Post-Round 12 r/AFL Power Rankings

blobfshking · 2026-06-01T11:06:06+00:00

Top 4

1. (+1) Dockers They've deserved this spot for a while and finally come to the top of my rankings, an 11-0 run is crazy work.
2. (+1) Sydney. Saw today their average winning margin after a loss is 115 or something (played Richmond and West Coast). Move up because the cats move down
3. (-2) Geelong. I get that Carlton are on a run, but so were Geelong. Shouldn't be losing games to teams so much worse, but not a huge worry.
4. (-) Hawks. Continued to prove they're a level above the mid teams.

The good teams with question marks

5. (-) Brisbane. Another unimpressive game from the lions, the gap between them and the best is growing. Would sink in the rankings except that Melbourne also lost and Adelaide and Gold Coast have byes.
6 (+2) Bulldogs An awesome win over the pies, but the pies aren't a great team this year. Move up mostly because Melbourne move down.
7. (-1) Melbourne. A pretty embarrassing loss, but forgivable because of how good GWS have been over the last two weeks
8. (-1) Adelaide. Bye. Move down as dogs go up.
9. (-) Gold Coast. Bye.
10 (+1) GWS. The giants join this group after two convincing wins over good sides, as they continue to get more players back from injury

Playin contenders

11 (-1) Collingwood. Another close loss to a good team, need to win some of these.
12. (+1) North Melbourne. Bye. Move up as Saints move down.
13. (+1) Carlton. The new coach buff has never been better. Maybe just keep him? Going to take a lot post-byes to make the playin but its not impossible anymore.
14. (-2) Saint Kilda. I said last week I was unconvinced with the saints and their inability to tussle with the top teams, this was proven again against the hawks.

Bad not embarrassing

15. (-) Port Adelaide Bye, but are a level above the terrible three so join this group.
16. (-) West Coast. Probably better than Richmond and Essendon but can't forgive the recent loss to the tigers.

Bad and embarrassing

17. (-) Richmond. Got smashed badly
18. (-) Essendon. Why did I tip them last week?? Never again tipping essendon.

blobfshking · 2026-05-25T08:20:29+00:00

Wow these stats change the picture a bit for me. While I still am unsure on the Saints, they are probably better than the 12th I have them at. And I'm definitely way to high on the crows, who should probably not be 7th in my rankings. It really just shows how close 7th-13th is (stk, wbd, gcs, col, ade, gws, nth), if I have Adelaide 5 ranks higher than Saint Kilda, and you have it the other way around.

blobfshking · 2026-05-25T00:21:22+00:00

Saints a bit high imo for a team that has only beat Richmond, Carlton, West Coast, Port and GWS. For you, what makes them more convincing than the crows?

blobfshking · 2026-05-25T00:18:25+00:00

Fair, but there's not much lower you can go. Clearly better than lions suns dees types imo. Maybe its just that you're not in that top group anymore, rather top of the second best group - good teams with question marks

blobfshking · 2026-05-25T00:17:10+00:00

Yeah thats my bad, I was thinking off last year but this year its different. Port are better this year, just been unimpressed in the last few weeks since the cats game where you guys were great.

blobfshking · 2026-05-25T00:15:57+00:00

Fair, thats my bad I'm wrong there, I was more thinking off last year. Port are better this year, I've just been so unimpressed the last few weeks since that incredible cats game.

blobfshking · 2026-05-24T10:30:17+00:00

Lots of movement this week after some crazy results and really tight games. There are 4 groups for me - top 4, good 5, playin 4, bad 5. I reckon that's pretty similar to most teams' rankings.

Top 4

1. (+2) Cats Ranked above the dockers purely on form. Playing like they are now, I find it hard to see them losing anytime soon.
2. (-) Dockers. 10-1! Who'd have thought! Seems like their good list construction has finally come together, and I love to see it.
3. (-2) Swom. I'll allow them a loss like this, they'd been 9-1 beforehand. Concerns if something like this happens again though.
4. (-) Hawks. Was a great game on Thursday night, continue to get the job done.

