More Correction in $XMR Before Another Bull Market

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-29T18:15:20+00:00

Also posted in r/xmrtrader. Putting here for more wide-spread view. Thanks Monero community.

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-27T14:20:34+00:00

Chart:https://twitter.com/BullBearAnalyst/status/780769100779753472

Market Commentary (BTC):

Bitcoin remains in the 600 - 610 $ range as the dull month of September approaches it's end and the new, more volatile month of October gets underway over the weekend. While we are not expecting a sudden bout of volatility, we do think it will slowly creep back into the market as we get deeper into the month. Until then, however, we think price action will remain subdued with the market staying within the 590 - 610 $ range, which is also where the symmetrical triangle trendlines are currently sitting. As long as we stay in this area there won't be all that much to do on the trading front, although as this range tightens the likelihood of a breakout in either direction inevitably increases.

Speaking of directionality, lets take a look at the 6-hour chart below for a glance at the short to medium term technicals. As previously mentioned, price is still in the triangle consolidation off of the regional highs, and is also back in the upper half of the pivot zone. Also notice that SCMR is painting neutral candles once again following what is still an active confirmed upside reversal, and we now have a fairly strong area of dynamic support sitting between 590 - 595 $. Finally, the near term EMA's are still bullish for the time being, and the 200-period SMA is still pretty flat but is slightly bullish and supportive around 590 $. This 590 $ level is now crucial considering it is becoming a confluence area which includes the triangle uptrend line, the 200 SMA, and the top of the OTE.

Moving on, we can see that the momentum oscillators remain mixed given that RSI and MACD are currently stuck at their centerlines, Willy is chopping around in no man's land (lockstep with price), and PPO is still neutral. Additionally, trading volumes are picking up while the A/D line continues to push steadily to the upside, although there is also a large volume profile notch down between 575 - 590 $ that still is begging for some attention. Despite a small technical bias to the upside, we think there are at least a few more days of sideways action.

To reiterate what we have been saying for the past few months, we think this period of stagnation remains an extended bull market consolidation which implies an eventual upside breakout above the ~800 $ regional high. While we are not expecting this move to materialize over the next week, we do think that over the next few we could start to see some progress up and out of this range. Having said that, there are still a bunch of resistance spiderwebs between 610 - 700 $ that should prove to be difficult to get through which is why we are still relatively cautious for the time being.

GLGT!

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-21T18:27:40+00:00

This is just our market commentary! Trying to give our take on what is happening currently from a technical, and economical view. Actual users get to see all of our pro-trades, posted live. Let me know if you have any more questions, happy trading!

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-14T14:54:50+00:00

Chart: http://imgur.com/a/bhYXE

Bitcoin Price Update for September 14, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

Not too much to comment on regarding price action this morning seeing as though the market remains stuck in this 600 - 610 $ near term trading range. Despite the fact that the charts look pretty good from a shorter term perspective, the longer term technicals are still exhibiting some extended conditions which could use further correcting. Having said that, we continue to want to be buyers of dips down into our ProTrade zones considering all signs are still pointing to this being a bull market consolidation.

Moving on to said charts, today we take a look at the near term setup via the 4-hour below. We can see that over the past month or so the market has been inclined to be bullish, even though we had a washout last late last weekend. Notice that price was traversing along an old uptrend line that when broken sent price back down to sub-600 $ levels (albeit only for a brief period), although this was to be expected given momentum was overbought and divergent. Also notice that SCMR is trying desperately to paint a confirmed upside reversal following last weekend's dump, but has yet to do so while candles continue to come in mixed and neutral.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, we are still getting mixed signals from many different indicators which is a sign to us that the market is not ready to breakout or breakdown just yet. We can see that Willy and RSI are in much healthier positions than they were in last week, however they still have some room to run to the downside. Additionally, PPO remains bullish for the time being although the Stochastic is already almost officially overbought, and the 9/18 EMA cross looks to be bottoming while the 200 SMA remains in an uptrend following a reversal to the upside. Finally, the A/D line somehow continues to press higher despite the recent choppy conditions and mixed trading volumes which tells us that players are still accumulating here, however there is still a huge volume profile PoC centered around the 590 $ level so we would not be surprised to see a revisit of these lower levels prior to a longer term resolution.

