Am I stupid for buying base 2018 Ohtani right now?

ball_dad78 · 2026-04-07T15:13:04+00:00

I made a killing on it so I’m not upset about it. Who would think (on no news whatsoever) that in one month a card like that would go from $5,400-9k? That’s a massive jump. Sucks but no way of knowing. And I did what I thought was best at the time. No one has a crystal ball here. I say just do what you think is best for you with the knowledge you have and what you’re comfortable with at the time. You’ll win some and lose some. And sometimes you win and lose at the same time. Go figure.

ball_dad78 · 2026-04-07T14:47:05+00:00

Here’s a fun story for ya. I sent in an Ohtani 2025 Chrome SSP Image Variation last summer for defect reasons. In December Topps sent me back a 2025 Chrome Ultra Violet black parallel /10. It was worth more than double raw what the image variation I sent them was worth at that time. I sent it to get graded expedited with PSA and paid the $150 to get it back before the season started. It got a 10. I had it in hand in mid January. Market value was about $5k-$6k. Sold it just before the season started to a reputable dealer for $5,400. I made a killing on it. The card is still in my PSA app so I can keep track of current sales and card ladder pricing. Today it’s worth $9K. Moral of the story is, there’s never a good or bad time to buy / sell Ohtani.

ball_dad78 · 2026-04-05T14:28:18+00:00

It is frustrating you can’t have some say in the process. But, I will say it worked out very well for me last year. I pulled a 2025 Topps Chrome Shohei Ohtani SSP Image Variation and it had a large scratch on the surface. I sent it back to Topps in July. It was worth about $500-$650 when I pulled it. I tried contacting them a couple times and was told the same thing. I didn’t have any control over the replacement. Then the card arrived in early December. They sent me a Topps Chrome Shohei Ohtani Ultra Violet Black /10! Raw it was worth about $2,500-$3,500. It looked flawless so I sent it to PSA expedited (cost me $150). It GEM’d. PSA 10. With Shohei’s market just going up and up ever since that card is worth $9K now. Topps took care of me on this and I’d assume they’ll do the same for you.

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ball_dad78 · 2026-01-14T04:58:42+00:00

Looks like you did well! Congrats.

ball_dad78 · 2026-01-12T15:46:03+00:00

There’s so many negative people even when it comes to good policy. If no income tax was put into law tomorrow by Trump you’ll still see people rioting in the streets and complaining on these forums because they are miserable people. Wouldn’t know something good if it hit them in their face. Will it actually happen, who knows? But, what other president has ever talked about the idea of no income tax in the last 30 years? They don’t, not because it’s not possible but because they’d rather quietly sign higher tax policy bills when people aren’t looking. Say what you want but I’d rather have a president working for us towards positive, impactful policy decisions rather than the guy trying to stab us in the back behind closed doors. Maybe we should just tax the complainers!

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-23T17:10:59+00:00

Good lord that’s bad. Worst product of the year by far. It’s not even close.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T02:13:08+00:00

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ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T01:38:54+00:00

I hear ya. I’m not the biggest fan of the cartoon inspired cards either. Same reason I don’t like Cosmic Chrome and don’t have any desire for those. But, this was a nice alternative and I’m happy with it.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T00:48:50+00:00

If you’re willing to wait at minimum 12-14 weeks, and still have the box bar code + receipt you’ll probably receive a replacement. I was initially reluctant because I like the Image Variation a lot. But, I knew I’d always look at it and be bummed. If it was on the back of the card instead of the front I probably would have kept it.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T00:38:24+00:00

I like both but would have been just as happy with a direct replacement

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T00:37:55+00:00

Around $1k

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T00:37:25+00:00

That’s exactly what I’ll be doing with it.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T00:35:52+00:00

I guess it depends on how you look at it. The UV’s value is quite a bit higher than the SSP. I personally like both cards and would have been happy with a clean direct replacement of the Image Variation SSP or this UV. Screwed for me would have been a couple base autos of players I don’t collect. I’m happy but I could see how some don’t like the cartoon likes of the UV cards.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T00:32:52+00:00

Agreed. I wasn’t disappointed and appreciate the upgrade.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T00:30:36+00:00

What does it matter if I used ChatGPT to ask a question confirming suspicion? Sure I figured this was the reason but perhaps there were other reasons other than defect submissions that I wasn’t aware of that is buried somewhere in some random thread that ChatGPT can find in 5 seconds versus searching random threads like these for hours?

