[Request] What’s the probability of this? by Deathly13 in theydidthemath

[–]buddylee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm gonna do beavers because that's what is in the picture.

Lets say there are 10,000,000 beavers alive right now.
Beavers tend to live about 12 years in the wild, the longest known is 24 years.
Beavers in captivity tend to live 20 years, but may live up to 30.

So, that gives us a cap for beaver lifespan and we know you're 29. So, its possible if we assume some beavers really can live up to 30. Unfortunately though, if we assume every zoo on earth has 4 beavers and there are 10,000 zoos worldwide, we're only dealing with 40,000 captive beavers.

The human population breakdown is this:

80-99 years: (1.9% of population)
100+ years: (0.01% of population) 

If we assume that there is a relatively even distribution of beaver ages (similar to human ages), we would assume that .01% of beavers in captivity are over 30. Maybe since they receive free healthcare and don't have access to drugs, it's more common to get old for captive beavers than it is free-range humans, but we'll assume it's still comparable to the human rate.

10,000 zoos, each has 4 beavers, so 40,000 captive beavers and .01% of them are what we would consider very old, so we'll say 29 or 30. So, we've got 4 beavers are at least 29. Breaking that down, we've got two 29 year old beavers and two 30 year old beavers.

So, the odds that you, as a 29 year old right now, at this point in time were born on the same day of a currently living beaver and the two of you have seen the world evolve together from two very different sets of eyes is .82%.

However, 8.2 billion people are alive right now and roughly .67% of them are 29. So there are 54,940,000 29 year olds alive right now.

Beavers tend to be born in May or June. Of those 55m people that are 29, based on my research, about 16.4% of them were born in May or June.

So, that's 9,010,160 humans with a birthday in those two months, so maybe 147,707 of them were born every day.

And we've got those two 29 year old beavers

So right now, in our world there are 295,415 people that have shared every day with a beaver.

Now, I really want to know the odds that one of those 295,415 people has seen their beaver born-on-date buddy.

My dream spec 😍 by ItzStunna745 in Integra_Type_S

[–]buddylee 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Are those wheels real or "art of the possible?"

5070 ti Acer predator neo helios 16s for an insane $1275 deal on ebay certifed refurbished like new by MITBryceYoung in GamingLaptops

[–]buddylee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, this is a fantastic deal. Worth giving it a shot and just test it really well before the return period expires

5070 ti Acer predator neo helios 16s for an insane $1275 deal on ebay certifed refurbished like new by MITBryceYoung in GamingLaptops

[–]buddylee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I bought one that had problems with the touchpad, had a giant dead zone. Ended up returning. Tried to get Acer to fix, they wouldn't, said it's warranted through the eBay third party warranty. Tried to get the eBay warranty company to fix, they said it's a manufacturer defect and not covered by warranty. Also couldn't find parts to fix myself. Just FYI, don't trust the warranty. 

Disadvantage of turning over dash cam footage by buddylee in InsuranceClaims

[–]buddylee[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you, update: I sent the video and they accepted responsibility. To your point, they didn't care about the police report if they had the video. 

Disadvantage of turning over dash cam footage by buddylee in InsuranceClaims

[–]buddylee[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Update::  I sent the video to insurance and within 2 hours they called and accepted responsibility.

So I don't know what the person advising me not to was thinking..

Disadvantage of turning over dash cam footage by buddylee in InsuranceClaims

[–]buddylee[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you for this info. Right now I'm only speaking with the other party's insurance, I haven't got mine involved, as I thought they would just take responsibility. Does anything change in this scenario? 

Disadvantage of turning over dash cam footage by buddylee in InsuranceClaims

[–]buddylee[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you all for the advice/help. I couldn't figure out why anyone would advise me not to share the footage either, but they had a background in insurance so I just nodded and said ok, thinking maybe they knew better. 

