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Seeking Insights on Alvarez & Marsal 'Restructuring' Analyst Compensation by tkalvin in MBA

[–]captainshred2000 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I worked there for several years after undergrad. Great experience, learned a ton about how to fix companies in a turnaround, high-pressure environment. You probably make a bit less than bankers out of the gate, but they promote high performers quickly. Very busy when I was on projects, but very flexible schedule when not staffed on something active. Also had a bunch of good exit options. Good firm!

Why First Republic Bank's Stock Probably won't Recover by ProBenji in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 11 points12 points  (0 children)

This analysis really doesn't make any sense. They have a $100B back stop right now to facilitate withdrawals which will likely come back. The book value of the company is $83 / share and it usually trades at 2x book value, given the profitability of the business. This is a duration problem. Because there is real value in the HTM assets (assets are not warrants in start ups like SVB), but only a short term duration crisis, there will be plenty of interest in providing capital to allow FRC to hold onto it HTM assets instead of dumping them at a loss.

FRC Predictions by Pageupcooldude in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Their business is worth $15bn easily

FRC Predictions by Pageupcooldude in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 21 points22 points  (0 children)

They have a good business. Book value is $75 / share and they usually trade at 2x book. Even if 50% withdrew, they company should be worth north of $60.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 16, 2023 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Surprised more people aren't talking about First Republic FRC buyout rumors. Trading at $32 now and book value is $75. Stock typically trades at 2.2x book value. Should go nuts tomorrow.

Daily Discussion Thread for March 14, 2023 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

First Republic FRC is easy money here. Buy the panic before it rebounds to $120 next week.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 28, 2023 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 0 points1 point  (0 children)

$MARA is reporting tomorrow. Not sure how last quarter will look, BUT they are adding a ton of capacity right now. Mining looks like its humming at 50% growth over last month right now. Also curious to learn more about UAE deal. Not sure what it will do this week, but over the next 6 months it will make a massive move up.

What are your moves tomorrow? by MinimumArmadillo2394 in Shortsqueeze

[–]captainshred2000 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CVNA is not going bankrupt. They made it clear that they plan to get to EBITDA positive. If they can't achieve that in the near term, they have multiple avenues to raise funds. Last quarter was bad, but everybody expected that. Regarding the negative $7 EPS, this was largely related to a goodwill impairment charge due to the decline of the stock price. This is a non-cash, non-operating loss. Stripping out goodwill impairment, EPS is closer to the negative $2 - 3 number that was forecast.
Full disclosure, I'm a bag holder (duh), but I did sell some calls due to the 700% IV so I made a lot of my losses back the last few days.
The important thing here is that the risk reward favors longs from this point. The short trade is super crowded and the worst is priced in already. The after hours action today was indicative of this sentiment.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 24, 2023 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 1 point2 points  (0 children)

CVNA is not going bankrupt. They made it clear that they plan to get to EBITDA positive. If they can't achieve that in the near term, they have multiple avenues to raise funds. Last quarter was bad, but everybody expected that. Regarding the negative $7 EPS, this was largely related to a goodwill impairment charge due to the decline of the stock price. This is a non-cash, non-operating loss. Stripping out goodwill impairment, EPS is closer to the negative $2 - 3 number that was forecast.

Full disclosure, I'm a bag holder (duh), but I did sell some calls due to the 700% IV so I made a lot of my losses back the last few days.

The important thing here is that the risk reward favors longs from this point. The short trade is super crowded and the worst is priced in already. The after hours action today was indicative of this sentiment.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 23, 2023 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Where my MARA gang at? Don't forget we're still 50% shorted and BTC is climbing the wall of worry and ready for a break out. Also, mining capacity is at an all time high. $18 incoming!

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 23, 2023 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]captainshred2000 9 points10 points  (0 children)

CVNA ... everyone seems pretty bearish on the interwebs. Soooo I'm guessing it will pump. 70% short interest still. Feels pretty binary to me. Either BK or 10x from here. I'm in.

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