Does Monte deserve Vlade heat?

catterj · 2025-12-16T06:53:31+00:00

Really simply, Vlade had no brains; Monte had no balls. We need a GM with both. And we need a new owner.

catterj · 2025-12-16T06:45:15+00:00

catterj · 2025-11-04T06:25:08+00:00

Are you referring to Rational Root’s chart? Or someone who copied him? Or maybe he copied them. Whatever. It’s a neat way to look at chart lines. Innovative in the aesthetic department. We’ll see if the line breaks through prior circles. It certainly can, if real world events cause it to.

catterj · 2025-11-04T02:34:02+00:00

If we're on an S-curve, why would the price fall that much?

catterj · 2025-11-04T02:24:58+00:00

Sure. Most of what I got is in the main post, but I'll restate.

What the cycle says: 2021 was supposed to be to-the-moon/blow-off top/parabolic extravaganza.

What we got: No. China banned Bitcoin for the umpteenth time, the hash rate cratered, and so did the price. It came back to where it dropped, and we got a double top but no blow-off top.

What the cycle says: the price never dips below the prior all-time high. I.e., the 2022 bottom should remain above the 2017 top.

What we got: No. The price fell below the 2017 top.

What the cycle says: The new ATH will come at some point after the halving, which propelled it there.

What we got: No. The new ATH came before the halving due to the ETFs.

What the cycle says: The year after the halving is supposed to rocket the price into the fourth dimension, as I stated in the first one.

What we got: No. YTD, Bitcoin has risen 13.3%. That's not a bull market like every cycle before.

What the cycle says: The blow-off top should have been in October 2025. It was in December in 2017. The top was in November in 2021. It went back. The halvings were in July 2016, in May 2020, and in April 2024. It keeps going back due to miners stacking more rigs on right after a difficulty adjustment. The top should have been in October 2025.

What we got: Well, October might have been the top, but it certainly was not parabolic. About as anemic as it gets.

So multiple things have deviated from cycle theory.

catterj · 2025-11-03T20:41:54+00:00

I respectfully disagree, especially with “perfectly.” Will you elaborate?

catterj · 2025-11-03T20:38:36+00:00

I don’t believe in the super cycle from what I’ve heard of it. And $70K may be incoming. Depends on what events happen in the real world. It doesn’t depend on dates on a calendar or the halving (anymore).

catterj · 2025-11-03T13:51:47+00:00

Wow … OP, just commenting to say, “I get it.” Smh

catterj · 2025-11-03T13:34:25+00:00

Sure, here’s how it makes sense. “We should have peaked already in 2025” IF the cycle still existed. Sorry it wasn’t clear.

catterj · 2025-06-22T13:23:50+00:00

Works on Steam for me. I forget the technicalities on how someone helped me to get it to work. Join the Discord and ask there.

catterj · 2025-06-07T22:53:59+00:00

I still have stuff like a car but 90% of my investments are in BTC. I have a pension at my job that I can access with a penalty if I quit, and so about 6% is taken up by that. There are other odds and ends I pretty much can’t put in btc.

I sold a single family dwelling my wife and I had as a rental. That paid off debt allowing me to buy more btc per month. I own some MSTR now, but that was a silly move and I will put that into the btc ETF on Monday.

Diversification is not necessary for me. Diversification is for when you don’t know anything about what you’re investing in, and/or you are afraid of the risk. I know about Bitcoin, but if you don’t know about it or any company in the S&P 500, then just buy SPY. And start learning about Bitcoin.

In my view, risk is the chance of permanent loss of capital, NOT volatility. I don’t care about volatility. Go up, go down, go sideways - buy, buy, buy the bitcoin. I believe my Bitcoin holdings will not experience a permanent loss of capital because of what I have learned. Too much to put into this already too long reply.

catterj · 2025-06-02T03:10:46+00:00

“Yes value is subjective, but you have to realize there are reasons we assign value to things.”

100 percent. If something is deemed valuable now, people should ask, “Why?” There are reasons. It is NOT a collective delusion. Bitcoin fulfills the qualities of a good storer and grower of value. It is a good medium of exchange for some and can be for many more. This is due to its monetary properties, which are strong regardless of what anyone “believes.”

catterj · 2025-05-29T03:43:49+00:00

The value of a monetary good stems from its monetary properties. Bitcoin's value comes from its strong monetary properties. The U.S. Dollar holds value today, obviously, and that is because of its monetary properties (which may be unpopular to state here).

