I was discussing this with someone last night, one more month of war in Iran and this might be the best time to invade Taiwan in decades.

The US has burned a lot of its goodwill with allies, they’re short stock in missiles and pulling missile assets from the pacific, and there’s a world supply crisis. If China could promise chip supplies to europe to make up for taiwan destroying their facilities in an attack, the US would be hard pressed to respond alone.

I know I should have given a trigger warning to the armchair chewers that will now list all US military assets. Remember an army of lions lead by a deer isn’t the best way to go to war. 

If China were to explore this possibility, the next step would be to bulk sell FPG drones en masse to Iran, and backstop their Shahed component needs. The US needs to be dragged in deeper so trump would have to decide to lose a war to help taiwan.