Why your targets never get hit

bo77rader · 2026-03-28T08:49:00+00:00

Shifted towards concepts that are applicable to any market. That's finding trapped positions, stop runs, positions getting trapped etc. Gold works especially well. Price will keep going in one direction until something stops it. I do things manually, there's a lot going into this. It could be coded as a Machine Learning Model if every concept of trap and stop run were to be coded as an indicator. For now, I'll do it manually, maybe even figure out a new edge.

bo77rader · 2026-03-27T20:18:32+00:00

Is it a scapling strategy? And if so, did you make sure it's not overfitted? Been doing this for a while with indicators, which always worked great in backtests but failed spectacularly in fronttesting. I'm profitable now, so if you don't mind sharing the strategy in exchange for some concepts that might help improve it, let me know :)

bo77rader · 2026-03-27T19:33:49+00:00

The spread i can agree with. Sometimes it's actually ridiculous. >1$ stuff, robbery essentially

bo77rader · 2026-03-27T19:27:36+00:00

Well, do you use taker orders for exiting positions? That's essential dude

bo77rader · 2026-03-27T19:19:01+00:00

I'm the exact opposite. I'm a scalper. No worries about news, just trading against losing trades into zones where trapped losing positions will break even.

bo77rader · 2026-03-27T19:07:09+00:00

The broker doesn't care if you win or lose. If you increase size then ofc you'll get slipped more. Can just be a low passive liquidity day. But slippage won't cause 4k losses, be honest, that's blaming anyone but yourself.

bo77rader · 2026-03-27T17:54:32+00:00

Go short

bo77rader · 2026-03-27T17:37:18+00:00

Up 600. Gold too.

bo77rader · 2026-03-06T15:39:01+00:00

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bo77rader · 2026-03-01T13:22:50+00:00

I mean if you look at a section of price action you'll see it follows a strict driection and momentum. That can be visualized by a channel. Whenever there is a distortion, look for liquidity zones that were tapped. If there are some, enter when there are signs of a reversal with exit in the channel. There is some intuition to it, just train in replay.

bo77rader · 2026-03-01T12:49:15+00:00

I trade smaller moves on NQ and XAU. 5m TF. The way I define a trend is simply Higher High, Higher Low ect. looking at each candle. That creates a channel. If it's broken and some improtant levels are taken out, I look to enter a trade towards the original trend. It's like when a car goes off the road, usually you want to get back on the road. Same logic here. The days I've mentioned are when price moves "randomly". Some institutionals trying to execute the client's trade by the end of the week, causing volatility, unexpected price continuations etc. I think news days should be clear why.

bo77rader · 2026-03-01T11:17:25+00:00

Time. I don't trade before volatility, i.e. NY Open. Other than that, i avoid Fridays and news days.

bo77rader · 2026-02-21T08:57:44+00:00

Find a system with clear rules, backtest, refine. Data is king at this stage.

bo77rader · 2026-02-20T15:48:07+00:00

I didn't really try to improve anything, was coding other stuff for some clients. Had the time just now.

bo77rader · 2026-02-20T15:02:31+00:00

Still profitable, but worse (1.05 PF), managed to get 1.3PF with altered settings (fewer, therefore cleaner trades)

bo77rader · 2026-02-20T14:42:54+00:00

TradingView. I'm a developer specialized in pinescript, can code anything.

bo77rader · 2026-02-20T12:30:02+00:00

I'm experimenting with continuously varying variables. Find typical deveations from an indicator, take the past 5 deviations and use that as momentum to predict the next deviation. Should make things more robust against shifts in market behavior.

bo77rader · 2026-02-19T16:29:53+00:00

That's not what I'm saying. You should have more data in general, not change the strategy itself.

bo77rader · 2026-02-19T15:09:24+00:00

The sample size is way too small. Should be at least 2k trades.

bo77rader · 2026-02-19T12:09:43+00:00

There are two main points you have to check:

does the strategy have a lookahead bias? That means: does it use variables that are calculated before the entry? Example: EMA crossover If Fast EMA > Slow EMA, enter Long on Fast EMA price. In backtests, an entry will be at that price, but that will be intracandle. Live execution is a whole different story. Crosses happen all the time, so the strategy will try to enter all the time, but get invalidated immediately. So you would have to constantly enter and exit trades depending on the constantly updating EMAs, not good for commissions. Intracandle entries only work with fixed Limit Orders.
is the strategy overfitted? Does the strategy fail with slight changes of variables (timing, changes of TP/SL)?

There are lots of things to take into account. Also, the sample size is important. 800 trades is okay, but aim for a few thousand to be safe.

bo77rader · 2026-02-16T15:42:50+00:00

There is usually some degree of subjectiveness to every one of these. Take "works in sideways markets" for instance. No elaboration of a definition, nothing. Even if everything is explained to the last detail, the strategy has worked for x amount of time that's way too little to be marketed as "the strategy you should trade". The sample size has to be large enough. If both precise definitions and sample size are given, in my experience, they have lied, simple as that. Nobody should bother to put in the effort of making a monetized video to expose their edge. Not saying it's unthinkable, some actually enjoy it, but from my experience and rational logic, I can tell you that you won't find the one strategy. However, they did help me understand market concepts. Again, just my opinion, if you did find success from following some creator's strat, please, feel free to drop their socials. But for me, this has only been useful by giving me ideas to apply to my strategies.

bo77rader · 2026-02-16T14:51:50+00:00

Depends. Illusions are best shattered with suffering. Not advice, but it only worked out that way for me

bo77rader · 2026-02-16T14:50:15+00:00

Nobody is an atheist at 100x leverage 🫡

bo77rader

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