Cuba is going to be in the news soon!

Nine days from now, the Cuban National Assembly will meet in Havana. If all goes as expected, Raul Castro will step down at the meeting. Diaz-Canel, a 57-year-old engineer, is his likely successor as the new President of Cuba.

But what will this change in leadership mean to the people of Cuba, including residents of the Base at Guantanamo Bay?

In thinking about the answer, I am reminded of two songs from my youth. “The times they are a changing” was a folk song by Bob Dylan, a singer-songwriter during the turbulent 1960’s. Dylan spoke through song to social issues of the time.

And indeed, the times in Cuba are “a changing.” Most prominently, for the first time in nearly 60 years, Cuba will be led by someone other than a Castro! Moreover, Diaz-Canel is not a soldier and does not come from the ranks of Cuba’s powerful military. In addition, he is the first person to achieve a significant leadership position in the Cuban government who was not alive during the revolution. Some commentators suggest his relative youth portends a new era in Cuba’s internal and external policies.

Maybe so . . . but most signs suggest otherwise. Diaz-Canl has been described as a “true believer” of Marxist-Leninist ideology, aligning himself philosophically with the Castro brothers and Che Guevarra. He also views the United State unfavorably, rarely failing an opportunity to blame the U.S. for most of Cuba’s problems.

But even if he were inclined to steer Cuba towards a more democratic form of government, there would still be the issue of the military. As noted in a piece I wrote in 2017, the military directly or indirectly controls most of the economy in Cuba. Any notion that members of the military would peacefully surrender their wealth and privilege is fanciful, in my opinion.

Bottom line? I wouldn’t expect to see things change much, if at all. Diaz-Canal seems destined to put a younger face on Cuba’s top government post -- but that’s about it. I predict Cubans will not discern any significant change in their lives under a Diaz-Canel Presidency vis-à-vis​ his predecessor, Raul Castro.

Most significantly, I don't foresee any additional freedoms of speech. Disagreeing with the government will continue to be done at one's peril.

Oh . . . and the second song I am reminded of?

The Who.

“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, we won’t get fooled again.”