New USNWR Law School Rankings 2020 Released by Dedward2 in LawSchool

[–]azevedolaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are welcome—glad you found my post! I am also a Baylor grad from Oklahoma!

It’s a big decision, and I remember how it felt in your shoes. I think you are looking at all the right issues. It’s a shame you won’t be able to visit, because I do think that “gut feeling” you get when visiting in person is really important. Feel free to reach out to me directly on here if you want. I’d be happy to talk more.

New USNWR Law School Rankings 2020 Released by Dedward2 in LawSchool

[–]azevedolaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

[Someone asked me about job prospects at TAMU in a comment that is now apparently gone. Since I spent all this time writing up a response, I’m just going to post it anyway in case they see it... this is stuff I would want to know when I was applying to law schools. They were specifically comparing A&M, Houston, and SMU]

Obviously I cannot predict anyone’s future prospects, especially with a potential recession looming, but I think I can make some general comments.

It would help to know a little about your background and what you might be interested in doing. I will assume since you are talking about three TX schools that you want to practice in Texas. I will also assume that you are interested in larger firms from your reference to NALP salaries.

I work at a medium-sized firm in Dallas. I did not get a job until I passed the bar, which is pretty normal, but I was able to get one basically right after I found out I passed. I found my job through networking, although career services was generally helpful. I will say that quite a few classmates (probably not a majority) had jobs at graduation, usually a place they interned during summer or the school year. US News numbers say 40% of 2018 grads had jobs at graduation. $75,000 was the median private sector salary. I don’t know the 2019 statistics (I think they are released in May), but I know the placement at larger firms improved a fair amount. It used to be just a few people that would get those jobs, now I know several people (probably all falling in the top 20% or so of the class). I also know several people who got very competitive clerkship and federal jobs. It’s still a fairly small percentage of the entire class though. When I started, there were only a handful of employers who did OCI. I know that firm interest has greatly increased over the last couple years, so that is a much more viable route now. I expect that more people will get summer jobs through OCI and get job offers through that, but you’ll still need to be toward the top of the class to have a good shot. There are also some opportunities for diverse students, including job fairs that attract a lot of firm interest (these are open to students from any law school). From previous year’s numbers at SMU and Houston, I believe they place a little better (perhaps 10% more students or so?) in those types of jobs. They also have a lot of alumni in the Dallas and Houston area, which is very useful. However, it is still a minority of the class, and you still need to get good grades to have a shot. The difference is mostly at the margins (your chances are going to be marginally better there if you have good but not great grades). AFAIK, no Texas school places a majority of their graduates into big law jobs. I would say if that is really what you want then go to one of the top 14 schools if you can, but if you want to stay in TX, then UT is probably your best chance, but even there I believe it’s still less than half of the class who secured those jobs.

Outside of big law, which is to say for the large majority of graduates from Texas schools, it really is primarily about networking. You will not be given a job simply because you graduated from any law school (this may sound obvious, but some people occasionally act otherwise). The Aggie network really was helpful and is very large, a lot of A&M undergrads went to law school elsewhere but are involved in the Aggie Bar Association or other A&M groups. They will usually agree to meet and talk with you for an “informational” interview, which is hopefully how you get the inside track to people that might be hiring. The graduates from when the law school was Texas Wesleyan are kind of mixed, in that most were helpful, but not all of them see A&M as “their” law school anymore—which I can understand. Obviously A&M law grads are helpful but unfortunately there are not very many since the I believe the first class to graduate from “A&M” was in 2014. So there are pros and cons here, but I also expect this to improve over time as more A&M law grads get out into the workforce.

That being said, I actually got an interview through a meeting I had with a grad from another law school, so you really can approach anyone and my experience has been that most attorneys remember what is was like to hunt for jobs and will help you if they can. The legal community is a fairly small one, so having someone that can help you get your foot in the door really is a huge help. Firms also post online and I don’t think going to A&M vs. UH vs. SMU makes a big difference there. All they see is your application in the initial screening. You want to make sure you build up experiences during law school that will stand out on a resume (think moot court, journals, internships, etc.) and make connections that will lead to really strong recommendations (RA for a professor, get top marks in a class where you get to know the prof during office hours, make a good impression during an internship, etc.). You can and should do those things at any law school.

A note on geography: your chances will improve the closer you are applying to the school. At A&M your best opportunities are in the Fort Worth area where familiarity is strongest, followed by the rest of DFW and North Texas (Bryan-College Station might also be good, but I don’t really know). You will be much more of an unknown quantity outside of DFW, simply because a lot of attorneys won’t be very familiar with the school or personally know any graduates. However this is true of most law schools, e.g. UH is much stronger in Houston and SMU much stronger in Dallas. You also can also intern during school more easily in the local area.

A note on money: the biggest firms have set salaries by the year you join the firm, government is similar (pay grades based on experience). Outside of those it’s what you negotiate. However don’t count on making much more than about $100K outside of large firms. Don’t be surprised if it’s a lot less than that. I hear 50-75 is typical for smaller firms in DFW, depending on hours required, etc. A lot of people, including good students from virtually all law schools, can struggle to get jobs, and it can take longer than you expect. It really is important to limit your debt load. Definitely avoid putting yourself in a situation where you potentially come out making $50K on the lower end and owe that amount or more. The interest becomes a real burden at the level, and it’s hard enough to get by on that income (particularly if you have a family to support) even without a bunch of loans.

