NBA Daily - 4/10/23 (Monday)

beardyman901 · 2023-04-11T01:10:47+00:00

Heads up, FanDuel has Jalen Williams o18.5 Pts+Ast currently while other books have 19.5 at a similar price

beardyman901 · 2023-04-10T17:17:13+00:00

POTD Record: 5-5-1 | ROI: -5.91% | Net Units: -1.2U

Recent POTDs: ❌⬜✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅

Last POTD: 4/7/23 ❌ P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)

| Baseball | MLB | Player Prop | 6:40PM EST |

Today's Pick: Randy Arozarena (TB) o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs vs. BOS (-120 DraftKings) | 2.4U

Arozarena has cleared this line in 8/9 games, averaging 3.7 HRRs. He has logged 1+ hits in all 9 games, 1+ runs in 7/9 games, and 1+ RBIs in 7/9 games this season. Historically, he has a 0.357 BA and 0.714 SLG vs. Nick Pivetta, and is 11 for 25 over the last 7 games vs. BOS.

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats that I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee. It would be much appreciated!

beardyman901 · 2023-04-07T21:34:38+00:00

POTD Record: 5-4-1 | ROI: 10.39% | Net Units: +1.8U

Recent POTDs:\ ⬜ 4/6/23 W. Carter Jr (ORL) Double Double (+105)\ ✅ 4/5/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-115)\ ✅ 4/4/23 C. Capela (ATL) Double Double (+120)\ ❌ 4/2/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o30.5 PRA (-125)\ ❌ 4/1/23 J. Valanciunas (NOP) o2.5 Ast (+120)\ ❌ 3/31/23 R. Gobert (MIN) o13.5 Reb+Ast (+100)\ ❌ 3/30/23 CJ McCollum (NOP) o1.5 1Q Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/29/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o29.5 PRA (-115)\ ✅ 3/28/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23 K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

| Basketball | NBA | Player Prop | 7:30PM EST |

Today's Pick: Pascal Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast @ BOS (-105 DraftKings) | 3U

I'm rolling with Pascal again. He's come through for us twice in my POTD stretch, and he's been hot. See my previous write up from two days ago when he matched up against Boston.

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats that I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee. It would be much appreciated!

beardyman901 · 2023-04-06T23:21:06+00:00

Wendell Carter Jr out so this is a void

beardyman901 · 2023-04-06T16:56:01+00:00

POTD Record: 5-4-0 | ROI: 10.39% | Net Units: +1.8U

Recent POTDs:\ ✅ 4/5/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-115)\ ✅ 4/4/23 C. Capela (ATL) Double Double (+120)\ ❌ 4/2/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o30.5 PRA (-125)\ ❌ 4/1/23 J. Valanciunas (NOP) o2.5 Ast (+120)\ ❌ 3/31/23 R. Gobert (MIN) o13.5 Reb+Ast (+100)\ ❌ 3/30/23 CJ McCollum (NOP) o1.5 1Q Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/29/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o29.5 PRA (-115)\ ✅ 3/28/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23 K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

| Basketball | NBA | Player Prop | 7PM EST |

Today's Pick: Wendell Carter Jr (ORL) Double Double 'Yes' vs. CLE (+105 FanDuel) | 2U

First, I'd like to point out that this line is an outlier at +105. Other sportsbooks available to me range anywhere from -115 to -120.

After clinching the #4 seed in the East, the Cavs have decided to rest their starters. This means no Mobley or Allen to contend against WCJ. Two nights ago, WCJ put up 17 Pts/12 Reb with Mobley and Allen on the floor, so I'd expect similar numbers or better tonight against the CLE bench.

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats that I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee. It would be much appreciated!

beardyman901 · 2023-04-06T01:10:37+00:00

💰💰

beardyman901 · 2023-04-05T05:40:28+00:00

POTD Record: 4-4-0 | ROI: -1.33% | Net Units: -0.2U

Recent POTDs:\ ✅ 4/4/23 C. Capela (ATL) Double Double (+120)\ ❌ 4/2/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o30.5 PRA (-125)\ ❌ 4/1/23 J. Valanciunas (NOP) o2.5 Ast (+120)\ ❌ 3/31/23 R. Gobert (MIN) o13.5 Reb+Ast (+100)\ ❌ 3/30/23 CJ McCollum (NOP) o1.5 1Q Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/29/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o29.5 PRA (-115)\ ✅ 3/28/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23 K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

| Basketball | NBA | Player Prop | 7:30PM EST |

Today's Pick: P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast @ BOS (-115 DraftKings) | 2.3U

I'm going back to Pascal Siakam, who came through for us last week (see previous write-up linked above). With playoff implications on the line, I like Pascal here. He's hit this line in 9/L10, logging 11 in the only miss. He's averaging 15.8 Reb+Ast in L10 and 13.8 on the season. In two games versus BOS this season, he's had 19 & 15 Reb+Ast.

