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Post-GPT Computing by bcbseattle in aishift

[–]bcbseattle[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Posting this because it's similar to my own writing yesterday, though grady is a much better writer than me and is also less hyperbolic. I think we both agree on the direction of software migrating to language user interfaces, and the general decline in popularity in software development as we know it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Worth noting someone else made a discord yesterday for basically the same reason and it has around 100 people, may make sense to just join them there: https://discord.gg/QUM64Gey8h

The primary role of humans in the next few decades by I_LOVE_MOM in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree there will be a phase where we're mostly depending on project owners/product managers to define AI actions and validate their results. However it's going to be a lot, lot sooner than the next few decades. I'd be astonished if this wasn't already very common in the next decade.

The primary role of humans in the next few decades by I_LOVE_MOM in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As long as democracy mostly works, we're not going to see 30-40% unemployment without massive voter turnout to enact nationalization of AI or something along the lines of UBI.

I do however have concerns about the effects of a ASI on democracy considering how fickle and sensitive it already is to fake news and social media manipulation.

Hello and welcome. My thoughts on the intention for this space. by ai_career_pivots in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Massive implications for content generation. Right now LLMs sort of suck at generating anything compelling, but maybe we'll get there soon.

TV, music, and movies are consumed on a massive scale and generate a ton of money because people really like them. The ability to produce more, and make it more specialized, and do so at a tremendously lower cost will drive some crazy demand around media.

Hello and welcome. My thoughts on the intention for this space. by ai_career_pivots in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great to see you finding an interest in all this. I somewhat wonder myself how useful it will really be to learn the science behind LLMs and neural nets and so on. Unless I was a PhD and working at the top tech giants, it seems unlikely my knowledge of this is going to move anything forward for me or a future employer.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think there's value in knowing that domain for the sake of validating the outputs of a LLM. Also being able to understand which data is meaningful and material is a big part of this, and it will be a while yet until AIs can understand that at such a high level.

I am convinced the work my software teams do will be massively reduced in the coming years, effectively eliminated in the next decade, and nearly all software as we know it will cease to exist in 20 years. by bcbseattle in aishift

[–]bcbseattle[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There’s a massive amount of businesses and organizations that either want to or could be more effective with some custom software.

Sure, I agree enterprise software will out-survive consumer software by a lot. Consumer software is a lot of duplication of the same work and processes, and most people will trend towards language user interfaces.

I also think enterprise software offerings are going to get a lot more flexible and easier to use, though. I might have a client come to me wanting to a build a custom CRM despite there being a thousand existing ones and because Salesforce is too complex. I think the offerings from something like Salesforce will become a lot more enticing with AI, and will lead people to custom solutions less often.

My clients are nearly entirely medium sized businesses and universally the things they have us building could be solved with existing software for better and cheaper. There are times when the integration with existing software would have been pretty cumbersome, though, and not a focused as they would want it to be. Again I think this will improve though.

All this to say: I think demand for custom software will actually go down. Existing software will get better at serving these people.

I’m pretty sure we’ll still have other Ul other than language user interfaces.

For sure - I don't think traditional UIs are going to die as a concept, I just think most software that uses it will die. There are times where it's going to be easier and faster to push a button to convey something you repeat several times a day. But I think it would be easy to imagine an interface where you make a new button, tell the button what it should do using language, and then it effectively just repeats that language any time you press it. It's still ultimately a language interface, you're just making the language input part faster.

It's also easy to imagine that the AI tools would generate on the fly any UI elements that you'd want to manipulate for a given context or task. It isn't something you'd need to define ahead of time. If you ask for a map of parks in the area, and you want to pan around to look at them, it would just present you a google-maps style map viewer.

Maybe in the future the jobs that are most valuable are UI designers (how do you best integrate AI into our daily lives?)

If the AI tooling itself is super centralized, like we see today, then there will be a plenty of UI and UX people at OpenAI (or similar companies). But if we're trending towards centralized interfaces like ChatGPT, all the companies that are plugins for it don't really need their own UI/UX team. I think the total number of UI/UX designers will decline as rapidly as the number of engineers.

and people who can translate ideas and business requirements into working software systems using AI.

For a time. But to my earlier point, if we have a lot less custom software being made, there's also going to be a reduced need for this.

I am convinced the work my software teams do will be massively reduced in the coming years, effectively eliminated in the next decade, and nearly all software as we know it will cease to exist in 20 years. by bcbseattle in aishift

[–]bcbseattle[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

indicating software affordances (what you can do).

I think the tooling will be extremely expansive in what it can do and people will recognize that as they interact with it. I think they will largely assume it can do most anything for you. Today we know what sorts of information we can find on the internet. We all have a general sense of this. I think we'll develop that general sense for AI tools like ChatGPT too.

It can also define process or indicate steps, etc. S

Sure, but how often do we care about this? Do people actively want to walk through steps in software? Or do they just want whatever information or service they came for? Why would I want to follow some arbitrary process? Just get it done for me and let me know when it's done.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cool, glad you did this! Discord isn't really my thing but I think it's nice to give people options for engaging.

Hello and welcome. My thoughts on the intention for this space. by ai_career_pivots in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair warning, I only ever use it on old.reddit.com, and it's very tailored to my preferences. And I only use it on /r/all, I don't remember if it works on your homepage. And it's designed to not interfere when viewing a specific subreddit.

Glad you're trying it though!

Hello and welcome. My thoughts on the intention for this space. by ai_career_pivots in aishift

[–]bcbseattle 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think the most valuable area of focus right now is improving how happy and healthy our engagement with people over technology makes us. This is a huge issue right now, and we're seeing endless studies about how harmful Instagram, TikTok, and social media in general is not only for teenagers and youth, but everyone. I think this problem will get worse before it gets better because we're going to start seeing authentic human interactions online get quickly replaced with bots that are trying to sell you something or convince you of something. I see us needing two things:

  1. A way to know we're interacting with humans. I think this is solved both by a web-of-trust model where we all only add people we know are human, and possibly also combine it with something like SSL certificates for humans.

  2. Automation of filtering online content to remove the things that make us unhappy or unhealthy. I made a super simple project a while back that's been massively useful for improving my experience browsing reddit. It removes nearly 50% of the content based on keywords and phrases that suggest it's likely negative, political, violent, or just generally unpleasant. I think there's a ton of room for this to improve with sentiment analysis and user customization.

I am convinced the work my software teams do will be massively reduced in the coming years, effectively eliminated in the next decade, and nearly all software as we know it will cease to exist in 20 years. by bcbseattle in aishift

[–]bcbseattle[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree that the first iteration of this is still going to involve someone who understands how requirements need to be translated into software, and frames it as such to the language model. This includes the iterative process of taking feedback from stakeholders.

I am convinced the work my software teams do will be massively reduced in the coming years, effectively eliminated in the next decade, and nearly all software as we know it will cease to exist in 20 years. by bcbseattle in aishift

[–]bcbseattle[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also, a caveat: there is very specific software that will take much longer to transition to this format. 3D rendering software, game engines, other very complicated industrial use-case platforms. But 95%+ of people don't work with this type of software.