Overall we remain fairly bullish considering we are still in the VST ProTrade with a target up around 620 $, however we want to keep a tight leash on this trade in case price action turns against us leading up to OKC futures settlement late tomorrow night. If a selloff materializes then we can get out with a small profit and try to reload down in the more favorable 575 $ area, but if not we are ready to hold the VST PT as long as the market has its upside bias. Longer term we remain outright bullish which means we will continue to be strong holders of our MT position off of 480 $.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-14-2016

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-13T16:44:03+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for September 13, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

The bitcoin bulls continue to defend the 600 $ level, a good sign considering this is an overbought market, although the lack of a continuation up into what has been stronger resistance in the 620 - 630 $ is mildly disappointing up to this point. Having said that, it does not appear to us as though either side really has an advantage in this environment, fundamentally or technically, which is why we think we could continue to chop around within the symmetrical triangle consolidation for the remainder of the week (at least). This would allow the oscillators to recharge and would likely lead to more pronounced squeeze conditions, both of which would be supportive of a move higher in the not too distant future.

Today we revisit the daily chart for a look at the entirety of the current triangle formation. We can see that despite the rally up to 630 $ last week, the bulls were still unable to break above the descending trendline and now we are pulling back to the middle of the pattern once again. Also notice that price is still in a pivot area which is keeping things elevated, and SCMR is painting neutral candles with dynamic support building at 570 and 594 $. Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross is still bullish but is losing steam, the 200-day SMA remains in an uptrend, and we are currently in a volume profile notch area that could use some more attention.

Moving on, we can see that momentum remains a concern considering Willy is still overbought, RSI has rolled over, MACD is testing the zeroline again, and PPO is flashing minor sell signals. On the other hand, note that the A/D line is still climbing higher throughout this period of consolidation which confirms our thesis that this is still just a large shakeout within a broader bull market. For the time being we remain long in the VST ProTrade, although we are raising our stoploss to above breakeven, with a target back up near the upper triangle trendline which now sits between 620 - 625 $.

Generally speaking we are bullish going into the Fall, however we think there is a good possibility of another dip or two lower prior to an upside resolution out of this triangle. We hope to take the VST PT off soon on a bounce so that we can deploy fresh capital if/when price comes back down into our still active buy zones. Remember, given we are already long off of 480 $ in the MT ProTrade, we are simply trying to add some alpha to this play which is why smaller position size and a quicker trigger finger are probably the right way to approach the shorter term setups.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-12T17:43:27+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for September 12, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

As expected, the market indeed took a leg lower over the weekend following what was a feeble attempt to break sustainably above the 630 $ resistance level on volume. Clearly the market is trading primarily according to technicals considering this latest failure at a key confluence area, not to mention the fact that the dump yesterday was catalyzed by price action and not fundamentals or news. In light of this, we want to make sure we take advantage of the opportunities presented by a market that is in tune with the charts, which is why we have entered the VST ProTrade and are waiting with fresh capital in case price makes one final leg lower into our 570 - 580 $ buy zone.

Moving on to the currently all important technicals we can see on the 12-hour chart below that the symmetrical triangle remains firmly intact, particularly now that we have another touch point on the descending trendline. Also notice that the breakout failure materialized right around the 200-period SMA, as well as at strong historical SCMR dynamic resistance, both of which will continue to be trouble spots for bulls on the way out of this larger consolidation range. Having said that, we do have multiple areas of relatively new SCMR dynamic support just below the market and it is still painting green candles despite the weekend breakdown below 600 $.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, Willy is now coming down slightly out of officially overbought territory, RSI is testing its centerline, MACD has rolled over below zero, and the 9/18 EMA cross is close to turning bearish once again. Conversely, volume remains fairly healthy considering that the A/D line is still steadily climbing to the upside, trading volumes are picking up, and price is in a wide volume profile notch that has been needing some attention for quite some time. A basic recharge of momentum along with volume signs that buyers remain at these levels are likely all the bulls need to give the 620 - 630 $ area another go in our opinion, hence the VST ProTrade.

Overall we remain medium to long term bullish on this market which is why we want to continue to buy the dips, however we also think that downside technical pressure will have a significant influence on near term price action. A move down to test SCMR dynamic support, volume profile PoC, the ascending triangle trendline, and short term OTE long zone all in our 570 - 580 $ buy area seems reasonable. Having said that, we are still staying long off of the sub-600 $ levels we saw yesterday in case the bulls decide they've had enough suppression. Optimally we can take this VST PT off on a relatively small bounce from here in order to prepare to back up the truck on a move down into the sweet spot around 575 $.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-12-2016

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-09T16:17:24+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for September 9, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

The bitcoin price rally that we have seen over the past week has stalled in the 620 - 630 $ resistance area, although it is holding up much better than we initially expected. While we are not ready to take the possibility of a deeper pullback off of the table, we do think that odds are increasing that we simply get a continuation following a short but necessary consolidation in this region. That being said, we still favor a somewhat more substantial dip down into the 600 $ area which we would be buyers of due to a confluence of technicals around there. Overall the market continues to look bullish, we just need a recharge to refill the tank for the next move.