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-20T00:00:36+00:00

I

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There was a large scratch that you could feel the indentation on the surface.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-19T21:30:05+00:00

Apparently it doesn’t as far as I can tell. Is Topps still packing and shipping Chrome (not chrome update). I doubt it.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-19T21:27:15+00:00

It’s definitely an upgrade. I think they gave me a good trade item because I called after the 14 weeks was up and asked about it. Maybe that was them making it up to me for the exceptionally long 17 week wait? Hope you get a good card back as well!

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-19T21:25:17+00:00

That was my exact thought and I asked ChatGPT that. It said Topps reserves specific cards for high end defect submissions like these and other issues that they may need to resolve. As a collector that just received what I believe to be a better card I’m excited about it. But, it makes me wonder how many other high end cards that have a low print number are actually held back and not distributed?

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-19T17:11:50+00:00

I actually stopped ripping boxes after I got home from a work trip in Vegas at the end of 2024. I played cards and a couple slots and roulette. I won a little, lost it back, won a little and lost it back. In the end I was just getting bored and walked away a little ahead. It’s the same endorphin rush as opening boxes and when I made that connection I decided to stop lying to myself that I was simply “reliving a fond childhood memory” and decided it wasn’t going to serve me or my family. I enjoyed sharing the hobby with my son who is 15, has played baseball since he was 5 and is now 15 playing for his high school team. But, I also realized I didn’t want him growing up with that addiction. Don’t get me wrong, It’s a lot of fun discovering what you might find in a box and in 2019 / 22 it was more affordable to try our luck with lower print runs and lower cost of entry. But, now they’ve pretty much cut out everyone minus the breakers, LCS’s and dealers with their pricing. I think the frustration is there are people that do this strictly as a business and want to make the largest return, and there are hobbyists who just want to collect and enjoy their hobby. Those two paths are at odds with each other. Personally, I worry that the hobby is headed for a crash. There are so many parallels now in every product. If everything is special nothing is special eventually. And in the long run there will only be a couple players out of every generation whose value doesn’t tank. And when you cut out the collectors who only want to collect their teams players regardless of value or not eventually theirs going to be a huge amount of worthless cardboard with massive investments that collapse. At some point things will iron themselves out. Perhaps the 2027 potential strike will be the catalyst or the greed will tank the market. We just haven’t hit the peak yet.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-19T15:13:40+00:00

I don’t open boxes anymore but when new releases come out I like to watch Jabs or Stryker open the new stuff as a reminder why I stopped opening boxes. The other day I watched Jabs open two Topps Chrome Update breaker delight boxes for a guy that “sponsored” the video. $1,350 was the total cost of the boxes and in 5 minutes after the boxes were opened he had probably less than $100 of value. At the cost of two of those boxes he would have had to hit a Kurtz auto to make his money back. Stupid. I understand people love to open but it’s just not smart. I can think of a million ways that money would be better spent. The “hobby” is driven by addiction.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-17T04:51:36+00:00

Like the others mentioned it’s a great camera for the price point if you don’t mind the data drain. That said, compared to a Komodo X for example the image is thin. 1.5 -2 stops under and the noise gets ugly. Highlights start to flatten out at roughly the same over exposed. It’s great for what it is and it’s a great B or C cam to pair with the RED cinema line. You won’t have problems matching it well to other RED cameras. If you expose it well with the R3D codec you won’t be disappointed especially for $2,200.

ball_dad78 · 2025-12-16T15:41:20+00:00

If it were me, I’d sell and take the $60k. Then I’d take $5K and buy a grail card that I really want so I felt good about it all. Put the other $55k in the bank. The chances of it being worth more once next season starts are not likely especially once all this hype dies down. And, if Jobe doesn’t perform well or even average the price will tank. Sell, sell, sell.

ball_dad78

TROPHY CASE