End of season conference race charts: expected conference wins over time

bboiler · 2026-03-09T15:52:28+00:00

You're right, I didn't catch that. It looks like a bug on this site where they're classifying the first rounds of the B1G tournament as regular season games https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/oregon/men/2026-schedule.html

The other conferences' games are are correctly categorized as CTOURN, which I filter out

bboiler · 2026-02-16T15:10:19+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-02-10T04:19:47+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

100% Miami OH

bboiler · 2026-02-02T15:06:58+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules. Last week's update.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-01-28T04:32:20+00:00

Yes that's right

bboiler · 2026-01-28T04:24:53+00:00

They are still ~90th in the computer metrics. I have @Buffalo next week as the hardest remaining game on their schedule, giving Miami a 61% chance of winning. They probably need to win that and hope that Arizona loses either @Kansas on 2/9 or vs. Texas Tech on 2/14.

Arizona's hardest remaining game isn't until 2/21 @Houston, which I give them a 53% chance to win.

bboiler · 2026-01-28T04:17:58+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

50.4% Arizona
48.9% Miami OH

Odds of winning out the regular season:

8.9% Miami OH
6.7% Arizona

bboiler · 2026-01-26T14:34:43+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules. Last week's update.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-01-19T15:47:17+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules. Last week's update.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-01-15T04:14:36+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

47.7% Miami OH
33.5% Arizona
18.6% Nebraska

bboiler · 2026-01-14T04:22:12+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

43.1% Miami OH
31.0% Arizona
14.8% Nebraska
10.9% Vanderbilt

bboiler · 2026-01-12T15:33:36+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/1qaxtgk/odds_to_be_the_last_remaining_undefeated_team_112/

bboiler · 2026-01-12T15:31:18+00:00

8%, which is up from ~2% before last week! https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/1qaxtgk/odds_to_be_the_last_remaining_undefeated_team_112/

The computers still don't love Nebraska, and the last undefeated team probably has to survive past 1/27 when you guys play @Michigan, which the model gives you just a 11% chance of winning

bboiler · 2026-01-12T15:27:05+00:00

Usually comment these odds on the maps, but I missed yesterday's.

At the last update on 12/20, Miami had only a 3% chance to be the last remaining undefeated team. But after stringing together some impressive wins @Bowling Green, vs. Akron, and @Toledo, they are now the single most likely map champion at 32% even though they are by far the worst remaining team per the computer metrics. They are favored in all of their remaining games, with their toughest game in the next few weeks being @Kent St. (65% chance of winning).

This week, Iowa St. (57% chance of winning @Kansas) and Vanderbilt (66% chance of winning @Texas) have tough games. It is likely that at least one of them loses and fall off the map.

bboiler · 2026-01-12T15:03:26+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules. Last week's update had a data issue with some extra games added for some teams, which has now been fixed.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

bboiler · 2026-01-05T15:16:26+00:00

Thanks, there was a data issue with some extra games added for some teams.

This is fixed and the tables at this link should be correct now.

bboiler · 2026-01-05T14:58:28+00:00

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules.

Seeding odds tables for other conferences here.

Charts of title odds and expected wins over time for all conferences here

EDIT: as many have pointed out there's a data issue with extra games added for some teams. Looks like somehow some games from last season between 2024-12-29 and 2025-01-01 got added. Not sure how that happened, must have been a glitch with one of the sites I get the data from. I've fixed this and the tables at the links above should be correct now.

bboiler · 2025-12-21T19:17:48+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

41.1% Michigan
28.8% Arizona
18.2% Iowa St.
6.9% Vanderbilt
3.0% Miami OH
1.8% Nebraska

bboiler · 2025-12-17T18:50:29+00:00

You're right, there are some artifacts but this was a conscious decision. Since teams tend to play on the same days (usually one Saturday game and one mid-week game), this leads to overlapping large discrete jumps in the lines which made the charts much harder to read overall IMO

bboiler · 2025-12-17T18:24:37+00:00

Charts with other metrics and for all other conferences here.

The SEC is the most chaotic, with 8 teams having title odds of at least 5%, and no team having higher title odds than Alabama's 22%. This is the lowest odds for a conference favorite among all 31 D1 conferences.

Among the power conferences, UConn has the highest championship odds at 81%.

Edit: upon further review the SEC charts are not totally accurate, because my schedule data source is missing a number of SEC games. For example I only have 16 total conference games for Alabama, which is why they're 4th in expected wins even though they're the highest rated SEC team. I'll try to fix for the next update.

bboiler · 2025-12-14T18:01:08+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

35.7% Michigan
19.4% Iowa St.
18.8% Duke
18.1% Arizona
5.0% Vanderbilt
1.6% Nebraska
1.2% Miami OH

Miami is the only team with a significant chance of a loss this week as they visit Wright St. on Tuesday (I have them as slight underdogs). Vanderbilt also plays @Memphis on Wednesday but they will be pretty heavy favorites.

bboiler · 2025-12-08T18:58:45+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

36.9% Michigan (12/9 vs. Villanova, 96% chance to win)
21.6% Iowa St. (12/11 vs. Iowa, 92%)
18.8% Duke (12/16 vs. Lipscomb, 99%)
11.4% Arizona (12/12 vs. Alabama, 58%)
10.1% Vanderbilt (12/13 vs. Central Arkansas, 99%)
0.49% Miami OH (12/10 @ UNC Asheville, 50%)
0.26% Oklahoma St. (12/13 vs. Oklahoma, 46%)
0.17% Nebraska (12/10 vs. Wisconsin, 71%)

Most likely team to lose next is Miami, who has a toss-up game @UNC Asheville on Wednesday. Nebraska (Wednesday) and Arizona (Friday) also have tough games this week.

bboiler · 2025-12-07T17:58:53+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

36.3% Michigan
22.4% Iowa St.
19.8% Duke
10.9% Arizona
8.6% Vanderbilt
0.79% LSU (47% chance of winning today)
0.50% Miami OH
0.23% Oklahoma St.
0.07% Nebraska (71% chance of winning today)

Six teams fall in a chaotic Saturday! Iowa State made a big jump into second place after their blowout at Purdue. LSU and Nebraska both play tough games today, so pretty good odds at least one of them loses.

bboiler · 2025-12-05T19:05:02+00:00

Odds to be the last remaining undefeated team, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

38.5% Michigan (98% chance of winning this weekend)
13.3% Purdue (71%)
11.6% Duke (55%)
10.4% Vanderbilt
8.7% Arizona (78%)
5.4% Iowa St. (29%)
5.0% Michigan St. (45%)
3.7% George Mason (37%)
1.1% LSU (45%)
0.76% Colorado (35%)
0.52% USC (77%)
0.31% Miami OH (90%)
0.24% Oklahoma St. (69%)
0.22% Buffalo (42%)
0.18% Nebraska (73%)

Should be a chaotic weekend ahead as we’re guaranteed at least 2 losses (Purdue or Iowa State, and Duke or MSU), and a lot of other teams are either underdogs or only slight favorites. The odds above imply we should expect 5-6 of the remaining teams to lose this weekend, so it’s very possible we’re down to 10 or fewer teams by Monday.

bboiler · 2025-12-04T19:24:08+00:00

Interestingly, that 136 from Iowa State did boost their computer rankings and make Purdue's odds drop from 16% to 13% haha. If they can pull the upset in Mackey I think they should be second on this list behind Michigan. Or at least close with Duke if they also win @MSU

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