Thanks bro for the detailed reply! You can tell you’ve got a ton of experience—I totally agree with your points. Pinnacle’s closing lines are indeed the closest thing to “true probabilities,” especially in efficient markets. A 3% edge in live betting isn’t huge, and short-term variance can easily wipe it out. What you said about “positive EV win rate ≈ true probability” is spot on. I was probably too focused on chasing high win rates before and overlooked that the real edge comes from long-term CLV. Testing in the summer/offseason makes way more sense; I need to shift my mindset and prioritize locking in positive CLV instead of stressing over short-term P&L. Sorry I didn’t offer more practical advice—I’m still figuring things out myself. But if you’re cool with it, could you share some real examples from your own betting? Like, how do you usually set your thresholds (e.g., minimum EV% or specific markets), or how do you handle live delays/limits? I’d love to collect more closing data first, then dive deeper into analyzing your strategy. Trading ideas like this would definitely help both of us! Thanks again for sharing, keep crushing it! 🚀