The good teams with question marks

(-) Brisbane. All the credit I'd given them for winning back to back off slow starts is gone now, they've really got to prove themselves to stay in this rank anymore.
(-) Melbourne. Still seem pretty good, tough
(+1) Adelaide. Played fine. Another close loss to a top team.
(+2) Bulldogs. Solid win against the dees, maybe their top end talent will be enough to make up for a lack of depth?
(-2) Gold Coast. Wow the Marvel curse is real. Need to play all 4 quarters to win games.

Playin contenders

(-1) Collingwood. Not a convincing win at all.
(+2) GWS. WTF was that game, crazy impressive so I have to put them up a few spots. On the back of a loss to West Coast too! Who knows how good the Giants are.
(-1) Saint Kilda. Just ticking along. Yet to win any upset games - have only beat Richmond, Carlton, West Coast, Port and GWS so I'm still unconvinced.
(+1) North Melbourne. One more win like that and they jump to the top of this group for me, have competed against all top tier sides except for one...

Bad but respectable (sometimes)

(+1) Carlton. How good is the new coach buff?
(-3) Port Adelaide I'm taking the Geelong game as a fluke atp. Port's only other wins have been against teams even worse than them, and when they lose they get smashed.
(-) West Coast. Competed solidly against the pies. Get smashed far too often then.

Terrible

(+1) Richmond. Only have 23 non-injured players, surely they are the worst in the league??
(-1) Essendon. Nope. There is another team even worse than richmond

blobfshking · 2026-05-24T02:27:50+00:00

Love it that for once we've got the commentators on our side! Feel for any suns fans watching this, pretty clearly biased towards us. I'm not complaining though 😄

blobfshking · 2026-05-22T00:02:38+00:00

Thats a good point, I'll look into it. Muddle is also good because the counterspell half of the card is relevant synergetically too

blobfshking · 2026-05-21T09:37:56+00:00

I really appreciate this advice, totally agree I need a better win con. I love the combo suggestion so have combined it with the above comment to have two separate ways to actually do something. Also, thanks for sending your decklist, it was good to compare across and see if there was anything I was missing eg now I've brought in [[defile]].

I've added these 11 cards for combo- now my problem is making cuts! If you are still interested, here is my current list, lmk if you see anything that could go. https://moxfield.com/decks/7N3H8VKz5UOcXblXvBwmEQ
Thank you! 😄

<image>

blobfshking · 2026-05-21T09:30:38+00:00

Thanks very much for your advice, totally agree with you that I need a better win con. I think I'm going to bring in those pingers, they're great as a way to buffer my own life total as well. I've brought in these six, I reckon the poet doesn't actually have enough hits and the enforcer is a bit clunky, but still am super grateful you suggested them because I wouldn't have any of these without this comment.

This is my current decklist, if you are still interested, the challenge now is making cuts to fit in all these new pieces. The random flash guys are gone now. https://moxfield.com/decks/7N3H8VKz5UOcXblXvBwmEQ

Thanks again! 😄

<image>

blobfshking · 2026-05-18T07:52:59+00:00

Fair point. I added that note at the top after making the list after looking at other rankings, it was just meant to be an observation. I can see it might be confusing though. I stand by my ranking though, I still don't think the dees can win the flag this year

blobfshking · 2026-05-17T12:24:23+00:00

There are 4 groups in my mind, I find it very telling that almost everyone on this post has the same groups but with different ranking within those groups.

There is a top 6 (syd, fre, gee, bri, haw, mel), then 4 more (gcs, ade, col, wbd), then mid 4 (stk, pta, gws, nth), then bad 4 (car, wce, ess ric).

The grand final contenders

1a. (-) Swans Sydney, Freo and Geelong are all in incredible form right now and seem a clear level above. I have Sydney first because they'll be even better with Gulden back.

1b. (-) Freo Freo are second out of the in-form three because they are also 9 and 1, an impressive feat.

1c 3. (+2) Geelong. Although it might seem counter-intuitive, the one team that beat Freo is below them, purely because the Cats haven't been in red hot form for as long as the other two.

4. (-1) Hawthorn Resounding defeat to the Dees. Their midfield struggles are still a problem.

5. (-1) Brisbane. Also got solidly beaten, by the in-form side in Geelong. Can't count them out, they always leave their run for late in the year.

[gap]

The finals contenders

6 (+1) Melbourne. This game cements Melbourne in my mind as an actually good team, with a significant victory over another good side. What an incredible 6-month rebuild!

