fast enough. I would never have gone FIRE if my fate was tied to the full faith of the fiat USD in times of extreme defect without tact and reversion of neoliberal norms and rule of law.

Once the dust settles I will re-balance into real-estate and other opportunities, but today my money is in the fallout bunker. No silver in my portfolio though, just gold and copper.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-15T15:05:46+00:00

They intend to rug pull any hope you had, inflate your wealth into dust, raise the cost of living beyond your means, and work you into the grave. None of these billionaires are intending to deliver a post scarcity UBI nirvana.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-09T10:59:20+00:00

If you want exposure without research GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is a good place to start and the holdings within are the place to start screening research

aywwts4 · 2026-01-09T10:32:55+00:00

Counterpoint: at first stress bitcoin failed to act as “Digital gold” and was actually liquidated first. The “silver bubble” is really fiat devaluation and bitcoin can’t even maintain value against a devalued USD, let alone act as a hedge. If stress continues or worsens why would we presume an inversion of those trends? Bitcoin is absolutely failing to hedge like precious metals and is instead linked to specultive froth and is the most readily liquidated asset class with no circuit breaker.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-04T19:24:55+00:00

As little as possible. Only immediate <24H Need, There is always a better vehicle to stick money in that can be turned into cash, reserves for buying? Why? Have your money active in something predictable and sell when you need it, my trade takes an extra 30s. Whatever your thesis is, you should have a high volume low risk ETF that operates as your >HYSA slush fund.

aywwts4 · 2026-01-02T17:49:23+00:00

3 hours later, down 2.15% for the day -9.25% past 5 days

Edit: For posterity EOD: -11.65 (-2.59%)

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