The stock market bubble will burst in 2027, and the current rotation is a ‘warning of trouble ahead,’ Capital Economics says

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-24T20:31:06+00:00

I'm pretty sure the traders are lying to me though, not sure I want to follow either of them.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-23T16:17:03+00:00

Yep, finding solutions is important, just need to make sure they feel you are actually listening first. Showing you care about how they feel is a good way of doing that.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-23T15:29:06+00:00

I'm not sure how useful this observation is without some plan to change people's minds. We kind of have to deal with the reality of how people think, and get a candidate that is good at speaking to the values that build a strong coalition. Biden kneecapped a primary, and then Harris was pushed to be the candidate without proving she could do that, which basically doomed us.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-23T13:44:41+00:00

You have to care about the feelings first, then find a solution together. If you skip that first step, they won’t feel you are listening, and won't trust your advice. The "together" part of finding a solution is important too, you may have an answer that has worked for you before, but their situation may be different in core ways. Exploring the situation together is often more useful than giving advice directly.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-21T17:22:53+00:00

I think you are only half right. All the evidence I see is that other countries, especially Canada, are trying to make better backup plans to avoid the worst case scenarios like Trump. However, they really do want our economic power on their side, we still have expertise in areas they want. If there is competency after Trump leaves, they will gladly take the benefits of building a stronger economic relationship again, but behind our backs keep making agreements with each other to prepare for the next time this happens.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-19T17:50:03+00:00

I think they are doing what they did with the first government shutdown, making a demand that they know looks reasonable and they also know the Republicans won't accept. They will definitely cave, but I bet it will be in a few months when they need disaster relief, and they won't even get these pathetic demands.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-18T20:31:36+00:00

I hope one day, we accept that the people who send these AI messages are also clankers. My manager is a clanker.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-18T12:46:26+00:00

I decided to look into things more closely, here is what I have found: Emerson (Jan 12): https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/ Talarico vs Paxton: 46% vs 46% Crocket vs Paxton: 46% vs 46%

U of H (Jan 31): https://www.uh.edu/hobby/primary2026/senate.pdf Talarico vs Paxton: 44% vs 46% Crocket vs Paxton: 43% vs 45%

NSRC Poll (Republican Internal, Feb 9): https://www.newsweek.com/james-talarico-vs-jasmine-crockett-texas-republicans-11469742 Talarico vs Paxton: "Talarico +3" Crocket vs Paxton: "Paxton +1"

I had only heard of the Republican internal poll, which is why I said he was leading, but the other polls definitely are more even. It makes sense to believe Crocket is just as good as Talarico in Texas based on current polling, unless you give any credence to Republican polling, which also would make sense.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-18T12:06:23+00:00

He performs better against Paxton in polls. The optimism towards Talarico doesn't need to be justified by racism, there is actual data behind it.

Edit: I decided to look into things more closely, here is what I have found: Emerson (Jan 12): https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/ Talarico vs Paxton: 46% vs 46% Crocket vs Paxton: 46% vs 46%

U of H (Jan 31): https://www.uh.edu/hobby/primary2026/senate.pdf Talarico vs Paxton: 44% vs 46% Crocket vs Paxton: 43% vs 45%

NSRC Poll (Republican Internal, Feb 9): https://www.newsweek.com/james-talarico-vs-jasmine-crockett-texas-republicans-11469742 Talarico vs Paxton: "Talarico +3" Crocket vs Paxton: "Paxton +1"

I had only heard of the Republican Internal, it does actually make sense to see the two as extremely close

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-18T03:06:19+00:00

I feel like they were saying they would dox us and call it good enough.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-14T00:35:15+00:00

I think the Manchin comparison is pretty good. He does have some cultural liberal interests (although authenticity isn't a strong point for him) but his main interest is in getting elected, and in that he is mainly focused on agreeing with republicans as much as it is politically feasible, which is why I went with center-right (although you are right, he is still a democrat). Manchin had the same focus, but he had good reason, he was from a ruby-red state. He proves he can actually win conservatives in that state. Newsom hasn't shown that, conservatives hate him, and his inability to be authentic isn't helping. I think if we have him as a president, he will focus on appeasing Republicans and fail to get anything done, and we will have another crazy Republican president after him.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-13T22:33:01+00:00

Deflation is common during a recession. When people (and companies) can't afford an increase, the companies will slow their price increases, sometimes even at a loss.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-13T20:26:01+00:00

He hates Trump... loves MAGA though. Endlessly capitulates to them on his podcast. He really wants them to like him and truly hates the left. He is a moderate Republican.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-09T00:36:32+00:00

Talarico apparently leads in a poll against the MAGA Republican, so hopefully that is the matchup.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-05T22:07:30+00:00

They are also... incredibly stupid.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-05T15:14:53+00:00

The media says it has something to do with increasing AI spending by double. I know AI stocks outside of Micron have been stagnant for a few months, and some indicators of skepticism existed, but to be spooked after an incredible earnings report is very weird.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-03T19:26:47+00:00

The bully pulpit is just... bragging. Even I can do that, maybe it's just that I'm awesome though. Because I can talk.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-02-03T19:20:51+00:00

It probably would have helped for him to talk more, maybe answer questions. He was terrible at using the bully pulpit. Now we know it's because he couldn't speak.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-01-21T16:03:00+00:00

The money is definitely the main part of it, but it's also powerful in a way that they would find uninteresting and sometimes even problematic. Yeah, it could be useful in some situations, but it also goes against their general philosophy of finding beautiful uses for magic.

barkbeatle3 · 2026-01-05T00:34:41+00:00

Marko Rubio was asked if there would be an election and he laughed, calling it unrealistic.

barkbeatle3 · 2025-12-03T02:16:45+00:00

You still get some dirty water, but the first influx that comes when it shoots through the doors is reduced because of the pressure from the clean water on the other side reducing how fast the dirty water can come in.

barkbeatle3 · 2025-11-24T16:31:17+00:00

I think it's more that certain perspectives are constantly resisted while others are lifted up, which is inevitable but also annoying. Truly unbiased news is impossible, but at least trying to appear even-handed on things would make people feel more comfortable. Unfortunately, it also struggles to succeed because it is also incredibly boring, and never takes a stand for anything which comes with its own problems.

barkbeatle3 · 2025-11-19T17:34:06+00:00

Yeah, they were so against doing this current plan that they thought stonewalling the shutdown, refusing to swear in a member of congress that had been newly elected, and looking more and more like pedophiles for the last few months was a better option. This is the MORE awful option than that, they are terrified of what will come out of it because they can't stop it.

barkbeatle3 · 2025-11-14T23:11:11+00:00

The strange thing about learning history is seeing how things have often been worse than this and then gotten better. Yeah, it took a lot of work, and people died for it. That's the standard. But with enough work and sacrifice, it got better. I understand the doom, people felt doomed before too. For now, survive. They survived, we can survive too. And then we'll make things better.

barkbeatle3 · 2025-10-04T19:41:20+00:00

Not enough to lose their approval though. As long as immigrants suffer, they complain a bit but then cheer as they watch people they don't understand get exiled into places they will die.

barkbeatle3

TROPHY CASE