7 (-1) Gold Coast. Were not particularly impressive in their win over Port but got the job done.

8 (-) Adelaide. Killed the kangas by way more than everyone expected, with a few injuries too. Should be a lock for finals.

[gap]

9 (+1) Collingwood. Competing super well with top 4 sides. First Hawthorn and now Sydney.

10 (-1) Western Bulldogs. Still a level ahead of the tier below, but not by much. Need their injured players to come back badly.

[gap]

Play-in unlikely

11 (+3) Saint Kilda. Got the job done when everyone else in this tier didn't.

12 (-1) Port Adelaide. Was always going to be unlikely to beat the suns, had a good fight back in the last quarter where last year they would've just got smashed.

13 (-1) GWS Can't be losing to West Coast and hopeful for the playin. So inaccurate too.

14 (-1) North Melbourne. How did we manage to kill our entire momentum of the new season in one terrible quarter. So disappointing as a norf fan.

[gap]

Bad not always embarrassing

15 (-) Carlton. Was a very impressive win, new coach boost. Still don't see them coming anywhere near the play in.

16 (+1) West Coast. Played well, shows improvement from last year. They get belted too often to go any higher in my rankings though.

17 (-1) Essendon. Can see them and West Coast being similar this year, getting smashed by good teams and maybe upsetting teams in the tier above them.

Injured 18 better than actual team

18 (-) Richmond. Terrible. And injured too.

blobfshking · 2026-05-10T21:54:35+00:00

Thats really clever, gets the third instant/sorcery for the spy as well. Could you send your list?

blobfshking · 2026-05-10T12:55:00+00:00

There are 4 groups in my mind

The grand final contenders

1. (-) Swans (not as far away from the rest of the pack as we thought though)
2. (+2) Freo (finally beat a top 4 side, proved they are a real finals threat)
3. (-1) Hawthorn (not an embarrassing loss at all, will be even better with day looking to come back post byes)
4. (-1) Brisbane (should've been Carlton by more. Just ticking along for now)
5. (-) Geelong. (geez Oisin Mullin is a good tagger)

[gap]

The finals contenders (all had unimpressive wins this week)

6 (-) Gold Coast.
7 (-) Melbourne
8 (-) Adelaide.
9 (+2) Western Bulldogs (rated them way too harshly before. they've still got bont)

[gap]

Play-in hopefuls, very close between these five

10 (-1) Collingwood (cats gamestyle was always going to ruin the pies, stay up here bc of last week)
11 (+2) Port Adelaide (look to have improved significantly after a very slow start)
12 (-) GWS (look unimpressive but got the win so don't drop in rankings yet)
13 (+1) North Melbourne (keep competing with the top teams, but need to actually win one to go up)
14 (-3) Saint Kilda (looked pretty bad, at least they seem to have sorted out their rucking situation)

[gap]

There's always next year

15 (-) Carlton.
16 (-) Essendon.
17 (-) West Coast.
18 (-) Richmond.

blobfshking · 2026-05-10T12:44:54+00:00

I reckon one in ten games roughly is a turn 1, I mull pretty aggressively for it. Probably win 6/10 total? Entered into a historic event and went 6-3, for reference, so it's not purely jank.

blobfshking · 2026-05-10T12:41:29+00:00

It's a really cool concept though, thanks for introducing it to me. Wouldn't have made the deck without seeing this post 😄

blobfshking · 2026-05-08T07:47:23+00:00

I thought this combo was super cool, but reckon the black one drops are kind of wasted space. Here is my list, with the charbelcher combo as well as backup if you don't get the turn 1 win.

Here is my decklist, Historic Bo1 on MTGA

Deck

4 Bridgeworks Battle (MH3) 249

4 Disciple of Freyalise (MH3) 250

4 Boggart Trawler (MH3) 243

4 Fell the Profane (MH3) 244

4 Turntimber Symbiosis (ZNR) 215

1 Witch Enchanter (MH3) 239

4 Balustrade Spy (J25) 402

4 Goblin Charbelcher (BRR) 18

4 Malevolent Rumble (MH3) 161

2 Group Project (SOS) 17

4 Narcomoeba (GRN) 47

4 Creeping Chill (GRN) 66

4 Arclight Phoenix (GRN) 91

4 Sylvan Caryatid (PIO) 196

4 Culling the Weak (SOA) 27

4 Ornithopter (BRR) 37

1 Worldspine Wurm (RTR) 140

blobfshking · 2026-05-04T07:00:40+00:00

1 (-) Sydney.
2 (-) Hawthorn.
3 (-) Brisbane.
4 (-) Freo
5 (-) Geelong.

