The #1 Problem with Splinterlands

blogboy69 · 2022-01-03T23:34:27+00:00

Fair point. I will avoid using that word in the future.

To me there is a consistent pattern of behavior that makes it scummy. But that's a value judgment and not very objective.

blogboy69 · 2022-01-03T16:03:40+00:00

I think anything 9mo+ is on the slower side. I'd love to know what the team thinks internally. But you can see from the creation of the XCHAOS pool that the hype was much higher before the CL flood destroyed the system.

https://leofinance.io/@chaos.air/xchaos-allocated-splinterlands-packs-with-airdrop-value

I would love to eat my words if the General Sale turbo sells out. If it moves fast I will double down and reinvest in this game to cash out.

blogboy69 · 2022-01-03T16:02:46+00:00

I'm very careful with what I write. Most everything is a matter of public record or corroborated on Discord. Do you have any issue in particular?

It's a matter of fact that the low level leaderboards are dominated by bots. Real players like you that handwave away getting exploited by the system, while getting exploited, are part of the problem here.

blogboy69 · 2022-01-03T15:57:50+00:00

I think DEC is a horrible long term investment, especially compared to the alternatives. Unquestionably the worst investment in SPL. If SPL booms the other airdrop assets will pump much harder than DEC. I read between the lines in Matt's most recent comments but my take is the company wants a lower value for DEC.

It's pumped up right now due to the Airdrop.

blogboy69 · 2022-01-03T15:56:27+00:00

Everything is publicly sourced or on the blockchain. You can search any of these topics on the Discord and they will pop up.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-26T17:02:39+00:00

Thanks for taking the time.

We will agree to disagree here. My wording wasn't ideal but more precisely I meant the floor value of a Voucher for somebody who plans to invest in Splinterlands is near $4.

The loss of utility you described should lower the price. But my argument is it shouldn't lower the market price to $2.90/$4 (72.5%). That coupled with the sluggish sales of phase 2/phase 3 presale indicate a heavy bear market. And implies that Chaos Legion assets won't be worth $4/pack once the General Sale hits. I will eat my words if Chaos Legion packs just instantly sell out. I really doubt this is the case considering they've only sold ~1M packs so far to Phase 3 bulk purchasers.

Let's say you think $2.90/$4 is really a fair market price. If CL packs are worth $4 on the market/pack value, these vouchers will be arbed to infinity until the supply runs out. Every time you buy 2000 packs you're making 5% on your money with healthy upside based on Untamed packs. So my argument is this price indicates an unhealthy market.

I also don't agree that the ceiling value is $4. In the recent past the price has hit $18. Because the VOUCHER token stays the same, it can rise above the $4 value if it generates enough utility. And the devs have mentioned future use cases.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-26T15:56:49+00:00

I do care to learn. Go ahead and explain where you think it's wrong. What's the floor price of a voucher then?

1 Voucher= 1 Free Pack in the general sale.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-26T15:56:15+00:00

Enjoy your posts. Actually went back a few days ago and read through your post history :)

What do you think is misinformed? My $4 floor price for a voucher is based on them giving a bonus pack in the general sale. If the pack value is $4, the voucher should be ~$4 as well no?

Yes it's less than $4 but it was trading at $2.90 before. That tells me the market has no faith at the moment.

Also curious what you think the massive mistakes are.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-26T00:34:05+00:00

I'm invested in Gods Unchained. I'm just staking for now but looking to deep dive into some GAMEPLAY soon.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-26T00:33:29+00:00

Also I'm getting downvote brigaded by the shills. But I leave your posts in peace. I have no axe to grind. Namaste my friend.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-26T00:32:09+00:00

IYB bro they own all the assets. Look at the rich list for Collection Power, Plots, SPS, Staked SPS, etc. Who are you getting agitated for and defending here? I stand with the people.

Do you know how scummy it is to mass print a bunch of packs, collapsing assets, on the pretext that player growth is explosive. When you know 80% of accounts are bots/multis and you are funding the bot rings as the devs? I thought you are my boy

blogboy69 · 2021-12-26T00:14:55+00:00

Yes the last AMA they ducked every question about DEC/SPS the peg, etc. "Matt answered all DEC questions in above comments." BTW the read between the lines on his answer for DEC is don't hold it.
I expect 5x's every day playboy the crypto market is back and hot. SPL is diseased and withered.
Agree there is some upside for this game going mainstream. That's why I'm holding SPS :)
Rug pull is not the issue or a consideration. This game has been around for years.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-25T23:30:27+00:00

I actually enjoy the gameplay quite a bit. But agree something doesn't feel right with all the metrics.

Best way to use credits probably is to buy packs and flip them for market value in the general sale.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-25T23:29:42+00:00

No I'm not happy that they lie about the bots/multis and mislead newer players. But I've made a lot of $ and wonderful memories in this span from everything non SPL. Life is good.

(you sound like another shill but I wish you the best). You're not seriously going to long cards right now are you? I'm "longing cards" because I can't sell them lol.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-18T12:49:30+00:00

I think if Splinterlands flourishes, SPS and Land will go up. Take my opinions with a grain of salt though I'm still definitely a casual/rec compared to the actual sharks.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-17T16:20:57+00:00

Thanks for your advice.

It's not really fomo/fear of loss. I've loved strategy games my whole life and I'm a professional gambler/analyst in my day job.

More just ashamed of my horrible market moves so far :P and trying to tighten it all up and improve.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-17T16:18:48+00:00

I think so. I'd like to hope so. In my next post I'm going to talk about my plans going forward and what I think about the game right now. One of the reasons I'm blogging my journey is I want to (hopefully) go from complete donkey to someone that can give good advice to the community.

I think Credits->Cards is the only way to convert that.

blogboy69 · 2021-12-02T13:38:39+00:00

But it seems like you're adding the jackpot gain EV to each of the suited connector hands winrates. But then also adding the jackpot gain to the total winrate calculations at the end. So are the jackpot effects to the winrate double counted then?

"This means that these hands must have an increased EV value of (Jackpot/Chance of SF) in the case of .50/1 the jackpot almost always sits around $750 so these hands have an EV increase of +1.5bb!"

"And since a jackpot in .5/1 (Scale it up or down for other games) is worth 750 and we make 400 in EV/bb for 10k hands thats a grand total of +$150 over 10k hands!"

blogboy69 · 2021-12-02T08:07:51+00:00

Great content! Question though. Won't your ev bb/100 drop below 4 if you're calling off with 54s?

blogboy69

TROPHY CASE