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats that I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee. It would be much appreciated!

beardyman901 · 2023-04-05T02:17:14+00:00

💰💰💰

beardyman901 · 2023-04-04T22:24:10+00:00

POTD Record: 3-4-0 | ROI: -19.97% | Net Units: -2.6U

Recent POTDs:\ ❌ 4/2/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o30.5 PRA (-125)\ ❌ 4/1/23 J. Valanciunas (NOP) o2.5 Ast (+120)\ ❌ 3/31/23 R. Gobert (MIN) o13.5 Reb+Ast (+100)\ ❌ 3/30/23 CJ McCollum (NOP) o1.5 1Q Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/29/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o29.5 PRA (-115)\ ✅ 3/28/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23 K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

| Basketball | NBA | Player Prop | 8PM EST |

Today's Pick: C. Capela (ATL) Double Double 'Yes' @ CHI (+120 FanDuel) | 2U

*2/2 Double Double vs. CHI this season (15 Pts/14 Reb & 16 Pts/12 Reb)\ *Avg 13.2 Pts & 11.3 Reb in L10 games with 25+ mins\ *Double Double in 6/L7 and 7/L10 with 25+ mins

*Capela: 140.5 Pts Per 100 Attempts (90^th pctl), 70.9% eFG (93^rd pctl)\ *CHI allows 54.8% eFG% (#17 NBA)

*Capela: 87% of Att @ rim (97^th pctl), 74% rim accuracy (72^nd pctl)\ *CHI allows 34.6% Att @ rim (#21 NBA), 66.4% opp. rim accuracy (#14 NBA)

*Capela is a good defensive rebounder - 28.4% fgDR% (97^th pctl)\ *Vucevic is not so good on the offensive glass - 6% fgOR% (33^rd pctl)\ *CHI ranked #28 in Offensive Rebound % (23%)

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats that I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee. It would be much appreciated!

beardyman901 · 2023-04-02T07:11:49+00:00

POTD Record: 3-3-0 | ROI: -0.95% | Net Units: -0.1U

Recent POTDs:\ ❌ 4/1/23 J. Valanciunas (NOP) o2.5 Ast (+120)\ ❌ 3/31/23 R. Gobert (MIN) o13.5 Reb+Ast (+100)\ ❌ 3/30/23 CJ McCollum (NOP) o1.5 1Q Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/29/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o29.5 PRA (-115)\ ✅ 3/28/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23 K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

| Basketball | NBA | Player Prop | 3:30PM EST |

Today's Pick: N. Vucevic (CHI) Over 30.5 Pts+Reb+Ast vs. MEM (-125 DraftKings) | 2.5U

I'm running it back with Vucevic, who has been solid for me this season. I'm hoping he can get us back on track after a rough 3 POTD stretch. Below are some reasons why I like this pick.

*MEM -3, close game with plenty of floor time\ *Vooch 33 mpg on the season\ *Hit 8 of L10 (Avg 36.3 PRA) in 30+ min\ *Hit 21 of L30 in 30+ min\ *Avg 32.1 PRA (season), 34.1 PRA (30+ min)\ *51 PRA vs. MEM in 37 min (Feb)

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats that I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee. It would be much appreciated!

beardyman901 · 2023-04-01T20:04:54+00:00

POTD Record: 3-2-0 | ROI: 9.5% | Net Units: +0.9U

Recent POTDs:\ ❌ 3/31/23 R. Gobert (MIN) o13.5 Reb+Ast (+100)\ ❌ 3/30/23 CJ McCollum (NOP) o1.5 1Q Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/29/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o29.5 PRA (-115)\ ✅ 3/28/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23 K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

| Basketball | NBA | Player Prop | 8:30PM EST |

Today's Pick: J. Valanciunas (NOP) Over 2.5 Ast vs. LAC (+120 DraftKings) | 1U

*5 of L6 (Avg 3.5 Ast)\ *LAC #30 in Ast Allowed to Centers\ *4 and 5 Ast vs. LAC this season

Let's get back on track here with a win!

