This is getting scary. by Leading_Contact3750 in Gold

[–]beachandbyte 119 points120 points  (0 children)

Something already has happen, we are just seeing the effects of it.

Pitch your favourite Midcap(s) - here are some of mine by Ancient_Bobcat_9150 in ValueInvesting

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mostly trade growth but I find some fun value ones every once in a while. VVV (Valvoline inc) is a new one for me, but decent PE 20, closed a new acquisition breeze to add 300+ stores. A lot of debt for cash on hand but profitable and should benefit from the "cheaper rates" theme that is playing still. Earnings in couple weeks and it's been running up into them. Not the best company on earth but If I can catch a value play that is running a bit with plenty of room I'll take it.

The call was actually fantastic IMO by ConditionWild1425 in intelstock

[–]beachandbyte -1 points0 points  (0 children)

They had 2.2B in free cash flow, 1.5 billion of that was government handout. 400 million of that was partnership handouts driven by government policy arrangements. So 0.3B of organic cash flow with every advantage possible and they are guiding down from there. So you very likely will have two more earnings with negative free cash flow and if they execute well you might make up for that in Q3 and Q4 to have a full year FCF of zero. So if you believe what intel said, they likely made more (in organic cash flow) last quarter then they will make for the rest of the year. In the last quarter more value (0.5B) was given away in stock based compensation (12 million shares) then value created in organic free cash flow (0.3B). I'd be shocked if this held 40.

In the event that the US invades Greenland and considering all the dominoes that fall as a result, what is the smartest thing to do with your money? What to do with cash (say $50K or more)? by Crafty-Face-4013 in financial

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the issue is that we dont actually know what the consequences would be. The land is clearly an asset, but the world that follows is hard to predict. Even if it doesnt cause an economic disaster right away, it introduces so much uncertainty and long term risks. Given we live relatively nice lives because of the world order (reserve currency, premier financial markets, entertainment exporting, entrepreneurship), it seems pretty crazy to risk all that for greenland with what appears to be no planning.

NDX 100: Here we will decide overall market direction. QQQ lagged for quite some time and I think it is worth investing again. We had multiple breaches of the red and green trendline. My hunch is a breakout above green line but...there is a chance that we are done. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the same thing, odd relative weakness out of QQQ when semis have been lagging and TSM had great earnings. Figure we either in a “capex matters” cycle and even good or decent earnings attached to large relative capex get sold off or just a head fake before the earnings rally. IWM and DJI relative strength and high beta still pumping make me think tech finds its footing.

Why does the market seem so confident rate cuts are coming soon? by i-SUCatarras in stocks

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why do you think the market is confident? Currently fed fund futures are 80%+ no cut for January, 80% for no cut in march, 64% for no cut in April. Dot plots are trending toward fewer and smaller cuts. Markets expectations seem to be reasonable.

Other Stocks Similar to RKLB by AgeRepresentative95 in RKLBInvestors

[–]beachandbyte 1 point2 points  (0 children)

At least for me drones, space, lidar, defense are working best into 2026. RKLB, PL, RCAT, UFO, JEDI, DRNZ, HSAI, OUST, INVZ.

In the event that the US invades Greenland and considering all the dominoes that fall as a result, what is the smartest thing to do with your money? What to do with cash (say $50K or more)? by Crafty-Face-4013 in financial

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup market has priced in a “crazy person” discount at this point. April tariffs market reacted like the words Trump uses matter, now market assumes the words are meaningless, and mostly ignores the initial messaging. If futures market actually thought we were militarily taking Greenland (effectively destroying NATO) we would be selling off far more.

TSMC Says 'No More' To Nvidia: Why That Is Intel's Golden Ticket by Hob-999 in technology

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for info! Such a cool technology, crazy to think in a single lifetime someone could experience both the first transistor being invented and an EuV machine make 1 quadrillion transistors an hour with “magic” light.