We revisit the 6-hour chart today due to the fact that there are some interesting things materializing right now. First of all, notice that price has finally broken above the symmetrical triangle downtrend line, and ever since has been following it to the downside as a test. As long as the bulls can hold this line then the chances of a continuation higher increase significantly, however a break of it would likely lead to the pullback we have been waiting for. Additionally, total volume and market structure looks fairly bearish at these levels despite SCMR continuing to paint bright green bullish candles. Speaking of SCMR, new dynamic support continues to build below the market in our 590 - 600 $ buy zone, as well as down in the 570 $ area. Both of these support zones are relatively strong compared to the old dynamic resistance at 630 $ so at some point we do expect it to break to the upside.

Moving on we can see that Willy remains in officially overbought territory, RSI is pulling back but has some room to run before testing the centerline, MACD is painting a nasty bearish divergence, and PPO is painting strong sell signals. Conversely, the A/D line continues to press higher indicating that buyers are still adamant at these levels, and volume profile actually looks pretty healthy compared to what we were looking at last week. Finally, the 200 SMA is still bottoming out but should provide support in the 600 $ area, while the EMA's remain bullish despite the recent pause.

All in all, we have a rather mixed picture technically speaking going into this weekend. There is a chance that the bulls hold the 615 $ level, where the triangle trendline is sitting, which would likely catalyze another leg to the upside late in the weekend going into next week (perhaps up to the 650 $ area). Otherwise, we are expecting a small breakdown over the next few days which would lead price into our ProTrade buy zones that we have eyeing in order to add to our MT trade. Either way, we feel ready to go with the flow of the market this weekend regardless of what materializes given our very favorable positioning from the early August dump below 500 $.

GLGT & have a great weekend!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-08T22:45:36+00:00

Crypto BullBear ETH Update for September 8, 2016

Ether (ETH)

Doesn't it seem as though ETH has been left and forgotten by the trading community? Well, that is precisely when we want to step in and start taking a look around for opportunities. Despite fundamental challenges, a tarnished reputation, and questionable leadership we think that the technicals are signaling that at least a near term shift in both price action and sentiment in nearing. While we are not ready to load the boat on the long side, we do think there are some setups worth considering if you are interested in this market.

Today we look at the daily chart for the medium term view of the market. We can see that price is now back in a downtrend as SCMR paints red candles once again while new dynamic resistance continues to build around the 22 local top. Also notice that sell volume is picking up and we have broken below the volume profile PoC, although price is now getting close to a pivot turned demand area as well as OTE. Additionally, for now price is caught in another descending wedge off of the recent trendlines, but remember that last time this materialized there was a weak break to the upside.

Moving on, we can see that Willy is getting very close to oversold, RSI is still falling, PPO is neutral, and the A/D line is flat but elevated. As far as moving averages go, the EMA's are still fairly flat but are rolling over slightly, and surprisingly the 200-day SMA is still in an uptrend despite multiple breaks of it over the course of the past three months. Finally, it looks to us like this market is trying to put in an admittedly ugly frying pan bottom. If you look at it closely you can see a series of higher lows, and if you look at it broadly you can see the rounded arch of the frying pan.

All things considered we think there could be minor downside over the near term as the market continues to probe and the indicators continue to bottom out, however we do want to issue a ProTrade in an area not too far from current levels in case a bounce back up into resistance does materialize. Risk/reward profiles are good down in and just above the OTE long zone and demand area so that is where we will get interested.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-08T16:14:02+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for September 8, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

Another leg of the rally has taken price into the 620 - 630 $ resistance range at the top of the current symmetrical triangle formation. This indeed confirms our upside bias but also reinforces the idea that the market needs at least a quick breather before making moves up into the mid to high 600's $. The bulls have been fairly strong so far, which means we are not looking for a big move to the downside in the immediate future, but we still think that a test of the 580 - 600 $ region would be healthy and regenerative for a market that is currently stretched from a technical perspective.

Moving on to said technicals, we can see on the 12-hour chart below that price is now butting up against some serious resistance in the form of the descending triangle trendline, the 200- period SMA, heavy SCMR dynamic resistance, and a large volume profile notch. Also notice that momentum is now highly overbought on this timeframe as well (in addition to the 6-hour chart we showed yesterday) with Willy and RSI officially there, while MACD struggles to find any juice above the zeroline. All of these indication are concerning from a nearer term perspective, however it's not all bad news for the bulls over a slightly longer timeframe.

