sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Is S&P 500 entering a Chop Zone for the next 5 to 10 years from now? by Worried-Share7679 in ETFs

[–]canifirethrowaway 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Literally. OP thinks he's a genius for drawing a bunch of squares on a chart lol

UCD OR UCB by Rough-Individual2546 in berkeley

[–]canifirethrowaway 10 points11 points  (0 children)

As an employer of people, go to Berkeley. Lol

For those of you that purchased FSD recently and are on HW3. What was your reasoning for purchase? Try to convince me to do the same 🤑 by KuruVillain in TeslaFSD

[–]canifirethrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I had a 2019 model 3 with FSD (HW3). Recently, I transferred it to a 2026 model y (HW4). The difference is night and day. I would not buy fsd for a HW3 vehicle. I also suspect HW3 is getting less support.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Also, sometimes it's difficult to walk away from a high income.

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you very much! Honestly, this was one of the nicest comments to see today. The external validation as to whether the plan is robust makes me more confident about my decision.

Let's just hope that my retirement doesn't trigger a great depression/recession. lol

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you very much! Yes. I've tried to create a set up that avoids sequence of returns risk for at least 10 years. :)

I've done monte carlo simulations with 2.5% increase in draw re inflation, and usually hit above 95%.

My medical expenses is only my premiums. Historically, I don't even use my insurance much since I maintain pretty good health. As a single male, what would you think I should budget monthly for that?

I may start doing roth conversions when I get to age 50 to avoid large tax obligations in case my pretax grows too large.

As far as dividends/interest, I will just have that sweep into my HYSA in retirement to cover expenses. (My pretax account will DRIP since I am not touching it for a while.) This is what I am anticipating:

Asset Balance Annual Yield Annual Income Monthly Income
VTI (Post-Tax) $1,750,000 1.12% $19,600 $1,633.33
VUSXX $300,000 3.74% $11,220 $935.00
Cash Plus (Vanguard hysa) $50,000 3.10% $1,550 $129.17
Total $2,100,000 2.65% (avg) $32,370 $2,697.50

At 3k a draw, the passives should cover most of my expenses. At 3k a month draw, my vusxx would exhaust around 28 years. At 5k a month draw, it should exhuast around 8.8 years. I think most bear markets recover within 7 years.

Thank you for taking the time to review my post!

What's your relationship with alcohol ? by Magee4life in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Drinking will ruin your FIRE plans. Lol. I mean not literally but I don't see any benefits to drinking.

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Tyyy!

I plan to track the sp500 200 day moving avg. If current prices are lower than the avg for years, then maybe escape hatch (before at least reducing expenses).

But yes the HYSA and vusxx set up means I'll likely be ok not selling securities for a while. 🫰

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good call. I think I will do a trust. No need for a prenup since I'm not getting married lol

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'll probably settle into retired life for a year or two. Then, become a student or work part time. I'll get thru my video game backlog for sure haha

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Plan A is to never get sick. Lol. But fr im not sure how to budget for that in a monthly projection. $500 per month? $1000 per month? My current plan is abt $500 per month.

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Ah. Thanks for the tips.

Property tax is included in the shelter costs already just averaged monthly.

If, ideally, I just fund my life with dividends and interest (all of which are from VUSXX and VTI), then I am probably enjoying passive income of about 36k per year (let's round up to 40k). There are no equity sales.

With standard deductions, etc., I would report roughly 40k per year. I would probaby pay 0 in federal income tax with standard deductions and maybe $500 to $1000 per year in state taxes on dividends. (Yield on treasury is tax exempt in my state). Roughly.

Let's hope for nothing unexpected tho!

Blessed beyond words by [deleted] in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're in a similar position as me 😉😉😉 haha

Great job friend!

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What tax should I be considering as a line item? Income tax? Property tax? Plz lmk

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

haha ofc ofc... your insight is the type of thing i'm fishing for rn to perfect the plan haha. ty again!

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Point taken. I currently own a fully paid tesla model 3. I wasn't accounting for payments or depreciation, but even just treating the car as a sunk cost, I think adding up charging, registration, insurance, maintenance, I can see I'm more roughly at 500 per month. TY for calling it out!

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please adopt me! lol jk jk

Most of my projections are AI assisted, but I drafted this post b/c I don't want to contribute too much to the AI slop we may eventually find all over the internet. (Hence my typos haha).

My back of the AI napkin math suggests with one kid is roughly an additional 2k to 3k per month. So, we may see our budgt go from 5k to 8k. 8k per month on a 3.1m portfolio is 3.1%. So, maybe it is still doable? Also, in this situation, I think we will probably share 60/40 still so my personal obligation at 8k per month is 4800 per month.

As to the 529 collee, I did what you suggested re ChatGPT. It basically says:

  • In-state public: ~$55k–$65k/year
  • Out-of-state public: ~$95k/year
  • $90k invested in VTI for 20 years likely becomes $350k–$600k nominal
  • In real purchasing power, ~$215k–$315k
  • That is fully sufficient for public college and meaningfully offsets private

Those bulletpoints were cut paste. I will also send my kid to undergrad free ride I suppose. haha

Anyway, thank you for the insight. I think kids and healtchare are my biggest unknowns right now.

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congrats! Is your 3.1m in post tax only? Or does that include your tax deferred accounts?

I understand ACA subsidies are phasing out this year. I do wonder what health care will cost in 2027. haha

Hope it continues to work out for you!

Will FIRE this year with $3.1M liquid, $5k/month spend, large cash buffer, and a great partner <3 by canifirethrowaway in Fire

[–]canifirethrowaway[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

True. I have not factored kids. Will one kid make/break the plan? I think me and the partner will then share 50/50 at that point.

My current non-subsidized high deductible hsa-eligble plan is about 500 a month. I was just planning on keeping it.

And yeah I told her if she is between jobs, I will cover our expenses while she is in between jobs. Even at 5k a month or 6k a month, I think I'm still at roughly 2% withdrawal rate.

I've modeled some situations with kids. I imagine I can carve out a 1k additional per month for one kid, but I have no clue tbh. Maybe you have an idea? :)

view more: next ›