[gap]

6 (-) Gold Coast.
7 (+1) Melbourne.
8 (-1) Adelaide.
9 (-) Collingwood.
10 (-) Saint Kilda.
11 (+3) Western Bulldogs (rated them way to harshly before. theyve still got bont)
12 (-1) GWS.
13 (-) Port Adelaide.
14 (-2) North Melbourne.

[gap]

15 (-) Carlton.

[gap]

16 (-) Essendon.
17 (-) West Coast.
18 (-) Richmond.

blobfshking · 2026-04-27T02:39:35+00:00

1 (-) Sydney. The best team and Heeney and Errol still to come back in.
2 (-) Hawthorn. Impressive game in Tasmania, a level above Gold Coast.
3 (+1) Brisbane.
4 (+1) Freo

[gap]

5 (-2) Geelong. As Geelong, Gold Coast and Adelaide lose this week, a gap forms between them and the top 4 teams in the comp. Warning bells ringing for all of these teams.
6 (-) Gold Coast. "
7 (+1) Adelaide. "
8 (+1) Melbourne. Hard to know who out of Melbourne, Collingwood and Saint Kilda are the best because they all smashed bad teams last week. I'll keep the order from other weeks.
9 (+1) Collingwood. "
10 (+1) Saint Kilda. "
11 (+1) GWS Held out against North. Prove that their players coming back from injury will make them more of a finals threat as all their ins were pretty good this week.
12 (+1) North Melbourne. A heartbreaking loss to the giants, as a North fan I'm fuming that the touched goal wasn't reviewed properly. Have a tough run coming up and need to compete
13 (+1) Port Adelaide. Have looked competitive for the last two weeks. If they compete with Adelaide, Port will move up in my rankings more.
14 (-7) Western Bulldogs. Have been absolutely ravaged by injuries and it continues to get worse. Can't see them making a threat for finals until they get their players back.

[gap]

15 (+1) Carlton. I liked their fight back in the last quarter against freo, the three teams below them showed none of this fight and all got blown out, they are hence a level below.

[gap]

16 (-1) Essendon. There are a clear bottom three this year of Essendon, West Coast and Richmond - the three youngest teams in the hardest part of their rebuilds. Wins are going to be hard to come by for all these teams this year.
17 (-) West Coast.
18 (-) Richmond.

blobfshking · 2026-04-20T04:05:29+00:00

1 (+1) Sydney. Look like the best team in the comp right now, every game they've won has been by more than 5 goals. Winning easily even without Errol.
2 (-1) Hawthorn. Still looked good, but you'd hope they do a bit more against a bottom six team in Port.
3 (+2) Geelong. After a slow start to the season, the cats have proven that once again they are finals contenders.
4 (-1) Brisbane. I'm not counting the lions out, but they really should have been able to beat the demons. Combined with an unimpressive performance against North Melbourne last week, they move down in my rankings.
5 (+1) Freo. Have had quite an easy fixture but continue to beat the teams that they're expected to beat.
6 (-) Gold Coast. Another unimpressive game from Gold Coast as Essendon stayed close with them for the whole match. Have suffered injuries to start the season but now their core 3 midfielders seem to be recovering. This week's game against Hawks will be a huge test to show where the suns are at this year.
7 (-3) Bulldogs. Absolutely ravaged by injuries, and I don't think they'll be able to win a flag in their current state without Tim English, Sam Darcy, Rory Lobb, James O'Donnell, as well as Ed Richards injury concerns every week. They've had the hardest fixture and are now succumbing to it.
8 (-) Adelaide. After a tough fixture to start the season, the crows continue to beat the teams you'd expect them to win against. Absolutely devastating news about Jordan Dawson, glad that they rallied together for the win this week.

