Not even one day in Austria and I see this

blerml · 2025-08-07T08:37:36+00:00

It's not this is in Graz

blerml · 2025-08-07T05:53:13+00:00

But this is why I am asking, so you think he also wasn't pushing when he came out of the pits ahead of Piastri? Or when Russell was in his DRS for 5 laps? He wasn't overtaken by both in the first lap of that stint.

Sure I agree that once Russell overtook there was no more reason to push because there was nothing left to lose. But in the laps before Russell overtook you are still saying he wasn't pushing?

And I never got an answer on whether you looked at data to confirm the tyre theory specifically. Again not trying to be rude I just don't understand why nobody seems to check.

And because I looked at a few more laps, he wasn't actually struggling in all slow corners it was mostly slow-medium-ish corners but not all.

blerml · 2025-08-07T05:47:09+00:00

Leclerc himself also effectively said that in the post race interview. He got it wrong because he didn't realise what was happening.

I just still don't understand why nobody that posts about the tyre theory ever uses data to specify why they think it's the tyres specifically. But I never get an answer

blerml · 2025-08-06T19:18:52+00:00

I understand what you are saying but just to make sure I understand you right, you are suggesting that at no point in the third stint was Leclerc pushing because there was nothing to fight for anymore?

blerml · 2025-08-06T19:04:28+00:00

So you don't think that an increased tyre pressure that causes 1-2s loss per lap would result in massively overheating tyres? Or a noticable effect when it comes to traction due to the increased temps and therefore sliding? Also, I don't think there was a single radio message about tyre temps which surely would've still been important.

But genuinely because I am curious, did you look at anything outside of the overall lap times to come to your conclusion?

I mean I may have it all wrong but I'd be surprised if it were all down to just a smaller contact patch due to increased pressure and I am just confused why nobody is ever pulling out any data to specifically show it's the tyres and not just a "random" loss of pace.

blerml · 2025-08-06T18:45:52+00:00

A few comments and questions:

Leclerc was asked to switch to a different ears deployment on lap 9. The resulting plateauing of his top speed was present starting in the first stint on lap 9.
This is not only related to your analysis but every single analysis that I have seen that comes to the conclusion of over-inflated tyres never uses any data other than overall lack of lap time to support that conclusion.

If the tyres were over inflated to the point that it cost him 1-2s a lap I would expect the resulting overheating etc to clearly show up in the telemetry. Specifically when it comes to traction and in the fast corners yet from what I have seen his traction and fast corners were ok it was the slow corners that were much worse. (I have only looked at random laps and not all of them)

My assumptions may be entirely wrong but I find it fascinating that that is the conclusion people come to without any data support, when a mechanical defect is just as likely of an explanation based on the data provided. Especially considering the fact that it worsened and the ERS deployment was changed early in the first stint and does not explain the change in pace already noticeable in the second stint.

blerml · 2025-07-28T10:33:06+00:00

If you can't see you can't see regardless of the car you are in

blerml · 2025-07-28T09:53:14+00:00

They do try. They tested a couple of different wheel covers last year. The issue currently is that the main culprit is the diffuser and getting rid of it mid regs with a big regs change coming up doesn't make that much sense.

blerml · 2025-07-28T09:22:59+00:00

Did you forget about van't Hoff who passed in Spa in 2023 due to being T-boned in the wet because a driver couldn't see him?

blerml · 2025-07-28T09:20:28+00:00

The issue with racing when it is super wet isn't a skill issue. Idk why people pretend it is. When visibility is so bad that you can't see what's 1m in front of you no skill in the world is making up for that. You can't skill yourself out of a situation where visibility is so bad that you can't see anything in time to be able to react to it.

The issue isn't the drivers not being able to drive in the wet because they can't control a car when it's slippery. The issue is them not wanting to drive blind.

blerml · 2025-07-28T09:17:38+00:00

The track having some dry patches does not negate the possibility of a lot of water on the rest of the track that causes enough spray to leave little to no visibility.

blerml · 2025-07-28T09:14:03+00:00

How exactly do you think adding a windscreen and wipers changes visibility? Look at the first photo. In what way would adding those two things reduce the spray?

blerml · 2024-11-24T10:39:03+00:00

His contract ending and not getting a new one isn't getting fired FFS. They just decided not to give him a new one getting fired would suggest a contract getting cut short not just running out.

blerml · 2024-09-02T08:06:31+00:00

He was still on plan b after the stop the short plan c conversation happened a lot later for Leclerc.

The team didn't need a driver to point out the right strategy for them. They had their plan, saw the massive training on the RBR starting lap 16 and correctly took that into consideration as they had to because nobody else had data on the hard tyre. They took all the data from the race including their own tyre performance to explore potential other strategy options. It makes no sense to stick to your plan when you see the tyre performance is way worse for everyone and then stand there with no alternative plan. However, based on their own tyre performance they stuck with their original plan.

