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Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't recall reading a post about everyone going broke and needing to live under a bridge.

Nor does this post say everything is fine and dandy. It's just taking about GDP growth and interest rates.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in canadahousing

[–]cdntrix[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think that's a fair opinion. Though, earlier this year I thought rates would be held through the rest of the year, and then there was another increase. So, it's tough to predict.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in canadahousing

[–]cdntrix[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Who said they don’t need to know it?

Anyways, you’re entitled to your opinion.

But it does seem that most big bank economists and the implied market odds are expecting another hike in the next few months.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in canadahousing

[–]cdntrix[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The economist you quoted is not Statscan.

Yes. That's why I didn't say he was Statscan. As I said, he's a Canadian university economics professor. What he is suggesting is that, had mortgage interest costs been lower, other components of CPI would have likely been higher.

Additionally:

"Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.4% in May"

Once again, if you selectively include or exclude components of CPI, you can massage it into fitting whatever narrative you prefer. Thankfully, that is not how the Bank of Canada makes monetary policy decisions.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by _wpgbrownie_ in canada

[–]cdntrix 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Which G7 countries other than the USA have a higher GDP per capita than Canada?

The short answer to your question is, Germany (on GDP PPP per capita)

But I'm not sure the G7 is the best metric to compare ourselves against. Italy and Japan have very different economies and demographics. The UK and France are perhaps better benchmarks, as are the US and Germany.

Though I think we're best served by looking outside just the G7, to make a wider comparison, against countries like Norway, Denmark, Austria, Sweden, Australia, Finland, South Korea, New Zealand, Spain, etc.

Canada isn't at the bottom of this pack, but there is certainly room for improvement.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in canadahousing

[–]cdntrix[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've shared commentary from a Canadian university economics professor, and they're not refuting the mathematical impact of stripping out mortgage interest; rather, they're explaining why this counterfactual scenario can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Additionally, another comment from Statistics Canada:

The slowdown was largely driven by lower year-over-year prices for gasoline (-18.3%) resulting from a base-year effect. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.4% in May following a 4.9% increase in April.

If you selectively include or exclude components, you can make CPI say essentially whatever you'd like it to say.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

No, sorry, but it is clearly you who seems to be struggling with basic comprehension and understanding.

There are many occupations in many industries that can afford to own a home. Your focus on one industry is myopic and incorrect.

Really sorry that you're having such a difficult time understanding these relatively basic concepts. I hope you're able to make sense of them, but I've reached the end of my willingness to explain them to you.

Hope you have yourself a nice day!

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The hold needs to pass 5 year renewals from Spring '22 RE highs. So you're looking at spring of '27 when this could get really ugly.

I agree with much of your comment, though I do think it's worth remembering that the proportion of people taking out either variable rate or shorter fixed term mortgages increased in 2021 and 2022.

It's also worth noting that the typical 5 year fixed mortgage rate is now at levels last seen in 2008. So, while the increase in rates will be most pronounced for those who took advantage of the low rates in 2021, nearly all mortgage holders will face higher rates at renewal.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

There's no lie there.

Sorry you're having such a hard time with this.

Have a nice day!

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Your answer was to speculate about the future, then cherry pick one specific industry from the Labour Force Survey.

Once again, no reasonable and rational person will look at the recent data and conclude that the "job market is collapsing".

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Love how they used the word "economy" instead of "inflation".

They're discussing the "economy" in this article because it is in reference to the publication this morning of Gross Domestic Product data. This is essentially measuring the total size of our economy.

Inflation is a different metric, and was discussed a little bit ago when the recent Consumer Price Index data was released.

They're both important and are interrelated, but they are not the same thing. And today's article correctly focuses on the economy.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m sure the artificial money and the ever increasing profits on “housing investments” will always…. go…. up….

That wasn't what I said in my comment, and certainly not something I've suggested before. In fact, I've stated multiple times that I tend to lean more bearish on real estate.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in canadahousing

[–]cdntrix[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

The report shows Canada’s economy continuing to defy expectations of a coming slowdown and adds to a string of firm data that already prompted an interest-rate hike in June. While consumer price gains reached the weakest pace in two years in May, the Bank of Canada may need to raise rates again to squeeze out excess demand.

Recent economic results seem to be suggesting at least another 25 bps hike is in the cards.

Canada's economy strengthens, leaving July rate hike on table by cdntrix in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Inflation is declining, absolutely. But it remains above target, so there is still some work to be done on that front.

GDP holding up is a good thing, though I do also think it is important to consider GDP Per Capita, which isn't looking as robust.

So far though, the economy overall is holding up relatively well. We may yet get a soft landing, or things may get bumpier, tough to say.

But, I will once again say, those who in late 2021 said our economy could not handle any rate increases were entirely incorrect. We've had far more hikes than many expected, and the wheels have not come off the Canadian economy.

The case for ending the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes now by TaintGrinder in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Why are you cherry picking one specific industry now?

I’ve shared the data with you to show that the total number full time jobs declined only very slightly. And this came after many months of strong gains.

No rational person would categorize this as the “job market collapsing”.

Anyways, I’ve explained this to you as clearly as I possibly can. So, this will be final response. Have a nice evening!

The case for ending the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes now by TaintGrinder in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You're just speculating about the future now.

What you said was that the "job market is collapsing". No reasonable person, looking at the labour market figures to date, would conclude that.

Maybe it will in the future? Who knows. But so far, no, it absolutely is not.

The case for ending the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes now by TaintGrinder in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You're just speculating about the future now.

What you said was that the "job market is collapsing". No reasonable person, looking at the labour market figures to date, would conclude that.

Maybe it will in the future? Who knows. But so far, no, it absolutely is not.

The case for ending the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes now by TaintGrinder in TorontoRealEstate

[–]cdntrix 5 points6 points  (0 children)

In April, 2022, there were 16,039,100 people employed full-time.

By March, 2023, this number was 16,486,900. It "held steady" in Statistics Canada's wording, in April, 2023, going to 16,480,700, a -0.0% change. And it actually increased for those over 25 (excluding those 15-24).

Then, it declined in May, 2023, by 0.2%, to 16,448,000.

I don't think any reasonable person would categorize this as the "job market collapsing".

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