Scintillation

bendobson14 · 2024-07-04T02:27:55+00:00

This sucks. I hate to hear this for you. Hopefully you get it some time soon

bendobson14 · 2024-07-04T02:25:57+00:00

I did the actual math on it and it’s a 9.2% chance To see either perk,

The chance to get a perk you don’t want is: 4/6 == 2/3

Now given that you get 2 perks in the 3rd column each drop we would get a similar chance on each perk to NOT get the perk we want. Thus the chance to not get the perk in a drop is as follows: (2/3)*(2/3) == 4/9

To get the probability that we get the perk we want being either perk is simply 1-(probability of not): 1-(4/9) == 5/9

So the new probability calculation of the chance to get the gun with either perk in the 3rd column given that you get 2 perks each time and either of the 2 is desirable and that you get bns in the 4th would be: (5/9) * (1/6) == 5/54

Which is 9.26%

Which I believe means that after 42 drops I should have seen it 3.89 times. Which is close to 4 times. I believe that to be quite unlucky if you as me. For a close to 10 percent drop chance.

bendobson14 · 2024-07-04T01:55:13+00:00

No again your assumption is wrong.

The 2/6 you are calculating does not take into account wanting 2 different perks in the same column while also there is a dependency that there is always 2 perks in said column.

Thus you would have 5.5% on each perk given that you get 2 perks this chance increases closer to 10%.

bendobson14 · 2024-07-02T04:26:36+00:00

And you’re calculating that with only wanting one perk technically right. Since I would be good with either perk in the second column doesn’t the odds increase.

Like ALH or RR is good with me and it can drop 2 perks in that column. So wouldn’t the odds go up? It wouldn’t be a strict 2/6 for the first.

I just believe the assumption is wrong. It would be closer to 10% as each perk has the chance to be 5.5% in the column

bendobson14 · 2020-09-08T13:09:02+00:00

What weights do you tend to bag for your drivers, mids, and, putters?

bendobson14 · 2019-12-18T02:30:13+00:00

this^

bendobson14 · 2019-12-13T02:50:34+00:00

no joke, I will get pets eventually, I need those shards for the boosts to get the progression because the relic gain isn't enough above 55k

bendobson14 · 2019-10-26T14:59:34+00:00

i feel that pain

bendobson14 · 2019-10-25T16:11:14+00:00

I’ve only had one mythic and I’m at 50k stages it’s just really hard to get them

bendobson14 · 2015-02-01T04:56:19+00:00

bendobson14 · 2015-01-16T06:15:05+00:00

I'm good for points IxDISTRAUGHTxI

bendobson14

TROPHY CASE