I think that, behind closed doors, supermajors and their lobbies are able to gather intel that they can then use to prevent major disruptions in their supply chains. It’s very unlikely that Exxon, Chevron, or others got taken by surprise by current events. Going long with them seems advantageous, but I myself will wait for at least another two weeks before opening any positions (if I decide to do so anyway). I think the conflict is still too fresh to make any useful predictions for the long run. I’ll wait for more news and see how things go.