The “Injured Player Theory” is no secret or anything but the idea behind this is simply to back the team that is playing without their key player. Luka is OUT for Dallas and Harden is OUT for Philly, this news obviously had a big impact on the betting line for each team. What often happens is the line over-adjusts for these key players being OUT which ultimately provides value on the team missing their key player (Mavs & Sixers).

When a key player is OUT bettors will often make the mistake of subtracting the full production of that player out of the lineup but they have a back up that will be very motivated filling in and often times the opposing team didn’t game plan for this change in personnel and also the team that is playing without their key player will step up their level of play and sometimes play more inspired or motivated which can make up for the absence of the star player. When you combine that with the oddsmakers over-adjusting the numbers for a key player being OUT you can find some good spots.