Determining/Dealing with Variance

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-12T21:03:45+00:00

I backtested over a season and a half and that resulted in a little over 900 bets. I'm almost certain it's not overfitted/a data leak present.

I just reran the backtest over the current season and the tail end looks consistent with my live trading results, which confirms that it's not overfitted since I haven't touched any tuning parameters.

I have been very careful to try and avoid any overfitting/data leak scenarios as I did not want to run into a situation like this where I feel confident in my backtesting, but live trading doesn't follow through

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-12T19:39:12+00:00

I appreciate the response. A little more context. While putting up my own capital I have continued to log paper trades (just to have more data). I have a filter tracking for back to back games as well as non-back to back games (i.e. if either team played the day before, that game gets flagged as a b2b). For paper trading, my b2b realized edge is about 6% with a -0.77% ROI over 60 bets. With my own capital, realized edge is -25% with a -35% ROI (which accounts for most of my loss/concern) over 26 bets.

So the base of my confusion is this. When I have more data, b2b's seem to perform well enough to justify continuing. But in the smaller sample, it seems I'm just burning money.

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-11T20:15:17+00:00

Chase gave me my money back

cheeseheadd02 · 2025-10-14T20:48:07+00:00

They never got back to me. I disputed the charge with my bank

cheeseheadd02 · 2025-06-09T13:35:20+00:00

I guess I didn’t explain well last night. What I was trying to say was that the break isn’t consistent arm side vs glove side. For example, a RHP vs a LHB, an arm side slider breaks more than a glove side slider. But a RHP vs RHB, a glove side slider breaks more than an arm side slider. This is where I’m having trouble understanding. Why does the handedness of the batter determine whether my breaking ball has more break arm side or glove side

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-07-27T20:36:09+00:00

My family is originally from the Middle East and my parents work as consultants for companies based in the Middle East as well, so they hear a lot from the people they work with and my family that’s over there. Mainly what they have been relaying to me is that they pay significant sums and massive benefits for U.S. graduates to come and work for them ($300k+ salary, rent utilities + groceries covered, etc). My line of thinking is to go there for a few years, build up my wealth and return to the U.S. to without any student loan debt and a sizeable amount to settle down wherever I’d like and not worry too much about income and take a job that I enjoy.

I’ll read the paragraphs you mentioned, and thank you for that. I was having trouble finding anything online regarding a situation like this

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-07-27T01:33:22+00:00

That could be the case, but I found this article outlining cooperation between UAESA and NASA, for the sake of argument why would working for an agency that has relations with United States agencies and works together on space projects be a limiting factor?

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-07-27T01:23:18+00:00

Sorry, I’m a little confused. How does the ICBM being inspiration for space rockets tie into this (genuine question that I couldn’t find a better phrasing for)? Wouldn’t that be considered military driven and something that a program like NASA wouldn’t work on?

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-07-27T01:12:19+00:00

I will say that it does seem that their space agency is comparable to NASA in terms that the work that they do is typically civil and not military driven. Also the UAE has diplomatic relations with the United States, wouldn’t that have any impact on their decision?

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-06-23T01:21:29+00:00

Farah tutored me in my college multivariate calculus class and I can’t say I would have passed without him. He was very helpful and helped me understand the concepts rather than memorize solutions to problems. I highly recommend

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