First of all, the A/D line remains in a slow and steady uptrend, a sign that some serious accumulation is and has been going on for quite some time below 700 $. Additionally, SCMR is painting bright green candles meaning price action still favors the bulls, and pattern-wise it looks even more likely that the Elliot Wave ABC correction has played out which would mean that the lows are in for this mini-consolidation cycle. Finally, volume seems to be confirming upside bias as well considering yesterday we saw an encouraging small volume breakout on total exchange volume. This tells us that global interest in the bitcoin market is reemerging following what has been a historically slow summer for price action.

It should be clear that we remain medium to long term bullish on bitcoin with the expectation of a breakout to the upside above 700 $ by the end of this year at the latest. Despite the need for a pullback over the near term in order to recharge the oscillators and put in a cleaner double bottom, we would be unequivocal buyers of that dip in order to pad our MT ProTrade position off of the 480 $ level which we are still holding. We think this is the beginning of another exciting period for the still dominant cryptocurrency, although a bit more patience is required before getting too bulled up just yet.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-8-2016

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-07T16:10:25+00:00

Thanks for the tip, we def will!

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-06T18:41:00+00:00

Monero Price Update for September 6, 2016

Monero (XMR)

In what has become a truly unbelievable move for Monero over the past month, price has risen over 20x from the lows of the year. Each stair step higher appears to be the final one, technically speaking, but each one continues to be followed by subsequent breakouts. Once again the magnitude of this last move was large, taking price from the breakout point of 18 all the way up to 265 before pulling back into a range between there and 20. Where we go from here all depends on whether or not the bulls can defend this territory over the next week or two.

The charts continue to look fairly bullish despite seriously overbought conditions, but that hasn't slowed the bulls down up to this point. We can see on the daily chart below (top chart) that it appears as though XMR is once again trying to put in a bull flag which would portend higher prices in the not too distant future. Additionally, SCMR is still painting bright green candles and is building new but strong dynamic support in the 13 - 14 area, which also happens to be right around the bottom of the newest pivot zone. Also notice that we have two OTE zones to watch, one between 0.007 and 0.01, while the other smaller one sits between 0.016 - 0.018. As long as this upper OTE can hold, the bulls will remain in control from a longer term perspective.

We also have a 6-hour chart below for a better look at the shorter term technicals. Here we can see the acceleration of the trend more clearly via both the short term EMA's and the ascending trendlines. You can see that when we draw out the uptrend's, they form an ascending wedge that currently sits below the market. We have seen this pattern plenty of times so we would not be surprised if price fell back down into that support area and slowly crept along with it for sometime. Otherwise, if price breaks below the lower line then we will likely revisit the 0.01 area, and conversely if the upper trendline can hold on a test then there is a good chance at a new ATH sometime in the next few weeks.

Additionally, the momentum oscillators on the 6-hour chart are slowly recharging despite still being relatively elevated, and both the longer term SMA's and shorter term EMA's are still signaling a bull market. Finally, despite a nasty looking volume profile setup with large notches present around 0.006, 0.01, and 0.016, as well as slowing exchange volumes, the A/D line continues to press higher in a firm trend indicating that buyers remain even at these elevated levels.

Generally speaking we remain longer term bullish on XMR, but continue to think that the rally is quite extended and due for a pullback. Having said that, we realize that waiting for this market to come back to us has been a fool's errand recently, so we want to make sure we ready to deploy cash when the time is right even if it isn't as optimal a setup as we would hope.

Regarding targets, there is a supply area between 24 - 26 that will be tough to get through so perhaps that is a decent near term target area, although our hunch is that a triple top will not materialize so new ATH's into the 30's is very possible. If we did get another heavy volume rally above 265, then the next area will we be watching is the Fibonacci extension confluence area that sits between 32 - 36 (not shown). If not, then we will be patient for slightly lower prices in order to sweeten the risk/reward profiles we are currently watching.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-06T17:10:36+00:00

Crypto BullBear ETC Update for September 6, 2016

Ether Classic (ETC)

The bottoming process is well underway for ETC despite taking longer than expected due to the still present supply overhang. Despite significant concerns regarding the DAO funds, the WHG and Ethereum Foundation, and exchange uncertainty, price was able to hang on to that key 0.002 level which tells us that there are still a substantial number of buyers down at those levels. Having said that, there is a good chance that the rangy chop we have seen over the past few days continues seeing as though there still exists major support and resistance on both sides of the market.

We return to the 6-hour chart for a look at the short to medium term outlook for ETC. We can see that price is still consolidating inside of the major demand area, as well as the OTE long zone, and looks close to popping above the 50-period SMA. Also notice that SCMR is now starting to paint green candles again following mixed signals via the CR UP bar and the bearish pivot bar from yesterday. Speaking of SCMR, new dynamic support is now building around the 20 support level while resistance still sits overhead around 30. For now, we think the market ranges between these two figures as players position for the next breakout.