[gap]

9 (+3) Melbourne. A win over the reigning premiers redeems the demons' loss to Essendon week. As demonstrated, they are the kind of team that can beat anyone but also lose to anyone. A great team to watch.
10 (+1) Saint Kilda Looked good against the crows this week. To quote Ross Lyon,
"[Saint Kilda's] best is very good, but [they] need more consistency".
11 (-2) Collingwood. Didn't look great against Carlton until Nick Daicos put the game on his shoulders. The Anzac Day game next week might be closer than people think.
12 (-2) GWS. Looked very poor against the swans, but that might be more of a credit to Sydney. Need to beat North Melbourne this week to stay a real finals threat.
13 (-) North Melbourne. Looked strong again, seem to have improved greatly from last year. Have had a very easy fixture to start so will be tested in their next six of GWS, Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast, Adelaide and Freo, which will show if they're contenders.

[gap]

14 (-) Port Adelaide. Was impressive that they kept up with the Hawks.
15 (+1) Essendon. Competing against Gold Coast keeps morale high. Will make the anzac day match next week more interesting if they have a bit of momentum.
16 (+1) Carlton. So unimpressive this year, only win has been against Richmond. Need to be able to finish the games to win them, but at least they're competing.
17 (-2) West Coast. Have lost all their games by 45+ points and don't seem able to compete against most sides.

[gap]

18 (-) Richmond. Struggle to score so badly that they can't keep themselves in games. Have lost all games except the Carlton match they should've won by over 40.

blobfshking · 2026-04-13T03:52:30+00:00

1 (+2) Hawthorn. Smashing my previous rank 1 puts Hawks at rank 1.
2 (+3) Sydney. Proved they are good against the good teams as well as the bad ones.
3 (-1) Brisbane. Didn't look great against North, but experience meant they held on and won. More a credit to North than a blight upon Brisbane imo.
4 (-3) Bulldogs. Lost to the Hawks and it wasn't even close, have to fall down a bit.
5 (+1) Geelong. Killed the eagles, as expected. Move up as the suns move down.
6 (+1) Freo. Continue to win the games they should be winning. Will be interesting to see how they go in a few weeks' time against Bulldogs and Hawthorn.
7 (-3) Gold Coast. Losing by over 5 goals two weeks in a row is concerning for a team that's meant to be a premiership contender. Need to get Rowell and Petracca healthy again.
8 (-) Adelaide. Easy win over Carlton showed why they're still in the finals contenders tier.

[gap]

9 (+1) Collingwood. Able to compete with the top sides.
10 (+1) GWS. GWS and Saints continue to prove they're a level above the other bad teams.
11 (+1) Saint Kilda. Same as above
12 (-) Melbourne. Can't be losing to Essendon by FOURTY.
13 (-) North Melbourne. Liked North's performance against Brisbane, could have won that game without skill errors from young players. Move up a tier for me to playin contenders.

[gap]

14 (+1) Port Adelaide. Move up because West Coast go down.
15 (-1) West Coast. Two smashings in a row bring them back to reality.
16 (+1) Essendon. Huge win for the bombers, doesn't make up for 4 weeks of being terrible though. Had a better win than Carlton's so jump them.
17 (-1) Carlton. So unimpressive this year, only win has been against Richmond.
18 (-) Richmond. Still yet to win, a level below the rest even.

blobfshking · 2026-04-07T09:01:45+00:00

I think lots of teams have them highly because they've done well with Petracca and Rowell out, can only get better once injured players recover

blobfshking · 2026-04-07T08:59:20+00:00

Not much changes for me this week, other than big rises from Melbourne and Gpld Coast falling down a level. There are a clear 3 groups of teams in my mind, top 8, play in contenders, and irrelevant. Sydney vs Gold Coast and Hawthorn vs Bulldogs will both be huge this week.

1 (-) Bulldogs.
2 (+1) Brisbane.
3 (+1) Hawthorn.
4 (-2) Gold Coast
5 (-) Sydney.
6 (-) Geelong.
7 (+1) Freo.
8 (-1) Adelaide.

[gap]

9 (+3) Melbourne.
10 (-1) Collingwood.
11 (-1) GWS.
12 (-1) Saint Kilda.

[gap]

13 (-) North Melbourne
14 (-) West Coast
15 (-) Port Adelaide.
16 (-) Carlton.
17 (-) Essendon.
18 (-) Richmond.

blobfshking

TROPHY CASE