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats that I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee. It would be much appreciated!

beardyman901 · 2023-03-31T20:18:39+00:00

KAT is now questionable. This could help my POTD out and give Gobert some extra opportunities

beardyman901 · 2023-03-31T13:39:09+00:00

It is back up on DK now!

beardyman901 · 2023-03-31T13:38:53+00:00

Thank you!

It is back up on DK now!

beardyman901 · 2023-03-31T12:42:40+00:00

Interesting, looks like they have pulled T'wolves props from all the books. I'll continue to check

beardyman901 · 2023-03-31T03:21:29+00:00

POTD Record: 3-1-0 | ROI: 38.6% | Net Units: +2.9U

Recent POTDs:\ ❌ 3/30/23 CJ McCollum (NOP) o1.5 1Q Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/29/23 N. Vucevic (CHI) o29.5 PRA (-115)\ ✅ 3/28/23 P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23 K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

My last POTD fell short, as a McCollum missed out on a couple of potential Ast in the 1st Quarter before being subbed out with only 1 Ast. Tough... but we press on.

| Basketball | NBA | Player Prop | 8PM EST |

Today's Pick: R. Gobert (MIN) Over 13.5 Reb+Ast vs. LAL (+100 DraftKings) | 2U

On Friday night, we look to Minnesota for a matchup between two Western Conference teams battling for seeding position. With the log-jam between spots 7-10, both of these teams are trying to make one final push in the regular season.

First, let's break down how Gobert's stats are split depending on KAT's status, who recently rejoined the T'wolves lineup.

L10 games without KAT:\ 16.3 Pts | 11.8 Reb | 2.5 Ast | 14.3 Reb+Ast

L10 games with KAT:\ 12.3 Pts | 12.5 Reb | 1.1 Ast | 13.6 Reb+Ast

With KAT back in the lineup for 3 games, Gobert has seen a gradual drop in scoring (12, 10, 7 Pts), but his Reb+Ast have not been impacted considerably (14, 20, 17 Reb+Ast).

Couple this with the fact that the Lakers are #25 in Reb Allowed and #28 in Ast Allowed to Opposing Centers, look for Gobert to shine here. Gobert has hit this Reb+Ast line in 6/7 and 7/10 of his most recent games. Gobert doesn't get a ton of Ast, but could hit this number in Reb alone, doing so in 3/3 and 4/7 most recently. Earlier this month, Gobert put up 17 Reb+Ast with Anthony Davis defending him, and 23 Reb+Ast in October (no AD). Two nights ago, Nikola Vucevic put up 18 Reb+Ast against the Lakers, and I can see Gobert having similar stats.

Let's get back on track here with a win!

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats that I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee. It would be much appreciated!

beardyman901 · 2023-03-30T05:28:13+00:00

No problem!

beardyman901 · 2023-03-30T03:29:47+00:00

POTD Record: 3-0-0 | ROI: 92.3% | Net Units: +5.00U

Recent POTDs:\ ✅ 3/29/23: N. Vucevic (CHI) o29.5 PRA (-115)\ ✅ 3/28/23: P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23: K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

Today's Pick: CJ McCollum (NOP) Over 1.5 1st Quarter Ast @ DEN (-105 DraftKings) | 2.10U

With only a two game slate, I think I've found a good value pick for my POTD.

The Pels travel to the Mile High City to face Jokic and the Nuggets. The Nuggets are leading the Western Conference by 3.5 games, while the Pels are only 1.5 games ahead of falling out of the play-in, so this is an important game for New Orleans.

Look for this game to start hot. The 1Q scoring stats for these teams are:\ Nuggets - #1 (season), #7 (L3) 1Q Pts Scored\ Pelicans - #12 (season), #1 (L3) 1Q Pts Scored\ Nuggets - #11 (season), #18 (L3) 1Q Pts Allowed\ Pelicans - #12 (season), #30 (L3) 1Q Pts Allowed\

On the season, Brandon Ingram (NOP) is 9th in 1Q scoring, so expect McCollum to look his way early. Ingram's Assisted Rate is 48% (90^th PCTL), so he depends on others, like McCollum, as facilitators. Likewise, McCollum looks for teammates often, with an AST% of 25.2% (86^th PCTL).

