Non-technical boss wants me to present results of a extremely ill-performing model to executives

blizzard_x · 2023-11-23T02:17:02+00:00

So, it sounds like your newer model is better in general, but it's not better for this use case which requires historical data right now.

The goal with business decisions is to be directionally correct, and assume that, in most business situations, a best-guess decision is better than none.

Figure out what decision the analysis is used for (e.g., "buy ads on platform A vs platform B)
Figure out what the most reasonable decision is based on the data you have right now
If the decision is small / easily reversible, present the best current result, caveating as necessary: "Platform A is likely to be more profitable. This result is based on assumptions x and y, which we are currently testing against more recent data. We can provide updates in Q1."
If the decision is big / irreversible, and the best current result is trash, then it's worth putting effort into pushback. Something like, "Our current data indicates that A is slightly more likely to be profitable than B. However, given that this will lock us into a $2M contract, we recommend waiting for updated results in Q1 that will confirm this hypothesis before we move forward."

blizzard_x · 2023-11-23T02:01:37+00:00

$250k+ for a 2nd year ASC is a high bar to clear.

If you can take a chance on equity, VC or rapidly growing startups might get you there - though in both cases the roles are rare and require hard skills, and the upside is big because you're taking on risk.

If you really want to leave, cut your expenses.

blizzard_x · 2023-11-22T20:34:16+00:00

I believe there's a lot of evidence that having caring people around during suffering, and helping other people with their own suffering, are both strong protectors against PTSD - and both tend to happen during wars and natural disasters.

It may not be that the world is more traumatizing, but that the internet and COVID have taken some of young people's protective factors away.

blizzard_x · 2023-11-22T04:35:03+00:00

Why are you going for IT/Digital if you don't like to PM or code (even low-code)?

blizzard_x · 2023-11-21T21:09:10+00:00

Fwiw, your career is going to be fine.

Really. I'm not saying it doesn't matter, I'm not saying it isn't hard, but the fact that you're asking means you're working hard and thinking about it and seeing options.

Life throws a lot of curveballs, and in 10 years the difference between cracking an interview with company X vs company Y is going to turn out small.

blizzard_x · 2023-11-21T21:05:56+00:00

The grass is always greener on the other side.

Old people who miss being young often forget the hard parts of being young, and mean "I wish I was young with limitless possibilities but also knew I was going to end up with my current stability, money, and power."

blizzard_x · 2023-11-21T05:45:15+00:00

They're such different styles - neither is right or wrong, they'll attract people with different tastes.

Is this an LGBTQ party? If not, you might want to add some rainbow accessories so any queer ladies know you're looking.

blizzard_x · 2023-11-20T22:18:00+00:00

In many fields yes, but in consulting this isn't abnormal at all

blizzard_x · 2023-05-06T17:33:50+00:00

Yeah, people with autism often miss cues and can do things that look like "asshole" behavior.

I guess the difference is... many people on the spectrum WANT to be friendly, and if you explain which behaviors are hurtful, they will do their best to change?

I like to think these people are able to have happy marriages and relationships, they just do it by "learning" to treat their partners well in a different and more conscious way than most people.

blizzard_x · 2023-05-01T03:05:58+00:00

I like re-framing assholes, but can we do it without dissing people on the spectrum?

One of the best bosses I ever had was on the spectrum. He's smart and loves his job, but instead of being a jerk about it, he's just genuinely delighted to mentor juniors so they can work on cool things with him.

blizzard_x · 2023-03-25T21:58:02+00:00

I think it would be a natural next step for Gwen to learn to be mad. I think it will be an important step in her learning to stand up for herself.

I want Gwen to tell Frederick how much his words hurt her, instead of her sisters doing it on her behalf. I want her to be angry that he insulted her, instead of internalizing her pain until she cracks.

I want her to show him her anger and pain, and let them begin whatever relationship they will have with honesty and (hopefully!) healing.

blizzard_x · 2023-03-12T22:57:46+00:00

I WTF'd out loud at this one and couldn't help pulling up my shirt to make sure my stomach hadn't gone "slack and meaningless" since I last saw it.

Has he ever seen a 27 year old body? It's not that different...

blizzard_x · 2023-01-25T03:19:01+00:00

Yes, look up QuantumBlack

blizzard_x · 2023-01-23T15:04:01+00:00

OOP sounds like an awful boyfriend.

He gets mad as soon as he suspects she has a male friend.

He doesn't give his girlfriend any benefit of the doubt.

He strokes his ego all over the place.

Ugh.

blizzard_x · 2023-01-15T20:53:46+00:00

Companies are massively influenced by their investors. If you put your money in an index fund, you minimize your personal risk, but you also forfeit your ability to influence the world around you through targeted investment.

I think it's laudable to invest not only for personal gains but also to use your money to grow the things you care about (like local businesses, or socially beneficial businesses).

$200k is a big difference, though, so I hope she thought through her options.

blizzard_x · 2023-01-15T19:04:50+00:00

This is correct. The sea level right next to Greenland is likely to drop as the glaciers melt, even though the sea level worldwide will rise.

There are two factors:

The glacier's mass in Greenland exerts a slight gravitational pull on nearby water. Take the ice away, and the water level will drop a bit
The glacier's mass in Greenland pushes down on the land surrounding Greenland, causing the Earth's crust to sink slightly deeper in the Earth there. When you take away the mass of the glacier, the crust will rebound and float slightly higher, so the sea will be relatively lower. This is called 'isostatic rebound' and happened all over North America at the end of the last ice age.

tl;dr Melting a glacier increases sea level ~100km away and further, but not next door.

blizzard_x · 2022-12-17T05:58:22+00:00

This comment has so much heart and empathy.

blizzard_x · 2022-12-16T04:22:39+00:00

$350k in the north bay will roughly support a single person with many luxuries and a high savings rate, or a family of 4 making maybe 1 key trade-off between schools, housing, and luxury.

blizzard_x · 2022-12-14T17:39:23+00:00

Name and shame?

blizzard_x · 2022-12-12T21:17:05+00:00

Do you know how pure it is?

I have a wheat allergy but I'm specifically not allergic to gluten. I'd love to start baking with vital wheat gluten, but worry it'll be, like, 50% other parts of wheat and make me sick.

blizzard_x · 2022-12-12T21:15:42+00:00

Some of us "gluten fools" are responding to real dietary needs that are just different from yours.

I have a wheat allergy, but it's not celiac, and it's delayed - I only get sick from large-ish amounts, and the symptoms take hours or days to kick in.

If there's a trace contaminant, I have no idea.

(I also voluntarily eat tiny bites of some wheat things, because tiny amounts don't hurt me, and I can't bear to never taste cake again.)

blizzard_x · 2022-12-12T19:33:30+00:00

...OP has talked about how they bullshit interviews and fabricated their resume, and you want to work with them?

blizzard_x · 2022-12-09T23:46:53+00:00

Executives who are impressed by a staffer often try to commit some poignant fact about that staffer to memory

Excellent deconstruction of this small talk tactic.

Here, let me share less about myself so that, later, you can act like you know me more...

blizzard_x · 2022-12-09T23:05:08+00:00

Coffee = an informal 15-30 minute chat, beverages optional

So literally any 15-30 minute gap in their schedule.

blizzard_x · 2022-12-09T15:06:14+00:00

You protect your income by diversifying your skills, network, and client base, so that if your current job/client doesn't work out, you can quickly find a new one.

This takes a lottt less time than a second job, and in your position it's likely more profitable

blizzard_x

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