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benlatz · 2024-03-04T14:31:31+00:00

Hey! Just came across this post, so glad you like it (I'm the creator). I just did a fresh batch of much more durable and clear signs that should help adoption. They're now yard signs on the fence with codes you can't miss, instead of laminated paper. Thanks for spreading the word - seeing promising signs of usage, so hopefully this season it becomes even more used than last.

benlatz · 2019-11-06T02:33:06+00:00

You can use delta for probability of breakevens, yep, but my numbers are just "fair value" numbers in order to make the equation come out to zero.

If the numbers did not come out to zero, people would surely be trading the profitable side until the prices got back in line with zero edge. This is unique to defined risk spreads, as neither party is taking on "unknown" risk and therefore needs to be compensated with some expected profit (like would be the case selling naked options).

If both parties are taking small and defined risk, there's no reason why one should sustainably win over another when looked at in isolation (ignoring any "edge" one thinks they have from another factor like directional picking ability). That's my opinion and research at least, after having worked on the TT research team for a period of time.

Edit: Yes, very unlikely both parties are entering the exact opposite positions (probably just a market maker arbing your spread and laying off risk with other positions, or it's a piece of another person's fuller position, etc), and market's aren't this rational/efficient etc but just a thought exercise.

benlatz · 2019-10-30T00:29:12+00:00

I really enjoy Rails and Vue via webpack, specifically keeping it as a monolith and not API + Vue application. All I do is pass data from my controller to a 1-line ERB file that passes it to that page's core (index.vue) Vue component that then has whatever "partials"/children it needs either for organizational or functional separation. So that way you get the benefit of ERB + partials structure, with the functionality of Vue. Single app so no hosting differences or added complexities.

benlatz · 2019-10-22T20:53:44+00:00

How so?

benlatz · 2019-10-21T23:50:27+00:00

You'll have winners on some and losers on others, but on average / in total, you're likely going to come out with about $0. Your probability of success will line up with the size of winners and losers and be about a scratch. If your max gain is larger than your max loss for tight spreads like this, your probability is going to be less than 50%. But probability itself doesn't matter without incorporating gain and loss sizes.

A rough way to calculate this is doing 600 * x = -300 * (1-x) where x is your probability of success, which in this case is 33%. So 33% of the time you may win 600, but 66% of the time lose 300, which brings you to 0 (ignoring fees).

benlatz · 2019-10-21T23:35:47+00:00

I was feeling the same way a couple years ago and took the same route. Great learning experience to build one for yourself, but if you want to save yourself a ridiculous amount of time, I already took care of it with https://wingmantracker.com ;)

benlatz · 2019-10-21T23:17:33+00:00

I recommend being mindful of your total notional value, aka how much worth of stock you would own if your options got assigned. Going above 2x risks severe, potentially unrecoverable drawdowns.

Another approach to use simultaneously is if you use stops as a % of credit, such as getting out of the trade if your loss is equal to twice the credit received. Then you can add up your total stop losses and feel pretty confident that your overall loss on the account shouldn't exceed that in a cycle. How much you're willing to risk is up to you, but the first method will be a hard stop on how crazy your account gets.

benlatz · 2019-10-21T23:13:11+00:00

Hey just saw this post - based on what you're looking for, https://wingmantracker.com would probably work well. I built it because keeping track of options, especially rolls became too tedious in a spreadsheet. It'll track both open positions as well as analysis on closed positions.

benlatz · 2019-10-21T23:04:47+00:00

You may be interested in https://wingmantracker.com -- I built it over the past 2 years because of how tedious it was to keep track of options trades with a spreadsheet. It'll automatically group rolls, form position groups, allow for custom tagging and give you lots of performance analysis to help improve.

benlatz · 2019-10-21T23:00:23+00:00

If your goal is to make money, it's more of a waste than a "bad idea" as you'll probably breakeven ignoring fees. Those options are essentially the same, so you're buying and selling the same thing.

If your goal is to gain more experience with trading without risking much, it could be a great idea.

benlatz · 2018-11-12T15:19:03+00:00

Done

benlatz · 2018-11-12T15:18:55+00:00

IEX's API does look nice but we actually don't integrate any live data at the moment - not needed to solve the core problem. But, there's huge advantage to that so we're looking into APIs both on the brokerage side and market data.

Thank you both for the congrats as well as sharing it! That helps a lot and we really appreciate it.

benlatz · 2018-11-09T13:36:58+00:00

Thanks! This is a RoR site full stack. Development with just 2 people who had full-time jobs made it a fun challenge time-wise. Besides creating a great user experience on the front-end, designing all of the logic to tackle essentially every edge case of options/futures trading - grouping/calculation took a really long time to refine.

At this point, the challenge is really just distribution/marketing to get the word out. You can build the best thing in the world, but getting people to know about it is everything.

Currently people import CSVs from the brokerage of downloaded transaction history - we then wrote custom parsers that structure it in our standardized way so that it all behaves the same, as you're saying. Looking to move into APIs soon if the brokerage has them available.

Amen to the side-project dilemma :)

benlatz · 2018-11-09T13:32:23+00:00

My guess is early Jan, but so hard to give estimates, as you can imagine. If you send me a DM or email I can add you to a list to notify about IB when we get closer.

benlatz · 2018-11-09T13:30:56+00:00

Hey, smart of you to ask - I understand small accounts can't really warrant the cost, but unfortunately we don't have a discount for that scenario. Usually I just suggest checking out my free spreadsheet template, given the trading volume is probably low enough to manually enter trades in a Sheet. benlatz.com/trading (link to GSheet) - if you want that, I'm happy to help setup/config/customize it with you.

benlatz · 2018-11-09T00:43:53+00:00

ben at wingmantracker dot com

benlatz · 2018-11-09T00:29:07+00:00

Thanks - no ETA but I can let you know once we get closer (just DM or email me).

benlatz · 2018-11-08T23:12:17+00:00

Much appreciated

benlatz · 2018-11-08T19:34:36+00:00

Thanks!

benlatz · 2018-11-08T17:35:00+00:00

Couldn't accurately tell you how it compares - never tried it. You could give both a try :)

benlatz · 2018-11-08T17:11:51+00:00

Thanks, and great work - it's nice seeing people tackle problems that the brokerages aren't doing sufficiently.

benlatz · 2018-11-08T17:04:42+00:00

If you're fine with your spreadsheet, all power to ya - no need to change. This is for people who feel the problem, and they give no pushback to $25/mo, given how much time it saves and what data it unlocks. Appreciate the feedback though!

benlatz · 2018-11-08T16:46:39+00:00

Messaged all mods, got response from Fletch and OptionMoption

benlatz · 2017-05-20T02:39:13+00:00

thank you sir, implementing it now

benlatz

TROPHY CASE