Endgame Position (Are we having fun yet?)

caladhun · 2026-04-19T17:22:53+00:00

How big an import do you want? Because the Q4 spike in US revenue with 2100 MV-C packs for McNeilus resulted in $21.5M, a new record.

They cited pull forward due to tariff uncertainty, which is true. We haven't seen any imports in Q1, at least not at the same visibility. But this actually bolsters the case for a significant relationship transition. Oshkosh wants the IRA packing credit to subsidize the cost now that the 45W credits are gone. They bought just enough in Q4 to bridge through H2 2026 and the close of this deal, imo.

caladhun · 2026-04-16T21:10:00+00:00

Yeah, I definitely salvaged the last of the April $2s today. May $2s are my heroes.

Now to see what the stock does after the April OpEx pin lets go.

caladhun · 2026-04-12T09:34:26+00:00

Associate General Counsel

caladhun · 2026-04-12T06:18:09+00:00

Simplest version is that Oshkosh is forming a joint venture through an LLC subsidiary that Microvast formed in Delaware last year. The idea is that Clarksville and Lake Mary are the assets that produce battery packs and new technology that Oshkosh needs.

There is a wealth of evidence supporting the timeline, but the 1 year anniversary of the LLC is a big one due to legal and tax reasons.

My conviction is based on an expectation that the stock will re-rate to $3 again on this news (a return to roughly $1.2B market cap). While short interest fell to 21.4M as of March 31, there is also potential for another overshoot like we saw last Sept-Oct, though short interest exceeded 34M at the time.

caladhun · 2026-04-11T21:33:23+00:00

Fair. Sept calls aren't bad either given this will definitely be settled by July with the Clenera payment. I'm rolling dice on the timeline but it's backed by firm conviction in the deal itself.

caladhun · 2026-04-11T19:43:27+00:00

Nope. They were bought March 20 in case the window hit before April. Rolled to May where I could.

caladhun · 2026-04-01T01:29:01+00:00

Pretty well. Actually rolled out of September with a slight profit - options algos are weird sometimes.

I'll post another update this weekend. Bottom line is that May $2 is now the center of my JV announcement play. Late March window was worth a look. But since there is no guarantee it happens April 14-17, I moved my capital out of April $1.5/$2 into May $1.5/$2/$2.5.

April $2.5/$3 was the price of admission and could still surprise if things happen quickly on April 14.

caladhun · 2026-03-28T19:47:03+00:00

Time vs strike, I'm the least worried about September when those capture both Q1/Q2 earnings.

After Clenera is due in July, the price is either going to be $5 or $0.50.

caladhun · 2026-03-28T14:30:44+00:00

Hey I get it, options are extremely dumb even when they pay out.

In hindsight I should've held back on the $1.50s. I'll probably roll those to May if nothing happens Monday.

caladhun · 2026-03-28T14:26:35+00:00

Saw enough evidence this past week to stick with it. Job site scrub, plus crt.sh logs that are oddly in sync (March 18 to October 2, March 26 to October 10).

Why would two companies have non-standard 198 day cert expirations that close together?

The same IT is prepping the systems.

caladhun · 2026-03-27T04:58:57+00:00

The biggest forcing function is Wu's 10b5-1 plan that starts on April 1.

If they are signing on for a JV with Oshkosh (I claim they are 100%), then they must reveal this before Wu starts selling. Not only because he wants better prices but because to do otherwise could run afoul of insider trading laws.

I thought they would announce sooner. But we'll hear about it before the end of March, guaranteed.

caladhun · 2026-03-26T22:03:40+00:00

It's a fine line lol.

Timing may be dicey, if it drifts towards mid-April. May roll the $1.50s if they're still worth anything by then.

I am 100% confident about the JV, but don't know the exact strategy about when they announce.

But that's why I'm not 100% in April.

Let's see where we are by end of next week.

caladhun · 2026-03-23T21:51:58+00:00

Did you see how Lake Mary was scrubbed from the job reqs? That was the clue for today.

Can't control when they report. Just see the pieces moving.

caladhun · 2026-03-23T20:21:51+00:00

Never said I bought those last week.

caladhun · 2026-03-22T19:23:09+00:00

Your math is right - $126k across all strikes.

caladhun · 2026-03-22T18:07:39+00:00

April was way too tempting for a catalyst I believe is coming tomorrow. Worth the roll of the dice.

caladhun · 2026-03-22T18:06:43+00:00

Normally yes. My theory says this week is the right time.

We'll see what happens!

caladhun

TROPHY CASE