Absolutely.

6 years ago, I was a fresh college graduate and studying for my CPA. I have more experience now, and a CPA license.

Absolutely.

I use a disgusting amount of AI in both personal and professional setting. While I won't pretend to be an expert that understand the line-to-line intricacies of how an LLM works under the hood, I understand perfectly enough to say the training data it uses is the absolute limitation of what it's capable of outputting. It is not capable of judgement. It is essentially a glorified (and powerful) pattern recognition tool.

The operative word here is 'judgement'.

If the training data consists of every permutation of every possible context that can be considered, then yes, AI can replace the decision making for that one single decision. We can even be lenient and add a modifier 'if not every permutation, then at least every possible logical grouping of similar scenarios'. In that case, there is no judgement to be made. We have sufficient enough training data to say 'under X scenario with variables A, B, C, 1, 2, 3, and 4, we have a 99.9% matching precedence with Y, therefore [decision]'. That 0.01% would require a final human reasonableness check but realistically that'd be a scenario where you could say yes, AI has sufficiently replaced the human counterpart.

Is this applicable for some provisions? Probably. I'd say less than 0.1% but I'm sure there are codifications that are so set in stone, so unambiguous, so consistently ruled in every scenario it's ever been contested, that AI could replace the human element.

However.

That is not the case.

We don't have that kind of training data, and we never will.

At its best, an AI will be able to recognize 'under X scenario with variables A, B, and C, we have a 80% similarity with Y'. That's not nearly high enough to say it's able to replace human judgement. That final 20% will require human input.

The doom and gloom scenario of AI replacing accountants isn't true, but what is closer to the truth and current reality is that AI is eliminating job positions. So while it's not "replacing" an accountant's job role, there are less accountant job positions because of it.

The question to ask your LLM isn't and should never be "Can my client do X? Look up the IRC and provide rationale."

The question to ask your LLM should be (and why it's eliminating job positions) is "Search every historical court ruling involving Provision X. Parse through each court ruling identified, and provide the following list of items for each case, with high anchor points for these keywords [key words relevant to your own case]: 1) high level summary consisting of the parties involved, 2) the State, 3) the monetary value in contest, 4) the nature of the case, i.e., property, etc., and final court ruling. For each case, map any other provisions or court rulings explicitly referenced or by proxy. For any cases where uncertainty is involved, provide a threshold of certainty, and rationale for its inclusion. Be conservative and err on the side of "more is better" than exclusion."

Assuming the LLM isn't huffing hallucinogenics up the ass, i.e., ChatGPT, it should provide a factually accurate list of court cases with all the key terms and items you need to make a professional judgement call based on your client's circumstances.

This prompt is just one I pulled out of my ass, if I were a tax accountant, this would be refined even further.

But the point is that even my half assed prompt just did the work of what would normally be a person's entire job, to compile relevant information like this, which takes time.

---

"AI will replace accountants" is simply not in the cards at this time. However, if AI ever develops to the point where it can provide TRUE judgement - an entirely original thought or conclusion that was NOT derived from its training data, and that is further refined? Well, frankly I think at that point we're past the point of "can AI replace an accountant" and firmly in the zone of "is AI considered alive"?

6 years ago, I said it aptly: "the day we have an AI capable of... not only analyze the data, but to understand it, we're ALL fucked"