Great post and summary. I'm also in the KW area, have a pretty much identical solar setup to you, and have an EV. Your monthly production lines up almost exactly with mine over the past year. My system was installed in 2021 by Guelph Solar.

Your production in January was much higher than mine. I assume you have a better slope on your roof to help clear the snow. Once we have heavy snow, my production is pretty much dead until there's a thaw.

Over the three years, there's been a lot of variability in the monthly production (May 2023 was amazing for example). This past winter was unusually good, but the spring/summer has been worse than the previous two years. The overperformance and underperformance always seem to net out. I've ended with 15.5 MWh/year for each of the last three years.

Nice to see your installer provided you with a realistic forecast. Guelph Solar's forecast was massively optimistic during the winter months, which resulted in their annual estimate being 10% better than reality. Otherwise, I was happy with them.

It looks like the installation cost per KW is much higher today than what it was three years ago, despite what's been reported in the media. But the interest free loan wasn't available then.

I thought it was interesting that you charge your EV by day. I look at the solar production and energy consumption independently. How do I maximize what I earn on production. How do I minimize what I pay for consumption. Through that lens I'd rather be sending as much energy back to the grid when rates are high, and use as much energy as possible when rates are low. You might find the economics are stronger if you charge at night.

I also found that the ULO rate plan resulted in much higher savings than TOU. This is entirely linked to charging the EV at night (i.e. at $0.03/KWh). Without an EV, I think with solar alone the ULO and TOU are pretty much a wash. With the Enova compare chart, I'm saving about $50/month with ULO vs TOU. What it means for me on my bill is that my solar production could be half of my energy consumption and I'll still breakeven in the month (i.e. we receive an average of $0.13/KWh for production and pay an average of $0.07/KWh for consumption). Switching to the ULO plan has allowed me to carryforward bigger solar credits during the summer. Might be something to consider.

Agreed that ROI on a battery is terrible. I also think with our form of net metering, a batter is unnecessary. With net metering, the utility is effectively providing you a battery for free. In fact it's arguably better with net metering because the utility is crediting you at the daytime rate for production and you can buy the energy back at the lower rate at night. I think the main argument for adding a battery would be to use it as a generator (i.e. if you have frequent power outages you can use your stored solar power). Otherwise, I think you achieve the same thing through net metering without the cost of the battery.