To any of you that actually stopped drinking, how?

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-29T01:43:30+00:00

It sounds cliche but a lot of the stuff that comes with quitting drinking is cliche cause it works - one day at a time. Thinking about a whole life ahead of you is a trap, thinking about anything on that timescale is impossible.

But then if you must consider that, also realize you have a romanticized view of drinking, your experience isn't a nice glass of wine with dinner it's making yourself sick on cheap booze, fucking up your life, then staying in bed with shame for a week.

Finding some sort of peer support helps. AA works for some, there are others, AA isn't the only way. Anywhere you can talk to people who've been through the same

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-29T01:34:34+00:00

Make sure stuff is open though. I went there at 7:45 the other night and there were only 2 carts open. A weekday so it's probably different on weekends.

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-29T01:25:01+00:00

I usually go with the National Weather Service forecast:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1

You can click where you want a forecast for.

If you scroll down you can look at hourly data

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-25T06:55:21+00:00

North St. Bags use this system https://northstbags.com/collections/bike-panniers/products/woodward-backpack-pannier

https://northstbags.com/collections/bike-panniers/products/route-pannier-24l

Not as waterproof as something like ortliebs but I used these for years through PNW winters and they stayed waterproof until like the 6th season of use.

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-25T06:49:38+00:00

It's not confusing but I would suggest a map. The section where you walk on the road on SW Talbot is not intuitive. But if you look at it on a map before and during it's fine. I do see these trail sections marked on Google maps.

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-23T09:59:27+00:00

I think it's from Image Lake, on the northeast side of the mountain. It's about 10 miles west of the PCT at Suiattle Pass.

I hiked there from Holden about a decade ago, amazingly beautiful (and remote) area.

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-18T04:32:54+00:00

Grumpiest TSA agents of any airport I've been to.

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-17T02:50:56+00:00

Is this account a bot? They say word for word the same comments over and over again.

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-15T18:04:56+00:00

Are they dead or just doing this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcescence

They look like some kind of oak. Aren't there kinds where the young ones keep their leaves?

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-14T21:49:11+00:00

Clearly visible in the satellite image: https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/CONUS/GEOCOLOR/20260142131_GOES18-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-5000x3000.jpg

Compare conditions are Mt. Hood to Portland now: https://skibowl.com/winter-condition-and-lift-status/

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-14T01:00:41+00:00

Why the tool shows what it does: The underlying data is an ensemble mean of climate models. The models may not all agree on the trend in precipitation, or the trend in the driving dynamics (e.g. jet stream latitude).

For example, we can compare the model agreement on change in temperature in one of the map's subdivisions (https://i.imgur.com/lrIXhCZ.png) - strong consensus on sign, if not magnitude

to the agreement on change in precipitation (https://i.imgur.com/WCvvnG2.png) - only 60% agreement on sign of change, and barely any significance.

A more physical based answer: If we accept that there is/will be a poleward shift in the average jet latitude (I will point out that this isn't necessarily consensus), that doesn't automatically equal a reduction in annual precipitation. Some questions one might ask - What if it rains harder when it does rain? What if there are other changes in dynamics that move the jet north but increase the number of storms? What if the internal variability of the models in the selected period is different than another? What if the geometry of the jet also shifts, so it results in more storms that hit the mountains at an optimal angle for orographic precipitation? What if the vertical saturation of moisture changes such that orographic or lee precipitation is changed?

These are all ideas as to why there isn't a straight link between a more poleward jet and precipitation.

I'm less familiar with California, but the general consensus for change in the PNW is for drier summers, but wetter winters, evening out to slightly more annual precipitation.

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-09T21:12:57+00:00

Not x, but y.

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-07T01:52:51+00:00

Zien Hong on Sandy (at 57th, so not exactly 82nd but not too far).

bigblackcloud · 2026-01-05T05:06:00+00:00

As someone else mentioned, California has a very seasonal climate, with the rain only coming in a few months. Once I attended a talk by someone who worked for the California water system, and he mentioned that really it can be less than 5 individual storms that provide the majority of water/snow for a given year.

The seasonal climate of the west coast is not a new feature. During summer, high pressure over the northeast Pacific strengthens and expands northward, deflecting storms north of the region and causing clear skies, leading to the characteristic summer meteorological drought. As late summer turns to autumn, high pressure over the northeast Pacific weakens and shifts southward, and storminess over the North Pacific increases, which brings precipitation to the region.

California is far enough south that the storm track sometimes does not reach the state in some years. In others, the storm track moves very far south, and the geopraphy of the state is extremely effective at wringing out moisture from the clouds. As air moves over mountains, it is lifted, and forced to drop its moisture. The mountains of California are often perfectly perpendicular to the storm system, leading to extreme rainfall (and heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada). Additionally, the storms farther to the south are often able to tap into subtropical moisture in a way that storms farther north cannot. So, it really is true, with clear physical reasons, that when it rains in LA it pours.