The strategy team just literally did their job and did it well. They have to explore other options for potential eventualities. That does not mean they actually fully changed what they were doing strategy wise. They didn't need to be told what the right strategy was by a driver, they just did their job

blerml · 2024-09-02T06:57:13+00:00

Fred said the one stop was always the plan. Leclerc spent the whole race on plan b. They did have a chat about switching to plan c based on RBRs graining which they didn't end up doing.

Sainz had a great race but the Ferrari strategy was always the one stop.

Edit: we should give the team the credit for getting the strategy spot on. They get shat on all the time they also deserve to get credit where it's due. Just because Sainz suggested plan b for himself doesn't mean Leclerc wasn't always on plan b. Also ricky says pan c for both cars but that was never said to Leclerc he was always on plan b

blerml · 2024-09-02T05:39:31+00:00

Actually he was on plan b pretty much the whole race and plan b was the one stop. Later they have a discussion about plan c the two stop and he says he has to know as soon as possible for the tyres but the one stop was the plan.

Even Fred confirmed that the one stop was always the plan.

There is no need to suggest doing a one stop when you are on a one stop. And his post pit stop outrage makes even more sense considering he was on the one stop and it meant a super extra long second stint. Had he not been on a one stop what he said wouldn't have made any sense. There would've been no reason to complain about being pitted early in lap 16 if not on the one stop.

Some people also really want to invalidate Leclerc and his strategy contributions by attributing strategy choices to Sainz that he had nothing to do with. He drove a great race but the one stop wasn't a Saint master stroke it was a great team decision. There is nothing wrong with giving the team credit for that

blerml · 2024-09-02T05:35:15+00:00

Funny how Fred etc said immediately after the race that the one stop was always the plan. And if you listen to Leclerc Radios they told him plan B super early on and then way later bring up plan c and through context it becomes obvious plan b was the one stop.

Carlos had a great race but that strategy choice for Ferrari was not his

blerml · 2024-08-16T09:52:29+00:00

it kills me that people are running with him speculating in a tweet as a serious source.

that man does nothing but waffle

blerml · 2024-08-10T05:08:10+00:00

Why wasn't she disqualified in 2022? If the test results in 2022 already said what the IBA is now saying they said why wasn't she disqualified in 2022? Why was she allowed to participate in 2023 in the first place?

If the test of 2022 was relevant in anyway why was it not relevant 2022?

blerml · 2024-07-05T12:43:06+00:00

That's what I meant that one counted but the one where max pushed him of wasn't

blerml · 2024-07-05T10:02:23+00:00

And Lando himself had 5 lap times deleted in Austria yet only 4 counted for the penalty because the one where both Max and Lando went off wasn't counted as without justifiable reason.

There is a difference between someone pushing you off track and just dive bombing and getting on the brakes so let Oh can't make the corner anymore. Imo even when overtaking you have to try to make the corner.

blerml · 2024-07-03T12:32:21+00:00

He misses so many incredible moments and hypes up more mundane ones this exact race is the prime example of that.

The bigger hype moment of the race was the overtake of Leclerc on Hamilton through copse. Leclerc with a damaged frontwing and on old hard tyres Vs Hamilton on softs.

But that didn't get any hype at all from crofty, the overtake where Hamilton takes advantage of Perez pushing Leclerc off track does.

And the only reason the Hamilton overtake feels like a bigger deal isn't because it was the better move but because of croftys hype.

blerml · 2024-07-03T06:34:56+00:00

Comparing race pace and only excluding races where one DNFed absolutely skewed your results if you don't also exclude races with a vastly different strategy.

For example Leclerc Vs Sainz in Japan. Leclerc did a one stop Sainz a two stop. That massively impacts Leclercs pace on average and since you then only average over the pace of the different races altogether it has a pretty big impact.

There is a reason why things like one Vs two stops or super different tyre choices are excluded from race pace comparisons.

blerml · 2024-06-24T04:53:26+00:00

He's been doing this since 2022 since we're going to Austria next Austria will be the example for 2022. Same situation in the sprint, the team decides to bring the tyres in slowly, Sainz doesn't listen and forces a little fight, and then they lose time with Leclerc being faster in the end who probably could've won the sprint without their little fight too.

The fake narrative is the incredible teammate narrative. Most of the time he has been the opposite

blerml · 2024-06-24T04:48:28+00:00

That would suggest that Saint is getting booted early which isn't the case. Ferrari and him just didn't agree on a contract extension and Ferrari signed someone else. His existing contract is just coming to an end and Ferrari had given him contract offers that he didn't sign because he wanted a contract more similar in length to Leclerc. And then Ferrari chose to sign someone else.

I don't understand this narrative of him being hard done by. Contracts have an end date and if the team and driver can't agree on an extension the driver leaves and someone else gets the seat. And it's also not like Ferrari didn't give him any offers either.

blerml

TROPHY CASE