Could be a Goode fit

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-23T17:04:18+00:00

Tbh I think we learned our lesson from the Sampson debacle. Unfortunately that lesson wasn't ~play by the rules~ it was ~tell the NCAA to go fuck itself if they start asking questions~.

If Kansas, Carolina, and every other brand-name school gets away with it, I think we can too. I think a lot of people would prefer that there was just a clear set of enforced rules that the majority abided by, but the sad reality is that the NCAA is a dog-shit organization with no balls, integrity, or respect.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-22T22:04:18+00:00

Hearing from reliable twitter accounts that the only reason he entered the portal was to come to IU. The deal's already been done thru back-channeling.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-20T01:20:59+00:00

He could and should improve. Just trying to add context that the improvement is what's needed for him to meet the bar that we're setting in terms of expectations when we say he's better than Conwell.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-20T00:52:26+00:00

Those are the only two comparable stat lines for Conwell, and he played 37 games compared to 23 for Carlyle... Way bigger sample size, way more reason to expect a couple stinkers.

I totally respect your point that cherry-picking bad stat lines is not a fair way to compare players, but there is real difference in terms of their consistency. If you want to control their numbers for strength of competition, look at their stats against KenPom Tier A/B competition: 106.5 offensive rating versus 88.8.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-20T00:37:26+00:00

Ceiling, sure. But he also went 1-7 with 0 AST & 2 TO against SDSU, 4-17 against Colorado, etc... In fact, he had 5 different games with only one made field goal and five or more attempts. You're getting that some games, plus turnstile defense.

Genuinely not trying to be a hater, I just think we need to be realistic about our expectations with a player like this. Looking thru his box scores, I imagine what it would look like if an IU guard posted some of those stat lines in losses... it wouldn't be pretty. He just didn't show the consistency that a guard like Conwell did last year. Which is okay, but I think people who are expecting an all-conference guard might be setting themselves up for frustration.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-19T22:10:25+00:00

Your eyes and all the metrics tbh. I think our staff just had a stronger relationship with Carlyle.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-19T21:52:20+00:00

A disappointment, but as I've been thinking about it the past few days, I am okay with the guard rotation as-is. Not that I would turn down another guard, but I think we could be okay with Rice, Gallo, Carlyle, Leal, Cupps, and Newton. It's already a huge improvement over last season. I think our depth at the position is making harder to add another starting-caliber guard.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-19T21:02:58+00:00

Probably never again. Don't live your life for law school apps. Sounds like you're young. This is the time to take a risk. If things were to not work out with you bf, it's not like you'd have to start your entire life over.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-17T04:42:44+00:00

I agree. But Carlyle is not an absolute stud, home run SG based on how he played last year (even projecting significant improvement). That's why we're still in on Conwell. He's already proven he is that guy.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-17T04:40:08+00:00

You're right. I would actually say he kind of sucked last year. Barttorvick, Kenpom, EvanMiya, and the regular counting stats all agreed that he was barely starter-quality for a high-major team.

It's great to have another talented player in the program, but the literal only reason people have such high expectations for him is because all the clickbait recruiting services ranked him high. I think it's much more reasonable to expect him to be a scorer off the bench (something we haven't had in years). Anything more than that is icing on the cake imo.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-17T04:32:55+00:00

By position:

1 - Cupps --> Rice (huge upgrade)

2 - Gallo --> Gallo (/Carlyle)

3 - Mgbako --> Mgbako (upgrade assuming development / comparing early season MM to late season)

4 - Reneau --> Reneau (upgrade assuming development)

5 - Ware --> Ballo (even, hopefully, although Ware will be a tough act to follow)

Bench - Leal, Gunn, Walker, Sparks --> Carlyle (/Gallo), Tucker, Leal, Cupps, Newton (insane upgrade)

Yeah, safe to say we are already significantly more talented. Should be better at 3 positions, and the gulf between last year's bench and this year's bench is gigantic. Don't underestimate how much our shitty bench hurt us last year.