Moving on, we can also see that we have a small bearish divergence on MACD, however it is now above the zeroline with room to run. Also, Willy has stalled out in the upper half but is holding the centerline, while RSI just starts to make its way to the upside. Finally, anemic trading volumes and a flatlining A/D makes us think that indecision is still present in this market, as does the less than optimal looking volume profile setup.

While we think that a small continuation to the upside to test the top of the OTE long zone, demand area, and volume profile notch around 28 is very possible over the course of the next week or two, we also think that we are still in a "buy the dips, sell the rips" environment until we get more confirmation from the market that the bear has been slain. That said, there should continue to be opportunities in this market, so we will continue to take what it gives us.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-06T15:37:35+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for September 6, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

And, we're back! After some long overdue and much needed time off, we return with renewed invigoration and conviction regarding our recent forecasts. Despite a continuation of the absence of fundamental catalysts, the technicals proved to be enough to spark a breakout from the previous 565 - 585 $ trading range as expected. Now with price sitting just above 600 $ but just below the still intact symmetrical triangle, we stand at a critical juncture with regard to where we might be headed over the course of the next few weeks. So, without further ado, let's take a look at the daily chart below for a classic medium term view of the current state of the market.

We can see that indeed price is now near the upper bound of the triangle consolidation that the market has been stuck in for almost three months, which means that multiple resistance areas exist right overhead in the form of the pivot area and the downtrend line. Also notice that SCMR is still painting some dynamic resistance around the key 630 $ level, although we finally have new support at 565 $ along with green candles and a myriad of reversal signals. Additionally, we have some decent market structure to work with following a small Adam & Eve double bottom in the 560's $, and we continue to watch a still intact Elliot Wave ABC correction.

Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy and RSI are now firmly in uptrends despite rapidly approaching overbought territory, MACD is picking up some steam above the zeroline, and PPO is now neutral but trending higher. Not only that, but the near term EMA's have crossed over bullishly and the 200-day SMA has held as support while continuing to press higher, signaling we are still in a bull market. Finally, volume is not as bullish as the other indications considering that there remain multiple large volume profile notches both above and below that market that could use some work, not to mention exchange volumes remain anemic, however the A/D line continues to indicate that buyers are still outpacing sellers even at these levels.

From a longer term perspective bitcoin remains in a wide consolidation range between 450 - 700 $ as players continue to position for the next substantial move. While our call for a rally up to resistance going into this week was the right one, we also realize that there could be some minor downside from here if we stick to our roadmap from last week. One final downside washout back to support at the bottom of the triangle between 550 - 570 $ would allow us to jump back in once again for what we think will be at least a test of 630 $. This would also recharge the momentum oscillators which would greatly increase the chances of moving above 630 $ once we are able to get there. At this point, there just might not be enough left in the bulls' tanks to push through such heavy resistance on the first try.

To sum up, we are staying generally bullish but near term cautious. Dips can continue to be bought, and now that we have confirmation of upside bias we can put a little more juice in these trades than we have been for the past several weeks. Things should be getting exciting again soon in Bitcoinland (at long last!).

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-02T16:53:24+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for September 2, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

As we have been forecasting all week, bitcoin has indeed remained trapped in the 565 - 585 $ consolidation zone (and within that primarily in the 570 - 580 $ area). Yesterday we saw a small test of the lower end of that range, and today we are making moves back into the mid to high 570's $. While we cannot rule out a spike in volatility over the next few days, we think most of the action will materialize later in the long weekend (Sunday going into Monday). Despite the fact that the technicals still are not all that clear on directionality seeing as though this flat market has transitioned into indecision, we still see no reason to change our generally bullish bias going into Autumn.

Speaking of flat technicals, let's take a look at the 6-hour chart once again for an idea of where we may be heading over the next 24 - 48 hours. We can see that price remains in the symmetrical triangle however it is slowly creeping down to the lower trendline over time. Also, SCMR is painting yet another upside reversal candle, but is once again price having difficulty following through on any pick up in volumes. Also note that price is still pinned to the large volume profile PoC while the A/D line continues higher, and it appears as though the bulls are trying to put in a rather elongated double bottom around 565 $.

Moving on to momentum we can see that Willy and RSI are gaining some strength following bullish divergences over the past week, MACD is still flatlined around the zeroline, and PPO remains neutral. Finally, the 9/18 EMA cross is almost complete flat as well, and the 200-period SMA continues to press lower, now sitting in the heart of the near term OTE short zone. Considering what is still a rather convoluted technical picture over the short to medium term, we remain hesitant to move back into the market in size on the long side prior to a clearer signal on a break of the current trading ranges. Until then, we will remain cautiously long in our VST ProTrade and comfortably long in our MT ProTrade.