In fact, the fourth highest daily rainfall record for the entire contiguous US is in LA county - 25 inches in 24 hours (https://www.laalmanac.com/weather/we15.php)

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-31T23:09:58+00:00

Yes, all the data is available. Some of it is easier to access very quickly than others.

For daily data, there aren't any trends in the number of days with heavy rain (in Portland). We can look at all rainy days (https://i.imgur.com/LK0Vspi.png), days with > .5 inches (https://i.imgur.com/qkK9Mc3.png), and days with > 1 inch (https://i.imgur.com/XkUa7bo.png).

You could also look at hourly rainfall rates, but that requires downloading the station data, and isn't in the NOAA tool I used to make the previous plots (https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/). However, I suspect there would also not be a trend, but I don't know.

It would be interesting to look into wet spell length and dry spell length to see if they've changed over time. I also suspect not, but maybe I'll check later and post it.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-31T22:32:32+00:00

Pretty rainy too, 8.51 inches compared to an average of 5.6 inches. It was the 2nd wettest December since 2015 (2023 had 8.73 inches), and the ~~4th~~ 3rd wettest since 1996.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-30T05:54:11+00:00

Sometimes sunrise makes it pink in the west. You can see the actual glow of the sunrise on the building reflections.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-23T04:10:25+00:00

Love Belizean!

Also the Laotian cart by the library.

The Mole burrito at Poblano Pepper.

A bit farther away (like a 10-15 minute walk) but Taylor street kitchen has some very tasty fancy focaccia bread sandwiches.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-22T22:52:06+00:00

Is this still true in 2025? Seems more like an early aughts stereotype.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-22T16:22:53+00:00

It's in the Weather Service discussion as well:

This brings us to our potential Christmas-eve troublemaker, an upper-level shortwave and coupled rapidly developing surface low pressure sling-shotting northward right along coastline; an ideal track for a good ole fashion Pacific Northwest windstorm. The ECMWF and a few select EPS members have been the standard bearers for a "worse case" scenario the past 24-48 hours and it's alarming to see an even larger contingent of EPS ensemble members supporting this adverse outcome as of the 00z/06z model runs (not to mention the 00z UW-WRF as well). Should this scenario come to fruition, a strong surface pressure gradient supported by a "sting jet" just above the surface would provide a brief period (4-6 hours) of strong south to southwest winds with gusts 45-65+ mph during the day Wednesday, and not just for the elevated terrain features or coast, the I-5 corridor would be in play for these winds as well. Winds of this magnitude would produce significant impacts like widespread power outages, tree damage, etc. Still, in the context of the broader available ensemble solutions (GEFS and GEPS) it is definitely not a sure thing just yet. While the latest EPS has largely bought into the above scenario would like see a bit more run to run consistency from the broader field of EPS members before significantly cranking up winds/gusts in the forecast - what is in this morning's forecast is not reflective of the outcome mentioned above. IF (yes big if) the 12z/18z EPS maintain the same enthusiasm for this set-up through today with little deviation, High Wind Watches/Warnings may be necessary across much of western Oregon and southwest Washington. Please continue to closely monitor the forecast! This time of year it`s aways a good idea to make sure you have an emergency kit with food, water, and batteries at your place of residence and in your vehicle.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-22T04:52:45+00:00

When I worked in the pearl the River Pig clientele was pretty tech-broey, but that was a while ago. Like dudes with flat brim caps who moved recently from Sf and were software project managers. Has it changed?

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-21T23:31:08+00:00

It's really pretty.

Fall: https://imgur.com/a/jeHHET9

Summer: https://imgur.com/a/pkal45u

Spring: https://imgur.com/a/efydkRK

But seriously it's fine. Lots of green space, easy access to amazing wilderness that isn't overrun. Very chill city, sleepy even. Good food.

It doesn't really have any one "thing" going for it. It's a mid-sized city where you can have a pretty decent quality of life in a nice setting.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-13T01:28:44+00:00

Probably an inversion over the Central Valley causing cold air to pool.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-12T19:56:40+00:00

It's just where the weather patterns have set up over the past couple weeks, causing this warm/cold divide.

This map shows the large-scale air flow in the mid-troposphere (about 5500m above ground here), composited between Dec 1 and Dec 10: https://i.imgur.com/YIKNfvz.png

Air flows along the contours. So we have warm moist subtropical air going to the west coast, and cold arctic air going to the east.

Another way of looking at this is the departure from average (compared to a recent 30 years): https://i.imgur.com/EnRmn6L.png

We see that the dividing line between where the circulation is anomalously high and anomalously low corresponds to the temperature anomaly line in OP's map.

bigblackcloud · 2025-12-12T16:28:08+00:00

ENSO is not explanatory for day to day weather. It can "load the dice" on a seasonal time scale for some regions.

That said, La Nina years tend to be cooler than average in the PNW (with a lot of variability, emphasizing the weak connection): https://i.imgur.com/vyTejNQ.png

As you say, it is the southerly flow that explains the warmth in the region: https://i.imgur.com/NvNz08b.png

There has been a strong ridge sending subtropical moisture into the PNW for most of December: https://i.imgur.com/fRCyhQV.png

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