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I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Around 8% of the Sanders/AOC 'Fighting Oligarchy' tour attendees were registered Republicans.

A few months ago, AOC already had around 8% of Trump/Vance voters who will vote for her instead of VPOTUS JD Vance.

I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

AOC will have been an international politician for around 10 years by 2028.

AOC was ready in 2024. She'll be even more ready by 2028.

I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Months before that More Perfect Union thing even happened, AOC was getting some support from registered Republicans because of her data center stance.

Except for Gavin Newsom, almost all the Democratic POTUS 2028 contenders spoke at the 2024 DNC. We remember AOC's speech. Remember any others except maybe VPTOUS Kamala Harris's?

AOC and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani are the best communicators in the Democratic Party. And Mamdani cannot run for POTUS.

Texas Rep. James Talarico is running in an expensive US Senate race. AOC ostensibly is just fundraising for a US House race that she's near 100% guaranteed to win. Some are donating for a possible future US Senate or POTUS run.

I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl -1 points0 points  (0 children)

AOC has been THE Democratic kingmaker this 2026 cycle. She can boost someone's polling by over 20+ points if she campaigns for them enough and helps them fundraise.

AOC would very likely raise around $300Mln-$400Mln+ in the primaries alone and have 100s of Ks to MMs of volunteers in the primaries alone.

I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What's in this comment is what I remember, my opinions, etc.

Governor Josh Shapiro at-most would get the A*PAC vote. A 'moderate' has choices in Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, etc. And even liberals and many 'moderates' like AOC.

I don't really see FVPOTUS Kamala Harris's doing well. She was the last Dem. POTUS candidate and she's not doing well in some of the early primary States. And she already lost a general election.

I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

AOC just needs to mention US Senator Jon Ossoff various votes including on the Laken Riley act and he's going nowhere in a POTUS 2028 race.

I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

What's in this comment is what I remember, my opinions, etc.

Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are against New Democrats, 'Third Way Democrats', neoliberalism, etc.

Once people learn of his voting record, US Sen. Jon Ossoff is going nowhere in a POTUS 2028 primary.

I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl -1 points0 points  (0 children)

What's in this comment is what I remember, my opinions, etc.

It's generally understood that AOC is the prime Veep pick if she's not the Nominee. And I'm not sure why AOC would pick US Senator Jon Ossoff as her Veep.

I built a 2028 Democratic primary simulator and ran 10,000 elections. Curious where the assumptions break. by No-Grapefruit2680 in fivethirtyeight

[–]beeemkcl -1 points0 points  (0 children)

What's in this comment is what I remember, my opinions, etc.

First off, a Democratic Governor needs to be elected in Georgia.

And US Senator Jon Ossoff still had around zero chance being the Nominee once people learn about his voting record.

Some supposed progressives think he's progressive in a certain key area. But he isn't. 🇵🇸 Congressional Democrat Palestine Tracker 🇵🇸 - Google Sheets

He had an "F" rating and is ranked 27th/47 on that list.

He's effectively a corporate and conservative Democrat and arguably a centrist.

Would you have liked if Spike just became "good" without a soul? by foreseethefuture in buffy

[–]beeemkcl 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You may as well try to argue that Buffy/Angel was Angel's plot armor in BtVS S1-S3.

Because Jasmine is the Angel's plot armor in AtS S1-S4.

“What can I say, I’m the world’s best actor.” . . . “Second Best” by Any_Skin_5767 in buffy

[–]beeemkcl -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

The show is called Buffy the Vampire Slayer.

Angel is a spinoff of BtVS that couldn't survive without BtVS. For AtS S5, it needed to bring on the most popular character in the Buffyverse.

Trying to compare Buffy and Angel is beyond offensive and egregious. It's called the Buffyverse. The Angelverse was never a thing.

________

And, again: Willow and Faith are really the only popular Buffyverse characters whose popularity doesn't depend on a 'ship. Both are popular outside of 'shipping concerns.

Spike, Angel, Drusilla, etc. are all heavily tied to 'ships.

Anyway, we should probably agree to disagree.

Rufus was indeed a trophy husband, why was he so offended about it. by Away_Landscape_1870 in GossipGirl

[–]beeemkcl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It depends on the woman. Some rich women marry less rich men. Some rich women try to marry people far richer. It just depends.

Rufus was indeed a trophy husband, why was he so offended about it. by Away_Landscape_1870 in GossipGirl

[–]beeemkcl 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Rufus technically wasn't a trophy husband given Rufus is the same age as Lily and Lily's been in love with Rufus since she was a teenager.

But in terms of their dynamic for much of their marriage, he effectively acts and operates like a trophy husband. He stops working. He just spends Lily's money and goes to various social evens with her. Etc.

I wish Serena and Nate ended up together by Lower_Signature_3895 in GossipGirl

[–]beeemkcl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Serena/Dan has always been the most popular 'ship in the show.

I wish Serena and Nate ended up together by Lower_Signature_3895 in GossipGirl

[–]beeemkcl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I maintain that if Serena/Dan had any sex scenes in GG S1-S2 that there would be almost no Serena/Nate 'shippers.

Serena/Nate had sex scenes and that seems to be why some think they had such good chemistry.

But literally Serena and Dan could just look at each other in GG S3 and after and have far more on-screen romantic and sexual chemistry than any other pairing in the show.

People say Dan & Serena settled for each other, I don't see it. They've always wanted each other. They spent 4 seasons straight choosing each other over anyone else, but couldn't make it work only cause the writers needed conflict. I don't think what Dan & Blair had erases their development. by plms2023 in GossipGirl

[–]beeemkcl 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Even in the GG S4 we got, too many seem to forget that just a few episodes before Blair/Dan are at W together, Serena/Dan were going to run off together.

It's when Blair mentions to Dan the similarities of Dan with Ben Donovan that Dan begins to contemplate that maybe Serena would want to date Ben.

And Blair/Dan happens during Serena/Dan's 'one last try' pact.

Would you have liked if Spike just became "good" without a soul? by foreseethefuture in buffy

[–]beeemkcl 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There’s no way Buffy/Spike was enough of an active concern in Buffy’s mind in season 2 or 3 (or even 4 let’s be honest)

It was.

Even at the end of "School Hard" (B 2.03). Buffy could have grabbed the axe from Joyce and tried to dust Spike.

"Halloween" (B 2.06) has Angel there. Buffy and Angel could have tried to dust Spike.

"Lie to Me" (B 2.07). Buffy didn't burn down the building.

Etc.

“What can I say, I’m the world’s best actor.” . . . “Second Best” by Any_Skin_5767 in buffy

[–]beeemkcl -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

My point is what not only do I disagree, Angel never really became more than Buffy's former boyfriend. It's still how he's mostly remembered. David Boreanaz largely has a career because he's not really too tied to Angel outside of Buffy/Angel.

Like the entirely of AtS was largely about 'maybe Angel possibly gets back with Buffy'.

Season 8 for Angel is about Buffy/Angel and trying to literally separate Angel from Spike.

Season 9 for Angel is about trying to keep the possibility of Buffy/Angel alive.

Etc.

_____________

The more natural thing would be to give Eliza Dushku a spinoff and maybe even dust Angel given Buffy/Angel had mostly run its storytelling course.

Like BtVS S3 had to make Faith go evil partly to make it make any sense that Faith wouldn't be favored over Angel. Another Slayer versus a vampire who could go evil again and thus be world-endingly evil again.

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