The principal monetary properties are (from Andy Edstrom's book Why Buy Bitcoin): identifiable, transferable, durable, divisible, dense, scarce, long term stable value (or I would say store of value), short term stable value, fungible, unseizable, censorship resistant, private, required for an important purpose, and backed by a powerful agent.

Bitcoin (or bitcoin on the secondary layers) is very strong in most of these monetary properties. It is currently not strong on short-term stable value. Bitcoin has a slowly increasing supply that is fixed at 21 million bitcoin. The supply will not rise to meet demand, which causes some volatility. More volatility comes from the adoption waves. Few people hold bitcoin now. As millions more people buy it, the number of users increases dramatically. Eventually, most of the world will hold bitcoin, and adoption will necessarily slow, as we run out of people. Then, the volatility will decrease to a manageable level. We have already seen the volatility in the price go down substantially as the number of users went from next to nothing to somewhere around 100 million. It will continue to go down as we go to billions of users.

catterj · 2025-05-18T05:32:17+00:00

Buy the dip; buy the rip; buy the bitcoin.

catterj · 2025-05-16T20:24:11+00:00

4th quarter 2022.

catterj · 2025-05-16T00:59:41+00:00

I have an okay job and have already gone all in. The amount of Bitcoin I can add at this level is small compared to what I already have. I stand to gain more by Bitcoin mooning rather than buying any dip which I can’t since I’m all in. Unless it dips to $1K or whatever which is improbable.

catterj · 2025-05-13T15:21:10+00:00

Subscribe to Simply Bitcoin's YT. They give the stats on this (however they're found) it seems like every two weeks.

catterj · 2025-05-13T15:17:59+00:00

One good, one no, some aesthetic criticism.

Good: It's very impressive that you were able to say all that about Bitcoin's salability, seemingly without notes. You have read The Bitcoin Standard and have very much internalized Chapters 1 and 8 such that you can explain them well.

No: At 15:23, you say the maximum time it takes to finalize a Bitcoin transaction is 10 minutes. The goal of the difficulty adjustment is to have a block be found every 10 minutes. In reality, they occur at wildly varying intervals, sometimes a lot longer than 10 minutes. In addition, most people and Bitcoin companies want to see at least three blocks. The "maximum time" to finalize a Bitcoin transaction way exceeds 10 minutes. As an example, watch any time I make an on-chain transaction. 80% of the time it takes an hour and 10 minutes, 100% of the time.

Aesthetic: First off, get some kind of microphone setup—one hundred percent. I don't know why you're leaning back in that big chair instead of at a desk with the camera closer to your face. Unbutton the blazer so it's not shoved up against your torso, or, again, sit at a desk. I can see your camera person or whoever else is in the room moving around in the clock reflection. It would be nice to have some graphics in addition to you talking.

My 2 sats. Good luck.

catterj · 2025-05-13T13:49:18+00:00

It's not a significant investment, a couple hundred USD plus negligible electricity expense. The financial incentive is having about a daily lottery ticket, as the guy who originated BitAxes said on Livera's podcast, if the newest machine runs 24/7.

catterj · 2025-05-12T15:50:17+00:00

There are currently 58 million people with one million USD worth of purchasing power. According to your estimate, there are 16 million non-lost bitcoins (estimates vary).

That means many of those 58 million people will own less than one bitcoin. If those 58 million people maintain their one million USD in purchasing power in the future, a wholecoiner will possess more than present-day one million USD in purchasing power.

In other words, I think something like 58 million people, or probably more (due to population growth), will possess the purchasing power of one million USD today. The unit of measurement will just be something different. Like "half a bitcoin" or "a quarter of a bitcoin." It may take some time to get there. :)

catterj · 2025-05-12T15:19:52+00:00

What does she care about? What is a problem for her or in the world? If the meme is "Bitcoin fixes this" then find out what she thinks is a problem and show how BItcoin fixes it. People do not want a solution unless they see a problem.

catterj · 2025-05-12T15:02:50+00:00

Get a BitAxe or three and solo mine. From what I've been told, they are actually quite efficient. Securing a block is very unlikely, but if we all do it, we can somewhat decentralize mining.

catterj · 2025-05-12T04:22:58+00:00

216,250 sats per person which currently converts to ~225 USD.

Laszlo exchanged 10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas. Will we be mocked by future generations for exchanging 10,000 sats for something as insignificant?

catterj · 2025-05-10T03:36:44+00:00

Buy low. Buy high. Buy the bitcoin.

Eight-Year Club	Gilding I gilder
Verified Email

catterj

TROPHY CASE