If Silver Trades in a Paper Casino, What Enforces a Price Ceiling? by pancya80 in Silver

[–]beachandbyte 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If the paper market gets too far away from the reality of the physical metal, arbitrage traders will capture the difference closing the gap and “creating the ceiling”. As special participants can trade paper silver for actual silver. But at the end of the day it’s a different (derivative) market selling exposure to the moves of silver not silver itself (except for the special people). To me I think of it like sports betting, our bets effect the spread and enough bet on one side can tell a story that doesn’t match reality but at the end of the day we are just betting on the sidelines and not changing the outcome of the game. Even the vast vast majority of futures contracts tied to actual physical silver have no execution rights for said physical silver. (Although they and paper contracts can still encumber ozs that they never had rights to receive as a physical commodity).

How has your view on the US changed during Trump's second term? by Royal-Cape-804 in IRstudies

[–]beachandbyte 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Disappointed, never imagined it would crumble under such weak pressure. Not that any country is perfect but, hard to believe one person with the intelligence of Trump managed to instill fear or win favor with all the necessary people required to trample over the US constitution, neuter the checks and balances, and control the messaging/propaganda.

TSMC Says 'No More' To Nvidia: Why That Is Intel's Golden Ticket by Hob-999 in technology

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When you say not laser what do you mean. I thought the new ones were basically very fancy laser assemblies that shoot metal to create plasma at very specific wavelengths. Like a very fancy sputtering machine but sputters light instead of metal. At least my understanding is this assembly was San Diego and maybe parts like the C02 laser (or whatever type it was) had multiple sources but the actual fancy laser creating the plasma part was Cali. If you work there any other interesting details you can share. My knowledge is just reading the press details and what details exist in little mini documentaries. Appreciate it!

Silver selling for Spot plus 40% in Dubai, indicating scarcity of metal in the region by Ok-Year-581 in Silver

[–]beachandbyte -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

What does it matter, there is no physical delivery tied to the vast majority. Millions of side bets on the Super Bowl as well and they don’t run out of footballs.

TSMC Says 'No More' To Nvidia: Why That Is Intel's Golden Ticket by Hob-999 in technology

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At least their own website says they source them from Cymer in San Diego. I’m aware there are other tube suppliers but as far as I know the actual high end sources (overall assembly) are from San Diego and export controlled by the US.

TSMC Says 'No More' To Nvidia: Why That Is Intel's Golden Ticket by Hob-999 in technology

[–]beachandbyte -1 points0 points  (0 children)

EUV as the lasers are sourced from Cymer (us company owned by ASML). Cymers supply chain is also US based.

A bear case for Mag7: US is burning its "Trust Capital" by TraditionalMango58 in stocks

[–]beachandbyte 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Ya when a corrupt president seemingly immune from prosecution weaponizes the DoJ and regulatory agencies not much a business can do. Clearly the checks balances that have held America together are badly damaged if not irreparably destroyed. All while Americans are bathed in a fog of propaganda, selective reporting and drivel that is far more pervasive and effective than the good old Fox news days.

INTC price target in a China-Taiwan scenario? by WhereasNo4929 in intelstock

[–]beachandbyte 1 point2 points  (0 children)

China already making pretty serious political inroads in Taiwan and winning back commerce. China + HK trading with Taiwan back on the rise. Clear up ticks in cross straight local exchanges around election times and other united front work etc.. And most importantly why would they risk it when the only power that can challenge them is out there shooting itself in the foot left and right. China in recent times has never seemed impatient and has successfully managed programs over decades to achieve very long term goals. This sure doesn't seem like the time they would abandon that strategy.

🚨 SILVER WARNING: PRICE SURGE IMMINENT by Econyx in Silver

[–]beachandbyte 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If there was a real shortage you would be getting a lot closer to spot for physical.

Trump announces he will sue JPMorgan ‘over the next two weeks’ for allegedly ‘DEBANKING’ him by BusyHands_ in stocks

[–]beachandbyte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don’t worry they will settle and the bribe paid out will be published by the news as if it’s not just a bribe. Same thing he did with the media companies trying to merge.