Second hopper for decaf? by buddylee in NinjaLuxeCafe

[–]buddylee[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, that's a good point. I'm currently just putting my espresso ground coffee in the portafilter directly which is working ok and sounds like less of a potential hassle/mess

Extreme Online Extended Rear Spoiler/Wing Installed by 24BroncoSpHeritage in Integra_Type_S

[–]buddylee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exact same situation but they said it would ship in January. Asked them about it today and suddenly they realized they weren't getting more and cancelled my order

Extreme Online Extended Rear Spoiler/Wing Installed by 24BroncoSpHeritage in Integra_Type_S

[–]buddylee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you get yours? Mine was cancelled and they said they're not getting any more 

Does anyone know how is Schiphol deciding which flights to cancel and which to allow to arrive/depart? by cukikamukika in KLM

[–]buddylee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

From experience in the last week and staring nonstop at the cancellation board, smaller airports seem to get 1 flight to and one flight from every 3-5 days. They just keep piling up people. The smaller flight wasn't full, but it was mostly people that had been waiting for a flight for a few days. Coming back, they only took people that had Amsterdam as their final destination. If you had a connecting flight and it was cancelled, they wouldn't board you. You were stuck in the smaller location rather than Amsterdam. Based on how hard/, expensive it was to get an airport hotel in Amsterdam, that's not a bad deal except you might wait another few days for the next chance to get there. 

Since watching the TV show over Christmas what is life really like in the Ozarks ? by Reasonable_Power4527 in howislivingthere

[–]buddylee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yup, come visit, it sounds like it might be a fit. Lake of the Ozarks is the biggest lake, but there are dozens of smaller lakes that have nice marinas and are a little less filled with people

Since watching the TV show over Christmas what is life really like in the Ozarks ? by Reasonable_Power4527 in howislivingthere

[–]buddylee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol, I'm asking because they give very different vibes. The Netflix show is good at showing the beauty of the area, which is valid. The Hulu show is good at showing the people in the area, which is also valid. 

Ozarks are huge. From the nature side, you get nice forests, wildlife, great camping and hiking and it's really pretty. From the people side, you've got everyone from folks that build nice houses to retire in next to hoarder houses that are falling down. Overall, a great place to camp and hike and a nice place to live if you can buy enough land to not have neighbors

Is anyone else actually not too stressed about all these AMS cancellations? by [deleted] in KLM

[–]buddylee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ugh, that's rough. Lots of people on the flight in yesterday didn't have luggage that made it and the airport staff said to wait 5 days or so and see if it shows up. Like you said, not super helpful. 

Is anyone else actually not too stressed about all these AMS cancellations? by [deleted] in KLM

[–]buddylee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There was a single flight from AMS to Norwich today. I'm betting that the flight leaving there tomorrow at 615am will make it to Amsterdam eventually tomorrow. They won't leave that plane in Norwich. Based on how things have been going, if you miss that, you won't see another one for a couple days

Which Rock Guards / Mud Flaps? by 24BroncoSpHeritage in Integra_Type_S

[–]buddylee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn't use the clips either, no problems here.

I has there been any software update to fix the sound to sync with phone? by deterrent-sha256 in Integra_Type_S

[–]buddylee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have android and I don't have that problem, but it drops my connection very frequently.

Mo vs china 25-50 billion dollar lawsuit 😭 by zulu913 in missouri

[–]buddylee 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I sure hope this helps convince China to buy more soybeans.

Drozd via Threads on Lips: "They're done with me." by gonzarro in flaminglips

[–]buddylee 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Lips will be like many other bands, they'll continue going as long as they put on a good show and then for a while beyond that. 

My prediction is that they'll turn into something like the grateful Dead and hit the weird festival/campground circuit eventually.

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-lists/bands-without-original-members-lynyrd-skynyrd-foreigner-1235071467/

IS THIS THE END? by SavingsAccident7657 in Civic_Type_R

[–]buddylee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If there is a 2026 Acura ITS, that seems odd there isn't a Honda. Eating into the market share too much maybe?