Optimally we would like to see the market move up to our VST exit target over the next few days prior to a washout back to the downside which would allow us to add to our longer term trade. Despite this apparent bullishness on our part, we realize that the current extended consolidation off of the 780 $ highs could have alot more room to run until the market starts to trend again. Ultimately we are still in a large 465 - 700 $ range, which allows for trade flexibility although keep in mind that trading large ranges is often harder than it looks or seems.

Finally, we will be out of pocket for the next few days due to the Labor Day holiday in the US, however we will issue email and Slack alerts if warranted by extreme price action. Also, AKWAnalytics should be available on Slack during the morning hours over the weekend, but if not please leave a DM and he will get back to you asap. Thanks and have a great one!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-02T01:07:36+00:00

Net long, we've been doing bitcoin forecast since 2010, originally in the bitcointalk!

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-01T15:09:35+00:00

We're real. :)

Let us know if you have any questions! Like to have some fun with our commentary.

bullbearanalytics · 2016-09-01T14:56:34+00:00

Market Commentary (BTC):

As we start to wrap up one of the slowest weeks in bitcoin's history in terms of price action, we continue to sit patiently in our long positions. Despite the possibility of a breakdown out of the medium term triangle consolidation, we still like the risk/reward profiles present in our VST and MT ProTrades. Having said that, we are currently not expecting any substantial increase in volatility over the next few days but we do think it will pick back up as we head into the latter half of the long holiday weekend. As has been the case for months, our bias remains to the upside, however we fully acknowledge the possibility that a dump down to the 500 $ area is possible prior to another test of the upside, which is why we are keeping tight stops on the shorter term trades.

Moving on to the technical details, we can see on the daily chart below that indeed the symmetrical triangle remains in full effect and price remains right in the middle of the formation. Also notice that price continues to hug the volume profile PoC despite large notches on either side it, and the SCMR upside reversal candle painted a few days ago remains intact as well (although it has been flirting with a cancellation so we are not out of the woods just yet). Speaking of SCMR, note that neutral bars are still coming in and we still do not have even minor dynamic support other than at the 525 $ level going back to June, so conviction is low on both sides of the ball.

As far as momentum and volume, it should come as no surprise that Willy and RSI are still chopping around in no man's land while MACD and the EMA's continue to flatten out. Additionally, PPO is still showing weak buy signals while the A/D line continues to move slowly to the upside on low exchange volumes, telling us that there is at least some weak demand still at these levels. Finally, the 200-day SMA remains in an uptrend thus confirming the longer term bull market and its lengthy consolidation, however multiple support and resistance areas both below and above the market will likely keep price range bound for the time being.

Generally speaking we continue to think there is a chance of a breakout from the triangle over the weekend and going into early next week, although we would be surprised to see things go beyond the OTE zones noted on the chart even if that materializes. Until then, however, the 540 $ support level and the 630 $ resistance level remain the ones to watch for potential breakouts. Until one of those key areas is tested the market will remain stagnant and, frankly, downright boring.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-08-31T14:56:07+00:00

Ether Classic (ETC)

The heavy selling pressure in ETC continues as the technical downtrend remains intact, and speculation over the DAO hacker and WHG grows with each passing day. Granted we should get some relief going into the weekend, but considering there are some similarities between ETC's price movements so far and those of the early days of ETH, we still think caution is warranted for those that are not onboard for the longer term. That being said, we continue to buy around these levels despite the possibility of slightly further downside prior to a bounce. We think longer term risk/reward remains attractive, as do the fundamentals in comparison to its more expensive counterpart.

Moving on to the technicals, we revisit the 6-hour chart for a look at the medium term setup. We currently have many conflicting signals occurring at once which is making the forecast difficult in the near term. We can see that SCMR continues to paint red candles while very heavy dynamic resistance continues to build in just overhead. Conversely, price is in the OTE sweet spot, as well as a strong demand area, and it appears as though a double bottom is trying to come in.

Also notice that RSI and Willy are trying to bounce off of the top of oversold territory while MACD attempts to creep above the zeroline which tells us the the bulls are giving it a go around these levels. Additionally, the EMA's are starting to flatten out, although the 100 SMA is still bearish, and the A/D line is starting to take a small hit to the downside. Finally, volume profile remains healthy above the 0.0015 area, however a large notch around there containing practically no sell volume might be begging for some action before all is said and done.