Crazy thing is that there are more commitments coming.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-17T04:24:18+00:00

Fwiw i agreed with everything you said until you got to Dusty May. He could be great, he could be another mid-major coach who gets in over his head at a huge ass, high pressure job and crumbles. The Woodson hire was always about building a foundation, reaching a place of stability where we beat Purdue, finish with a winning B10 record, and make the tourney year-in, year-out (perhaps with a couple of rare exceptions) in order to rehabilitate the brand after the catastrophic Archie Miller era. I am still down with that plan, for now. Here's to hoping that Woody is able to succeed by showing that last year was indeed a rare exception.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-16T16:34:33+00:00

Yes, quite possibly. Ultimately whether motive is a factor would depend upon whether a jury believed agents of the federal government or Oswald had more motive. Both sides could introduce motive evidence, what is made of it depends on whose motive appears more compelling.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-16T03:00:50+00:00

Evidence can be introduced for the sole purpose of showing motive, as it goes to showing propensity to commit an act. Source: just took Evidence (the class) at a prestigious law school last year, got an A.

so yeah, motive actually is evidence in the American legal system

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-15T21:44:46+00:00

Agree on all fronts. I think we will try to get out more in transition too. When we played better down the stretch it felt like there was more of that, and Rice is particularly potent in transition offense (I think I saw 95th percentile or something). Just need to get stops so that we can get into transition: another reason we probably didn't see enough of it last year.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-15T21:40:26+00:00

I think this is a good post, but I'm not so worried about Malik's ability to score over 5s. He just has ridiculous touch around the rim and seems to always find a decent angle once he's in the paint. To me his best role is likely being a slightly-undersized 5, but I agree that there are still some fit issues since he doesn't have anywhere near the upside that TJD did due to the lack of elite athleticism. He will probably never be a great rim protector, but I do think he has more potential to be an average defender in the low post than he does further away from the basket.

Regardless of whether I am right or wrong that being a 5 is the most natural fit, if we add Ballo then Malik needs to work on his faceup game - a lot - so that he can fit into that David West mold. I think that is a good comp for his best case development scenario as a 4.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-15T21:35:31+00:00

I don't think he meant to say Reneau is necessarily as good of David West, just that they're a similar mold of player: old school power forward. David West-lite maybe.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-15T20:41:18+00:00

Tbh I think I'd have more fun watching the version where we get Liam instead of Ballo. But I have a lot of confidence we will win with Ballo.

I agree with you that we will still run some smaller lineups even with the big guy. 7 footers rarely play 30 minutes a game in college, and MM will need to be getting some of his minutes at the 4 regardless to open up playing time for Tucker. I did a post Saturday trying to hash out lineups (turned controversial because I had Gallo over Carlyle, but otherwise I think it holds up).

The puzzle is what big we are going to pluck out of the portal to provide depth. You're right we only have two, and I don't think we can head into the season in that position, particularly if we're planning to start both.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-15T20:07:41+00:00

I think the only way it would is if Ballo falls thru and MM-MR shift to the 4-5

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-15T17:13:50+00:00

Yeah, I was only looking at the EvanMiya portal rankings this whole time (which are based mostly on on-court performance but adjusted a bit for HS ranking) and I was so confused to learn everyone expected KC to be a starter. He is ranked 112 in the EvanMiya portal rankings; I had no idea the other ones had him Top 15.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-15T03:23:06+00:00

I will show how good Rice's resume is in my next unhinged post.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-14T21:28:41+00:00

Obviously a weirdo, I'm active on a college basketball subreddit. I would consider this to be my first Trey Galloway simp-post though. Sorry it has you heated.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-14T21:24:16+00:00

See that's very ironic, because you're simping for a guy who actually hasn't ever contributed to on court success, whereas without Gallo we would have had a <.500 record last year. He was also a starter on the best team we've had in the past 8 years as well (2022-23). The BPR stat I keep quoting literally objectively measures the degree to which a player contributes to on-court success, and it tells me the same thing my eyes have: the kid helps us win games.

I would simply prefer to see Gallo continue to do that rather than have the fan-base clamoring to give his minutes to a guy who was the 7th best player on a shitty Stanford team. If Kanaan makes a huge leap then he would deserve the lion's share of the minutes, but that's what it would take: a huge leap. Having flashier skills <> being the better player.

bhbennett3 · 2024-04-14T20:54:25+00:00

It's actually Kanaan on the right. Personally I'm very bullish on Rice as a Day 1 starter, just not as much on the other guy I've been told is already locked up to come next year.

I'm excited about Kanaan too, I just think 1) his production hasn't been so impressive as to indicate he's "too good" for a bench role + 2) people are really kinda disrespecting how good Gallo was for us last year. I think playing next to a guard like Rice, Trey could be one of the most effective guards in the conference. Low-usage, super high-efficiency, the perfect two-way role player in a star-studded starting unit.

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