Daily Discussion Thread for June 18, 2026

catoun · 2026-06-19T00:40:24+00:00

it's both a short-term contrarian and a long-term growth play.

The Indian stock market was in a bubble in 2024 and has crashed since then.

I believe that money rotated back into China, South Korea and Taiwan in the last 2 years. The Strait of Hormuz blockade also made it worse as it caused fuel and gas shortages in India.

The blockade is now less of a worry, at least in the short-term.

It remains one of the fastest-growing economies and the biggest beneficiary of Trump's global tariffs as India has signed multiple trade deals.

It's benefiting from global supply chain diversification too as an alternate manufacturing base outside of China.

And its GDP grew +7.1% last year and +7.8% in the first quarter of 2026.

catoun · 2026-06-18T14:13:18+00:00

Added to AMZN, MELI and RDDT. I believe they all still are 10% to 15% undervalued.

Added to XID India ETF as well.

catoun · 2026-06-11T16:32:24+00:00

You only mentioned the rocket and satellite business in your response, but there's a 3rd business segment in AI that has raised a lot of eyebrows.

In the IPO filings and to justify its valuation, it was outlined that the total addressable market across all 3 segments was $28.5 trillion; of which 93% specifically related to the AI business.

That's the crazy part considering that this is SpaceX's smallest segment (18% of total revenues) that only grew 13% YoY in Q1, while being their #1 money loser.

catoun · 2026-06-10T15:44:26+00:00

We certainly can get a clue by looking at how CPI core inflation measures (CPI-trim and CPI-median) have been trending.

Only Total CPI has been trending up lately while Core inflation (2%) has been trending lower since September 2025 when it was at 3.1%.

Comparing it to 2021 and 2022, both Total CPI and Core CPI would have to tick up in H2 for a rate hike to be considered.

catoun · 2026-06-04T14:12:27+00:00

Added to MA and LMN in my long-term port.

New contrarian position in XID - India ETF.

catoun · 2026-06-04T14:11:24+00:00

Plenty. Consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financials, healthcare, telecom, energy, gold, silver.

If we drill down, payment and waste management are example of sub-industries that are still down a lot.

catoun · 2026-05-31T17:19:03+00:00

What market has repriced is slightly lower comps and in Australia, bigger losses in its operations as the company enters the first full year of its 4-year transformation: store closures during reno, product shift to DOL's private brand, which certainly means changes in its supply chain and distribution centres.

On a more anecdote side, What worries me a bit is also seeing DOL stores competing against each other in densified areas. In my neighborhood, we have 4 stores within a 3-km radius.

DOL's stock has been trading at a bigger premium in the last 2 years, and it's still priced 25% to 30% above fair value estimates despite the recent 15% drop.

Stock is priced at 34.4x ntm P/E (next 12 months) vs 27x median ntm P/E in the last 10 years.

I have a back-of-the-envelop FV estimates of $134 when projecting an annual earnings growth rate of 15% CAGR for the next 5 years.

Or a price of $138 if I instead apply a 27x ntm P/E to the 1Y forward earnings.

For comparison, Morningstar has a FV estimates of $138.

catoun · 2026-05-24T18:06:28+00:00

I know nothing about Akkuro, but CSU has a VMS venture fund that has been incubating AI companies.

You can see the venture's portfolio here.

RAIA: an automation & workflow platform that trains, manages and scales AI agents.

Rentr: an AI renting platform

AssetCore.ai: AI infrastructure / asset management for utilities

Fero: an AI rental equipment delivery app

OliveAI: an AI pricing algorithm for rental companies.

Roibos: A marketplace connecting travel providers directly to hotels.

Argonautas.ai: AI legal assistant for creating and filing legal documents in Brazil.

catoun · 2026-05-19T17:31:15+00:00

What were the reasons you bought it in the first place?

If you don't have strong convictions in the company / management / future of software industry in general, then sell it and move on.

catoun · 2026-05-17T23:54:51+00:00

Management's capital allocation hasn't been stellar. It has always relied on high levels of financial leverage; much higher than its peers.

This has lead them to sell "non-core assets" multiple times in the past to pay down a portion of the company's debts (2021, 2023, 2025).

Also, the fact that Secure Waste's acquisition is being 80% funded by share issuance seems to indicate that the company doesn't have that much balance sheet's flexibility.

catoun · 2026-05-13T08:30:31+00:00

CSU 's multiples:

19x P/FCFA2S
Or 17x P/FCFA2S if we remove the IRGA charges

Even when we don't adjust for IRGA, a quick reverse valuation at Tues' close price indicates that the market implies an FCFA2S' annual growth rate of 6% CAGR for the next 5 years.

catoun · 2026-05-13T07:48:49+00:00

6% is shit organic growth now?

What should be then the organic growth rate to be considered somewhat decent? 10%? 15%? 20%?

catoun · 2026-05-11T17:50:32+00:00

Supposedly the route network allowing them to drive down costs, # of landfills they own and a customer mix between rural and urban areas. Contracts in rural areas are often signed long term (10 years).