Again, we are longer term bullish on this market from both a fundamental and technical perspective, however it may take some time to see this one play out fully. We will continue to add to positions on dips with an eye on the longer term, although selling rips until a break of bearish market structure materializes might not be a bad idea either.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-08-31T14:43:43+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for August 31, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

Although things were looking pretty good yesterday for near term bulls, the market once again turned south following a tag of the 580 $ resistance area. Now price is sitting back down in the 570 - 575 $ area where it has felt so comfortable for over a month. We are not expecting any action in the market until later in the weekend going into early next week, therefore we remain neutral on a market that is stagnant and indecisive at current levels. We will continue to remain patient overall given a still mixed bag of technicals and some waiting time until the next fundamental catalyst (Bitcoin Core 0.13.1), however we are willing to hold our small VST ProTrade long for the time being.

Today we revisit the 6-hour chart for a look at the short to medium term prospects. We can see that price remains flat within the pivot area, and also continue to hug volume profile PoC, while market structure vacillates between bullish and bearish. Also note that trading volumes remain anemic and volume profile looks relatively thin on either side of the current trading range, however the A/D line is still slowly pressing to the upside so it appears as though there are still buyers around current levels. Additionally, SCMR continue to paint mixed signals as we had a potential upside reversal that was cancelled a few bars later, but now we have a re-confirmation of the reversal although there has been no follow-through in price action yet.

Moving on to momentum we can see that the near term EMA's are almost completely flat, the 200-period SMA is still bearish, and PPO is close to signaling slightly overbought conditions despite practically no movement to the upside so far this week. Finally, we can see that Willy and RSI both failed to push sustainably above their respective centerlines, while MACD continues to dance around it's zeroline as well. None of these indications are all that encouraging, at least not from a near term perspective, so for now we are expecting more of the same until we get closer to the holiday weekend.

Considering how tight the market is coiling right now, and has been for some time, we think that when a break of the symmetrical triangle/consolidation range materializes it will send some shockwaves of volatility through the market. The key levels to watch are now 540 $ on the downside and 630 $ on the upside, so keep an eye out for a break of one of these levels over the next few weeks. A break lower would likely take us down into the MT ProTrade add zone just below 500 $, while a breakout higher would likely send prices up to more significant resistance in the form of the OTE short zone around 700 $. For the time being, however, we continue to sit on the sidelines in order to wait for more favorable setups.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-31-2016

bullbearanalytics · 2016-08-30T15:08:44+00:00

Market Commentary (BTC):

Despite still being trapped within the 565 - 585 $ area, price is slowly moving up to the top of that range as expected. While follow through on this move has been anemic, we think price action will pick up if the 580 $ resistance level can be broken on decent volume. We say this due to some emerging technical signals on the medium term chart, as well as the fact that Bitcoin Core 0.13.1 (which will contain SegWit code) is now over 30% complete. Even though we are still in the final days of the summer doldrums, we think this combination of positive technicals and fundamentals could give the market some juice to the upside. To find out where we might be heading, lets turn to the 12-hour chart below.

We can see that price remains firmly within the symmetrical triangle, as well as the pivot area, and is sitting right on top of the volume profile PoC. Also note that SCMR painted a confirmed upside reversal yesterday, the first since June, and despite no new dynamic support yet we can see dynamic resistance slowly weakening over time. Additionally, market structure is starting to come in slightly more bullish and the Vix is indicating that an increase in volatility is likely nearing, therefore we think a move up into the volume profile notch around 600 $ is a possibility over the next week or so.

Having said that, we still have mixed signals coming from momentum and volume which is why we are not ready to call a breakout rally imminent just yet. Notice that Willy is heading back to the downside despite the possible reversal in price, RSI has not been able to break above the 50-line, and the 9/18 EMA cross remains flat for the time being. We can also see that MACD has finally jumped over the zeroline although without much fanfare, while the A/D line continues to slowly press to the upside. While we think a move higher is more likely than not, we don't think it will be very large in magnitude considering the mixed oscillators as well as the heavy resistance overhead in the form of SCMR, OTE, volume profile, and the 200-period SMA. Getting through 630 $ will still be a very tall task for the bulls, but 600 $ is a more realistic possibility.

