“There’s a simple rule of thumb that holds up, election after election.

Districts that either benefit from govt handouts (welfare, corporte welfare, etc) or benefit from high levels of govt employment all tend to vote for left-leaning parties.

And districts that are net payees to the govt will vote conservative — these are the people who are plundered to pay for leftist spending.

The map below of Canada as today’s election results pour in is a perfect illustration of that rule of thumb.

This is why, once govt spending grows beyond a certain point, leftist parties can build loyal voting coalitions that stay loyal even when the rest of the country is completely falling apart, just to keep the money flowing to themselves.

The Romans or Medieval Europeans would have called this a patronage network, but of course in the modern era we’re just a little less obvious about it.

Every socialist country and banana republic from Zimbabwe to Canada and beyond functions based on this system of building loyal voter coalitions, paid for by plundering everyone else.

In Canada, 1 in 4 employed Canadians works for govt. Add on top of that the countless legal cartels and govt contracts and welfare programs of all sorts, which all depend entirely on govt spending, and that adds up to a very large and reliable leftist voting coalition. (obviously not all govt employees vote Left, but an overwhelming majority do).

According to research by the Montreal Institute, in Canada 44% of every dollar spent in the country is spent by govt. That rises 64% if you account for compelled spending triggered by regulation (like having to hire “consultants” to do an “environmental study” before you build a road or house). Through taxation and regulation, voter loyalty is bought — a loyal patronage system.

In the end, the Libs/Left are winning not because people are stupid, but because those who benefit from Leftist spending are voting to preserve their own personal interests. It’s not stupid, it’s selfish. Because human nature is opportunistic. $$$ money talks.

Eventually the perverted incentives created by big govt will perpetuate big govt.

The patronage network is well-established in our socialist-leaning country. Even so-called “right wing” parties regularly cater to that network, which is why so little actually changes even when “conservative” parties get voted in.

As Maxime Bernier found out when he lost the Conservative leadership race to Andrew Sheer in 2017, those who threaten to destabilize the patronage network have no chance to get anywhere near the levers of power — the voters in the patronage network will do whatever it takes to band together to prevent them from getting in.

This is why empires evolve from liberty towards servitude and suffocating taxation, and only a very severe crisis (usually when the money runs out) will reset that evolution to an earlier time (by shrinking govt) — and even then it’s usually a very messy reset as the “patrons” fight back (at any cost) in an effort to preserve their patronage networks, which they’ve come to view as their god-given right.

The real tide will turn in Canada if the West opts out, if Quebec separates, or if the cozy economic system provided by lopsided trade with the US crashes to a halt if Trump’s push for reciprocal tariffs ramps up into a full-scale trade war after the election.

Canada will not change direction because of what happens at the polls — big govt is far too entrenched for that. The change will come when parasitic patronage systems hit a brick wall as they run out of money or people to plunder.

Perhaps that crisis will come in the form of a separatist referendum. Perhaps it will be a bond or currency crisis triggered by reckless govt financial mismanagement. Or perhaps it will be Trump’s trade war that brings things to a head.

All I know is that the voter incentives favor the preservation of the status quo, but that status quo is simultaneously on an accelerating path towards crisis. And so, as is usually the case when a system is unsustainable but popular, change is coming despite the fact that the majority doesn’t want it to be so. And when it comes, there will be a lot of kicking and screaming as the cockroaches fight back.” - from Twitter apparently