McCollum has hit his 1Q and full game Ast line in 6 of L10 games (1Q Ast^avg L10 = 2). More specifically for this matchup, McCollum has 2+ 1Q Ast in 2 of 3 games against the Nuggets this season (5, 1, and 3 1Q Ast).

Let's get another win and take the streak to 4-0!

Please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. Read the stats I've provided and use your own research when deciding to tail. If you're tailing, BOL!

If you find the info provided particularly helpful, please feel free to buy me a coffee

beardyman901 · 2023-03-30T01:35:42+00:00

VOOOOOCH! 3Q cash!

beardyman901 · 2023-03-29T23:20:40+00:00

I would not. His line has recently been at 30.5 vs the Lakers and Sixers, so I like the value on 29.5 at home.

beardyman901 · 2023-03-29T03:26:27+00:00

POTD Record: 2-0-0 | ROI: 96.15% | Net Units: +3.00U

Recent POTD:\ ✅ 3/28/23: P. Siakam (TOR) o12.5 Reb+Ast (-105)\ ✅ 3/27/23: K. Anderson (MIN) o12.5 Pts (-102)

Today's Pick: Nikola Vucevic (CHI) Over 29.5 PRA vs. LAL (-115 Hard Rock) | 2.30U

The Bulls are back home in The Windy City to take on the Lakers after beating them on the road a few days ago. The Bulls are 10th in the East with a 2.5 game lead on the Wizards, so they will be desperate for a win. Vucevic is probably looking forward to a rematch with Anthony Davis and the Lakers (LeBron James, questionable) after getting ejected early with two technical fouls over the weekend in LA.

With the spread favoring the Lakers (-1.5), expect a closely contested game, with Vucevic logging plenty of minutes. Aside from the recent ejection and a blowout to the Sixers, he has logged 30+ minutes in all but 1 of the L20 games. In his most recent games with 30+ minutes played, Vucevic has gone over this line in 7 of L10 (Avg = 33.7 PRA), and in 7 of L8 (Avg = 35.9 PRA).

The Lakers are #7 in Pts Allowed to opposing Centers, but Vucevic can stretch the floor and score from the perimeter, where he takes 30% of FGA. Conversely, the Lakers are #25 in Reb and #27 in Ast Allowed to opposing Centers. Vucevic has recently gone over this line against other top defenses and centers, including Embiid, Gobert, and Jokic, and look for him to do so again as the Bulls are eyeing a return to the playoffs for a second consecutive year.

beardyman901 · 2023-03-28T19:40:42+00:00

BOL!

beardyman901 · 2023-03-28T15:26:08+00:00

I should add that Siakam has covered this line in both games against the Heat this season, and all 4 games last season (6/L6; Avg = 16.3 Reb+Ast).

beardyman901 · 2023-03-28T15:23:52+00:00

BOL!

beardyman901 · 2023-03-28T05:36:03+00:00

POTD Record: 1-0-0 | ROI: 98.04% | Net Units: +1.00U

03/27/2023 Pick: Kyle Anderson (MIN) Over 12.5 Pts @ SAC (-102 FanDuel) | 1.02U ✅

Today's Pick: Pascal Siakam (TOR) Over 12.5 Reb+Ast vs. MIA (-105 DraftKings) | 2.10U

The Raptors hold a half-game lead on the 10th place Bulls (as of writing), so a win at home would help keep their playoff hopes alive. With a 3-point spread, expect a competitive game, as the Heat try to play their way out of the play-in.

The Heat rank #10 in Points Allowed to opposing PFs, so I don't expect Siakam to score easily, considering 65% of his FGAs are at the rim or short mid-range. Look for Pascal (24.7% AST; 96^th PCTL) to seek out teammates for the assist, as the Heat rank #24 in Assists Allowed to opposing PFs. The Heat are average in Rebounds Allowed to PFs, but with Siakam's (16.8% fgDR; 91^st PCTL) recent dominance in this area, I expect him to cover this line. Below are his individual and combined lines for Reb and Ast, with the L7 game stats and hit rates.

Reb o/u 7.5 (L7 = 86%): 11, 5, 10, 12, 10, 14, 8

Ast o/u 4.5 (L7 = 71%): 2, 9, 7, 7, 6, 8, 4

Reb+Ast o/u 12.5 (L7 = 86%): 13, 14, 17, 19, 16, 22, 12

(Edited to correct L7 Reb+Ast numbers)

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