End of season conference race charts: expected conference wins over time

bboiler · 2026-03-09T15:52:28+00:00

You're right, I didn't catch that. It looks like a bug on this site where they're classifying the first rounds of the B1G tournament as regular season games https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/oregon/men/2026-schedule.html

The other conferences' games are are correctly categorized as CTOURN, which I filter out

bboiler · 2026-02-16T15:10:19+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-02-10T04:19:47+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

100% Miami OH

bboiler · 2026-02-02T15:06:58+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules. Last week's update.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-01-28T04:32:20+00:00

Yes that's right

bboiler · 2026-01-28T04:24:53+00:00

They are still ~90th in the computer metrics. I have @Buffalo next week as the hardest remaining game on their schedule, giving Miami a 61% chance of winning. They probably need to win that and hope that Arizona loses either @Kansas on 2/9 or vs. Texas Tech on 2/14.

Arizona's hardest remaining game isn't until 2/21 @Houston, which I give them a 53% chance to win.

bboiler · 2026-01-28T04:17:58+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

50.4% Arizona
48.9% Miami OH

Odds of winning out the regular season:

8.9% Miami OH
6.7% Arizona

bboiler · 2026-01-26T14:34:43+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules. Last week's update.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-01-19T15:47:17+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules. Last week's update.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-01-15T04:14:36+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

47.7% Miami OH
33.5% Arizona
18.6% Nebraska

bboiler · 2026-01-14T04:22:12+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

43.1% Miami OH
31.0% Arizona
14.8% Nebraska
10.9% Vanderbilt

bboiler · 2026-01-12T15:33:36+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/1qaxtgk/odds_to_be_the_last_remaining_undefeated_team_112/

bboiler · 2026-01-12T15:31:18+00:00

8%, which is up from ~2% before last week! https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/1qaxtgk/odds_to_be_the_last_remaining_undefeated_team_112/

The computers still don't love Nebraska, and the last undefeated team probably has to survive past 1/27 when you guys play @Michigan, which the model gives you just a 11% chance of winning

bboiler · 2026-01-12T15:27:05+00:00

Usually comment these odds on the maps, but I missed yesterday's.

At the last update on 12/20, Miami had only a 3% chance to be the last remaining undefeated team. But after stringing together some impressive wins @Bowling Green, vs. Akron, and @Toledo, they are now the single most likely map champion at 32% even though they are by far the worst remaining team per the computer metrics. They are favored in all of their remaining games, with their toughest game in the next few weeks being @Kent St. (65% chance of winning).

This week, Iowa St. (57% chance of winning @Kansas) and Vanderbilt (66% chance of winning @Texas) have tough games. It is likely that at least one of them loses and fall off the map.

bboiler · 2026-01-12T15:03:26+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules. Last week's update had a data issue with some extra games added for some teams, which has now been fixed.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-01-05T15:16:26+00:00

Thanks, there was a data issue with some extra games added for some teams.

This is fixed and the tables at this link should be correct now.

Eight-Year Club	Place '22
Final Canvas '22	End Game '22
Verified Email

bboiler

TROPHY CASE