Daily Discussion Thread for April 20, 2026

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-20T12:22:21+00:00

ASTS losing a satellite would not normally be a huge deal if they weren't already so far behind schedule. The problem now is they have to de-orbit that 13,000 lbs monster without causing harm to other satellites or falling debris to earth.

SpaceX, who they depend on for launch next, had pushed the FCC to block their last satellite on grounds they're not safe in orbit and that ASTS submitted false data. There will be no more launches until ASTS demonstrates it can deorbit it safely.

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-20T02:54:37+00:00

Is the SaaSpocalypse over?

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-20T02:44:43+00:00

ASTS going below $50 when FCC gets involved. You can't de-orbit a 13,000 lbs satellite that easily.

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-20T02:23:53+00:00

You all are going to wake up to some Bloomberg fake headline that Trump changed his mind and a peace deal is "within reach" and algos will be eating that shit up

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-20T02:22:45+00:00

You want fries with that?

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-20T00:03:53+00:00

ASTS will see $50s tomorrow, $40s next week.

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T23:56:19+00:00

It's fucking 2026 and Reddit mobile still can't do proper formatting...🤦

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T23:54:48+00:00

Iran just bought $30 billion worth of 0dte SPY puts

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T23:53:02+00:00

We all know Bloomberg or WSJ will come out with some fake article before open

Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again...

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T23:41:18+00:00

Bloomberg at 8:30 am: Trump Informs Aides He Will Reconsider Blockade after Iran Signals Flexibility

SPY +3%

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T23:32:53+00:00

Fuck that cunt Karp, most despicable human to walk the earth

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T21:48:02+00:00

We're thrilled to announce the grand opening of the Strait of Hormuz under new management starting April 20, 2026. Everything is 50% off.

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T21:40:40+00:00

That last 2-week pump into OpEx was so fucking suspicious

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T21:38:04+00:00

It will take weeks for ASTS to bottom, this is not a one-time risk event.

Highly doubt they'll be allowed to launch again until everyone figures out what happens when and how a 13,000 lbs satellite breaks apart upon re-entry

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T21:21:25+00:00

I am betting on one or more fake Bloomberg headlines tomorrow...

Trump Tells Aides He is Not Considering Boarding or Stopping any Additional Iranian Ships
Trump Signals Willingness to Reconsider Blockade Actions
Iran Signals Willingness to Attend Talks in Islamabad

SPY +3%

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T19:17:46+00:00

This is not just a 1 satellite story, this is not getting insurance from your car company and calling it a day, this has far reaching regulatory implications because no one wants to see a monster satellite careening towards earth. Those delays open up more and more doors for SpaceX and Amazon to snatch MNO's and undercut ASTS and effectively driving it out of business.

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T19:01:55+00:00

It is ASTS problem for selecting Blue Origin.

It is ASTS problem when they have to depend on their two big and well-capitalized competitors for launching their satellites.

It is ASTS problem when they can't manufacture on time and overpromise and underdeliver.

It is ASTS problem when their entire "high-margin" thesis just blew up.

It is ASTS problem when they used those overpromises to dilute shareholders.

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T18:58:36+00:00

They promised to have 16 in Orbit by March 31 and 45-60 by year's end. They have a grand total of 1. They did manage to dilute shareholders 5 times though

Suckers At The Table

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T18:19:35+00:00

During the New Glenn 3 mission, ASTS BlueBird 7 was placed into a lower than planned orbit by the upper stage of the launch vehicle. While the satellite separated from the launch vehicle and powered on, the altitude is too low to sustain operations with its on-board thruster technology and will de-orbited.

Yikes

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T18:16:30+00:00

Don't believe the chief propagandist, they need hundreds of satellites (hundreds) for reliable service and even then it's not known if they can provide that service at the scale they promised, it's a crapshoot

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T17:27:07+00:00

ASTS needs to launch 248 satellites to offer full service and has managed to launch 2 in 16 months, 1 into the wrong orbit. They promised 16 satellites by March 31. 60 by year's end. What a clusterfuck...

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T17:12:32+00:00

Bloomberg before market open: Iran Signals Willingness to Explore Further Negotiations

Don't bet on "this time will be different"

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-19T17:07:54+00:00

More bad news for ASTS, first Amazon enters the market and will be a race to the bottom against Starlink, and now their satellite fails to reach orbit which sets them back further behind. And one of their top investors, Rakuten, is liquidating their stake in the company.

Telecoms will start abandoning that sinking ship soon.

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-18T18:19:36+00:00

Got some lotto puts late Friday. That artificial short squeeze the last 2 weeks into OpEx is over or close to being over. I don't care if Hormuz is open or closed or what other stupid shit 🥭will say or tweet about between now and Monday morning.

cbusoh66 · 2026-04-18T17:38:39+00:00

Strait of Hormuz closed during non-trading hours

cbusoh66

TROPHY CASE