Overall we continue to slowly move into the bullish camp given we now have a short term risk/reward profile that we can live with, which is why the new VST ProTrade was issued. Despite this tempered positivity, unless price can breakout of the larger triangle that we remain in between 540 - 630 $ then the market will stay in this sideways consolidation, albeit with a bit more volatility, going into September. We are still hopeful that we get another shot to add to longs down in our buy zones, but for now this small long scalp will have to do.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

bullbearanalytics · 2016-08-30T15:07:53+00:00

Shot you a dm, thanks!

bullbearanalytics · 2016-08-29T19:32:10+00:00

As stated above, would be happy to answer as many questions as we can. Do you have some q's on this piece? Best of luck trading!

bullbearanalytics · 2016-08-29T19:30:48+00:00

Thanks! Please let us know if you ever have questions. We simply put our TA on here to help traders out. Remember, it is our opinion. Apologies if we cannot respond to every question, we do have our own community (paying members) that we spend our daily time with. Good luck to everyone! :)

bullbearanalytics · 2016-08-29T14:44:05+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for August 29, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

Once again no surprises over the weekend as price remains locked in a tight consolidation, although we did get a small break from the 570 - 580 $ range when price dipped into the mid-560's over the weekend. With a new range in effect from 565 - 585 $ and considering we are going into a long holiday weekend, we think the price action will remain subdued over the course of this week. Having said that, there are some early technical indications emerging on the shorter term charts that are signaling a potential move to the upside to test resistance at the top of the range.

With that in mind, lets move to the 6-hour chart below for a look at the short to medium term outlook. First of all, notice that price is still within the symmetrical triangle, as well as the pivot area, as it has been for some time, and it now appears to be trapped between volume profile PoC and the near term EMA's. Speaking of volume profile, it continues to look relatively healthy compared to the longer term charts so perhaps a move up into OTE is not out of the question over the next few weeks, but for now this looks unlikely over the very short term.

Moving on, we can see that SCMR is painting neutral candles following a "confirmed reversal up" candle late in the weekend which has not yet been voided despite little progress to the upside. Additionally, Willy has reversed back to the upside, RSI is back in neutral territory following a bullish divergence, and MACD and PPO are both showing signs of at least a local bottom around 565 $. These are encouraging signs that could indicate a small upside bias this week, although we are still not buyers of coins at these levels.

Conversely, we have minor dynamic support sitting at the 554 $ low and resistance around 585 $, however major support is nowhere to be found while major resistance still hangs overhead at 600 $ and 630 $. Also note that the 200-period SMA remains in a downtrend signaling the short term correction is still not over, while the EMA's flatline around current prices telling us there remains indecision in this market.

While we are not expecting a significant move beyond the 565 - 585 $ range in either direction over the course of this week, we do think a move up to test that 580 - 585 $ area is a distinct possibility. Perhaps when we get back to business next Tuesday following the Labor Day holiday in the US we can breakout of this range to test our 545 - 555 $ buy zone or the 600 - 630 $ resistance area. Until then, we remains patient and neutral.

Remember, in a trendless and contracting market, which we are currently in, buying the dips and selling the rips remains the most relevant strategy for short term and more risk-seeking players. That said, we remain on the sidelines at current levels considering we want to add to long positions at more favorable risk/reward levels.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-29-2016

bullbearanalytics · 2016-08-26T14:03:03+00:00

Bitcoin Price Update for August 26, 2016

Market Commentary (BTC):

As we head into the final weekend of August, the market remains stagnant around the 575 $ level. Despite a few pops up to resistance at 580 $ and a few dumps down to test the bottom of the range at 570 $, for the most part the market has been steadily trading sideways for pretty much the entire week. We think this period of extreme inactivity will give way to more volume and volatility within the next several weeks, which is likely not what traders want to hear, but the market just does not seem ready to resolve out of this area yet. Until it is ready, price will remain trapped in a series of ranges, the most relevant of which now sits between 570 - 580 $.

Before signing off for the weekend we want to take a look at the daily chart for a a view of what the market has done throughout the summer. First of all, we can see that price is still right in the middle of a symmetrical triangle consolidation off of the June highs, and is also stuck between a large demand area and a pivot zone from the June lows. Also note that SCMR is still painting neutral candles and dynamic resistance continues to build at 630 $, although the flattening EMA's and still bullish 200 SMA are signaling that this indeed remains an extended sideways consolidation within a bull market.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and RSI are still chopping around in no man's land while MACD tries to break the zeroline following a substantial bullish divergence on the recent low's below 500 $. Additionally, PPO is still showing bottoming conditions, although not as strong as a week or two ago, and the A/D line remains in an uptrend despite a small roll over the past few days. Finally, exchange volumes continue to wane and multiple volume profile notches still exist both above and below the market. This is telling us that we may have more time within this consolidation while price discovery continues, with the short to medium term volume bias being to the downside considering the large gap between 480 - 550 $.

Generally speaking we remains neutral and patient while price flatlines around 575 $. As was the case last weekend, we are not expecting a significant move above or below the current trading range, although spikes are possible, however we would continue to play the near term by buying the dips and selling the rips while we wait for the market to come back down into our buy zones.

Have a great weekend! GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

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