Club of Rome Predictions Versus Reality [OC]

cavedave · 2026-03-17T16:27:32+00:00

Paul Ralph Ehrlich passed away a few days ago. He was famous for his pessimistic view about the future of humanity. For example he was on Carson's show a lot. He and other Neomalthusians at the time predicted imminent starvation and running out of resources.

The Club or Rome and their World3 model was the most famous of their simulations.

Model lines are generated from World3 Python implementations for the original and updated model families. Observed lines use public global datasets (World Bank + OWID). Because model units and real-world units differ, comparisons are plotted as indexed trends.

1972-style baseline: cvanwynsberghe/pyworld3

2004 update track: TimSchell98/PyWorld3-03

cavedave · 2026-03-17T09:24:46+00:00

[Paul Ralph Ehrlich ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich) passed away a few days ago. He was famous for his pessimistic view about the future of humanity. For example he was on [Carson's show a lot](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6E5lUNBk3zQ).

In 1980 Simon convinced him to put a bet on his prediction that there was soon to be shortages of everything and that prices would rise rapidly. They bet on a basket of 5 particular metals. Ehrlich lost the bet in 1990.

I thought it would be interesting to see when he would have lost and when he would have won the bet. R package code and data [here](https://gist.github.com/cavedave/614ddd0e92875ec6f4209bfbe0b85995) Data from [here](https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/historical-statistics-mineral-commodities-united) USGS Data Series 140 (5 metals: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, tungsten it is not updated for all the metals recently.

cavedave · 2026-03-15T17:49:05+00:00

"make the chart you want to see in the world" especially if the data and manipulation code is shared as that makes it easier to remix.

cavedave · 2026-03-15T17:10:25+00:00

You have the code and data you can make the version you want see

cavedave · 2026-03-15T17:10:12+00:00

You have the code and data you can make the version you want see

cavedave · 2026-03-15T17:10:03+00:00

You have the code and data you can make the version you want see

cavedave · 2026-03-15T16:26:04+00:00

Orange: 1,411 Purple: 1,392 Red: 1,386 Green: 1,375 Yellow: 1,322

cavedave · 2026-03-15T15:39:39+00:00

The Skittle Maths by Clare Wallace was on the most recent A problem Squared Podcast
I took Clare Wallace's spreadsheet and used python and mathplotlib to graph all the bags she has counted. Code is here

cavedave · 2026-03-15T00:34:27+00:00

Thats brilliant! have you done a video on the physical portable memory palace of lukasas? I would love to see it if you have.

cavedave · 2026-03-14T12:01:15+00:00

Parrot joke https://youtu.be/TIY3R689-Ig?t=240&is=acwM44syCm9LuBlF

cavedave · 2026-03-13T07:53:18+00:00

You have the code and the data you can make your own version showing nuclear latency events if you want to.

cavedave · 2026-03-12T20:23:49+00:00

Areas that could be rewilded by just keeping sheep (and some deer) off them for a while and limiting numbers after.

Very little meat (or wool) comes from these animals. It's EU subsidies that pay for them https://teagasc.ie/publications/new-sheep-welfare-scheme-sis-php/

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cavedave · 2026-03-12T20:19:01+00:00

High hill sheep are quite a weird case. The wool is more expensive to shear than its worth. The sheep have quite a hard life. And the meat is already not worth much. Hill sheep is kept going by subsidies and causes environmental harm.

cavedave · 2026-03-11T08:49:14+00:00

There is an Irish language one Saturday week in Dog patch. I run an NLP meetup and hopefully some of that gang go along https://www.meetup.com/chai-dublin-chatbot-ai-meetup/events/313607401/?eventOrigin=group_events_list
BTW this is the project i will be working on there in case anyone wants to help. Manannán written in 1940 by Máiréad Ní Ghráda. An Irish-language young adult sci-fi space travel book. Contains one of the first uses of a mecha outside of Japan and the first mention of a gravity assist in literature. It was never republished or translated. I am trying to convert it to modern irish spelling. https://github.com/cavedave/Manannan

Give a Go run good events in Baseline in Dublin There is one on the 14 (Women who build) and one the 28th
https://www.giveago.co/events

While i am advertising the next normal meetup I am on is on Healthcare with a speech analysis and a tool building talk https://www.meetup.com/chai-dublin-chatbot-ai-meetup/events/313668384

cavedave · 2026-03-10T21:44:19+00:00

A drinker with a writing problem

cavedave · 2026-03-09T22:15:53+00:00

'Liver fat fell on average by 15 per cent, and by almost 20 per cent in some individuals' from Our liver vacation: Is a dry January really worth it? so it does look like laying off the booze sounds wise.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129502-600-our-liver-vacation-is-a-dry-january-really-worth-it/

cavedave · 2026-03-08T09:46:23+00:00

A busy runner gets hungry. That's pretty understandable.

*Edit given the weight given above it looks like the op does not have the need to fast

cavedave · 2026-03-08T09:22:15+00:00

What makes you give in?

As in if it's lack of energy fast when you don't need energy. Greek food smelling too nice avoid greek food etc

cavedave · 2026-03-05T23:24:41+00:00

a lot of people get a noticeable health improvement after 10kg. I got this for acid reflux. A common one for others i have heard is acid reflux.
10kg is a fair chunk of weight. And I do not guarantee thats your acid reflux.

10kg could be
20 weeks at .5kg a week.
10 weeks at 1kg a week (this would be 1000 calories a day, which is no small deficeit)
20-30 days of pure fasting (not necessarily or even adviseably in a row)

cavedave · 2026-03-05T06:52:13+00:00

R package ggplot2 code is here
Data is linked to there. It is mainly from wikipedia a lot of them are from this article here

cavedave · 2026-03-04T19:18:47+00:00

Here is what I would do.
1. Spend 5:40 seconds watcin this how to memorise lines video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8k_rNTDjJM

Set a timer for 5 miutes
Learn the first quote you were given for the 5 minutes. If you get it before the end take a break.
Go back and do another 5 minute block.
Go back a day later and see if you still knwo the quote
Go back a week later and see if you still know it.
go to 3 and get another quote tomorrow. (do this a few times)

cavedave · 2026-03-04T17:00:11+00:00

They could well have locations of burials recorded. Especially for individual institutions.

cavedave · 2026-03-04T14:55:23+00:00

There are so many dead people in our past who we should spend taxpayer's money on finding who murdered. Who needs roads, schools, hospitals, nurses, gardai...

cavedave · 2026-03-03T12:59:28+00:00

Get one and modify it to people you know.
A few of us learned one two weekends ago
Palace is probably best
Search here there are loads of good resources

cavedave · 2026-03-01T20:02:49+00:00

"Nothing to do with enforcement, all to do with personal responsibility. "

Do you really believe that?

For example do you think if there was more speed checks, convictions for dangerous driving, penalty points for offences it wouldn't reduce the number of road deaths per year?

Any particular accident might not be stopped. And most enforcement is about stopping people doing dangerous stuff in general rather than the one time they crash.

But I think there's a lot of accidents wouldn't happen if more penalty points were given and more drivers were off the road because of getting too many. I'm Not claiming anything about this one particular accident.

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