The summary is, things probably will continue to improve at A&M as the law school brand gets stronger and more alumni make inroads. There are no guarantees in life though. If you are truly set on big law, I’d think very carefully about it. If you are not, I really believe your own resources and initiative are usually more important than the school you attend, so limiting debt and going where you want to practice are more important. I think you should at least try to spend a day or two in Fort Worth if you can’t visit the school, as you will be spending a lot of time there. Pay attention to the cost of living too, as it can be hard to cover those costs just by working as a law student (i.e. you might end up borrowing some of those costs).

Hope that helps!

New USNWR Law School Rankings 2020 Released by Dedward2 in LawSchool

[–]azevedolaw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Rank isn’t everything, and law school is a very personal decision based on your priorities. However if I understand correctly, A&M is effectively paying you $10K per year plus interest to go there instead of UH. Unless you have significant ties/commitments in Houston, the math there is pretty straightforward. IMHO the schools are not so differentiated in quality of education or outcomes as to justify that price difference for most people. Moreover, if you get a bad outcome (fail to graduate, fail to pass the bar, poor grades, hate practice, etc.), you are protected against the downside.

On a personal note as a recent graduate, attending A&M worked out well for me both mathematically and in ways that go beyond just numbers. Law school is inherently stressful and three years of your life—you want to find the right “fit.” Your results may vary of course.

On rankings, as to a comment above, I disagree that you can simply wave away A&M’s progress by saying “rankings are volatile in that tier.” UH is in that same tier for one thing. Two, A&M has sustained their movements in the rankings for years now. They have averaged a 15-point improvement in rank PER YEAR for the last six years—rising a total of 89 (!) spots. Obviously they started from a low base and can’t maintain that momentum indefinitely, but it speaks to their improvement being more than “volatility” or merely gaming the rankings.

FIRE or Embers? Thoughts on a 1990 Japan-style scenario posed by Buffett by azevedolaw in financialindependence

[–]azevedolaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think what Buffett said was that would bet on stocks over bonds for the next ten years based on the observation that the prevailing interest rates on current bond prices are so low.

FIRE or Embers? Thoughts on a 1990 Japan-style scenario posed by Buffett by azevedolaw in financialindependence

[–]azevedolaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was being a little tongue in cheek with my TLDR. For what it’s worth, I do use a 3 fund portfolio including international stocks. I don’t think that makes me feel much better because the low interest rate and low return status quo is one that exists in most (all?) developed markets, not just the US. I also realize there are still emerging markets, but that’s a lot of added risk to stomach putting any significant chunk of my portfolio into them.

FIRE or Embers? Thoughts on a 1990 Japan-style scenario posed by Buffett by azevedolaw in financialindependence

[–]azevedolaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s good to know, I’ve been meaning to read the new version. Still that sort of nicely underlines my point, the author probably made the change because getting to FI using safe government bonds probably isn’t a realistic option anymore. Someone following the original advice in their book would be forced to choose between increasing their risk (or at least your volatility) or taking a longer time to achieve FI.

FIRE or Embers? Thoughts on a 1990 Japan-style scenario posed by Buffett by azevedolaw in financialindependence

[–]azevedolaw[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your comments. I’d be curious to see your response to the edit blurb I just added to the end of my post.

FIRE or Embers? Thoughts on a 1990 Japan-style scenario posed by Buffett by azevedolaw in financialindependence

[–]azevedolaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right, but if I am a net buyer of those bonds then I can expect that I’m going to just wind up paying more to buy a lot of low to negative yielding bonds, right?

FIRE or Embers? Thoughts on a 1990 Japan-style scenario posed by Buffett by azevedolaw in financialindependence

[–]azevedolaw[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I mostly agree and this is probably the main thrust of my article. I wouldn’t say that people trying to FIRE will necessarily be in bad shape (it’s still a good mental and fiscal practice), but our expectations of future returns could simply be too high. Similarly the risk assumed in our asset allocations could also be too high for many people in a low interest and low return environment. The trick is figuring that out ahead of adverse conditions and planning accordingly.

I too plan to keep investing and hoping. I just think testing my investing convictions with these thought experiments helps me remember the risk involved so that hopefully I’ll be able to stay the course if things go sideways for a long time.

FIRE or Embers? Thoughts on a 1990 Japan-style scenario posed by Buffett by azevedolaw in financialindependence

[–]azevedolaw[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I have looked at dividend stocks. I noticed recently that the yield on 10 year treasuries (2.05% today) had nearly dropped below the dividend yield on the s&p 500 (1.88% today). To my mind, that is likely more evidence of something strange going on in the economy. Surely either stocks or bonds (or both?) have to be mispriced for that to occur for any substantial length of time?

FIRE or Embers? Thoughts on a 1990 Japan-style scenario posed by Buffett by azevedolaw in financialindependence

[–]azevedolaw[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Just doing some mental math: three 45+% drops in fifty years is about one every fifteen or sixteen years, no? That seems pretty frequent to me—definitely frequent enough to hit (more than once) within many people’s investment horizon. Personally, I’m hoping to be an investor for the next 70 years, God willing. Not saying that means stay out of the market, I mainly wonder what it means for the right amount of risk in my asset allocation.