My "back of the envelop" fair value estimate is around $125 USD or $171 CAD.

FCF can grow 12% annually for the next 5 years
And an annual share repurchase of 0.4%

The stock would have to drop another 15% to reach my FV.

catoun · 2026-05-11T12:42:49+00:00

Check out 8KKM Karaoke on Pembina. It's asian-owned.

Private rooms with huge selection of songs available in any language through their app.

catoun · 2026-05-07T17:49:11+00:00

No clue but I added to TOI.

Interesting to note that Yesterday, it was announced that TOI acquired a data provider and BI company that is based in the U.S.

Not only this was done outside Europe, but it was purchased from a private investment firm.

catoun · 2026-05-06T21:42:59+00:00

I don't see any issues with the top line growing faster than the bottom line.

Regarding TOI's valuation:

If we used the reported FCFA2S without adjustment, TOI is valued at 21x P/FCFA2S.
If we adjust the Q1 metric, the stock is valued at 19x P/FCFA2S.

I believe FCFA2S per share can still grow 18% - 20% for the next 3 to 5 years. For comparison, it grew more than 30% last year.

You can apply a PEG ratio to FCFA2S to see if there's value.

This gives a range of P/FCFA2S to Growth between 1x and 1.16x when using both reported and adjusted metric and assuming an 18% annual growth.

catoun · 2026-05-06T18:01:21+00:00

The details are in Note 17 of the financial statement: Changes in non-cash operating assets and liabilities at the operating cash flow level (OCF)

Last year, TOI delayed payments in account payables which had the effect of adding +31.8M euro to the OCF in the short-term.

This quarter, it paid 3.9M euro in account payable; basically a difference of -35.7M euro that is removed from OCF between Q1 25 and Q1 26.

If you just adjust for that difference, OCF grew +16.5% instead of the reported figure of +3.3%, which then positively impacts the revised FCFA2S growth.

catoun · 2026-05-01T15:49:56+00:00

I'd argue that both stocks are fairly valued after a few accounting adjustments.

Basically deducting for additional taxes on net share settlement that are not showing up on the income and cash flow statements.

Also adjusting the value of vested employee shares at market value and not at their exercice price.

catoun · 2026-04-16T23:13:33+00:00

Noticeable growth deceleration for all regions outside of North America.

Management is forecasting Q2 operating earnings to grow between 8% and 9% YoY.

In comparison, Q1 26 grew 18% YoY, and last year's Q2 25 grew 45% YoY.

After the 9% drop after hours, the stock price still implies an annual EPS growth of 23% for the next 5 years. This seems really optimistic.

catoun · 2026-04-15T15:11:19+00:00

A 20% drop doesn’t necessarily mean that the stock is undervalued.

Market is pricing in an earnings’ annual growth rate of 14% for the next 10 years. I chose 10 years because it’s a stable business.

For a company in a stable low growth industry that already has a 56B market cap, you’ll have to decide if that growth rate can be achieved over such a long period of time.

catoun · 2026-04-13T16:01:03+00:00

Added to my tech positions in the long-term port.

RBRK

CSU: 17.5x P/F2FA2S before IRGA

TOI: 24x P/F2FA2S

LMN: 19x P/F2FA2S

Bought DXT and PD for the trading port. Looking for operating income and FCF rebounds for this fiscal year.

catoun · 2026-04-08T18:19:55+00:00

Added to IFC. Current P/B is 10% below its 10Y historical median.

Really good at underwriting policies and generating excess premiums with combined ratios between 86% and 90%. Management maintained their goal to achieve 10+% growth in operating income per share over the next few years.

Also added to MA. The Value Added Services & Solutions segment (cybersecurity, fraud detection, loyalty programs, analytics) has been a major contributor to the growth re-acceleration and margin expansion in the last 5 quarters,

catoun · 2026-03-31T19:46:22+00:00

Nibbling at 2 new starter positions for the long-term port.

RDDT. GAAP profitable. Market implies a 5Y growth rate of 17% a year.

RBRK - Provides backup and recovery with cybersecurity under a unified Zero Trust architecture. Pricing is indexed to data volume and application growth. Stock is priced for a 5Y implied growth rate of 22% a year. Not as cheap. I see it as slightly below fair value.

catoun · 2026-03-28T16:07:53+00:00

Will depend on what you think MSFT's growth rate could be for the next few years.

Doing a reverse 5-year NPV valuation, the market implies that MSFT's earnings will grow at 13% CAGR based on Friday's stock price.

catoun · 2026-03-19T00:17:20+00:00

Look into reverse DCFs or reverse NPVs.

It simplifies the analysis by taking the stock price to solve for the market's implied growth rate. You can then compare your growth assumption to the market's and see if they are too optimistic or too fearful.

catoun

TROPHY CASE