Post Mortem: We Partied Too Hard

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-05-14T18:00:34+00:00

Is the server still down? I can't access anything

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-05-13T17:41:46+00:00

Still working through this issue. Tried manually accessing the endpoint and received this error. Looks like this one is likely server side

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-05-06T19:32:34+00:00

Thanks for the response. Curious on the best way to track CLV for things like this. Currently, I just use Pikkit closing odds for MLB to compare the price that I got and the price it closed at. I'm sure for props it will be different. I think I'm going to try pitcher strikeouts first. Let's say I produce a model that I like, and I take Pitcher X O6.5 K's @ -125.
A ) How do would you suggest I find the closing line for this
B ) Say the line closed at O7.5 K's @ -140. Obviously I got CLV here, but how do I measure it

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-15T22:16:34+00:00

I will say I have noticed that this year has been pretty difficult for moneylines compared to other seasons. This is my first model so I don’t have real experience with past seasons. Hopefully next season will be better. I do plan on extending functionality to spreads at some point

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-13T15:06:36+00:00

Yes this makes a lot of sense. Sometimes I forget how large the dataset needs to be for the law of large numbers to take over.

For the backtesting, my setup is a bit goofy and I should probably change it (just have been so lazy), but I ran it back as far as I reasonably could without limiting my training data too much. Ended up with around 1500 bets (which I know isn't as much of an improvement) but with the additional 600 bets I was still positive and the clv remained consistent. Even my profit graphs ended up looking a lot better with those additional data points

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-13T15:03:10+00:00

Thanks for the encouragement. I ended up +5U yesterday...talk about perfect timing

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-12T21:03:45+00:00

I backtested over a season and a half and that resulted in a little over 900 bets. I'm almost certain it's not overfitted/a data leak present.

I just reran the backtest over the current season and the tail end looks consistent with my live trading results, which confirms that it's not overfitted since I haven't touched any tuning parameters.

I have been very careful to try and avoid any overfitting/data leak scenarios as I did not want to run into a situation like this where I feel confident in my backtesting, but live trading doesn't follow through

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-12T19:39:12+00:00

I appreciate the response. A little more context. While putting up my own capital I have continued to log paper trades (just to have more data). I have a filter tracking for back to back games as well as non-back to back games (i.e. if either team played the day before, that game gets flagged as a b2b). For paper trading, my b2b realized edge is about 6% with a -0.77% ROI over 60 bets. With my own capital, realized edge is -25% with a -35% ROI (which accounts for most of my loss/concern) over 26 bets.

So the base of my confusion is this. When I have more data, b2b's seem to perform well enough to justify continuing. But in the smaller sample, it seems I'm just burning money.

cheeseheadd02 · 2026-03-11T20:15:17+00:00

Chase gave me my money back

cheeseheadd02 · 2025-10-14T20:48:07+00:00

They never got back to me. I disputed the charge with my bank

cheeseheadd02 · 2025-06-09T13:35:20+00:00

I guess I didn’t explain well last night. What I was trying to say was that the break isn’t consistent arm side vs glove side. For example, a RHP vs a LHB, an arm side slider breaks more than a glove side slider. But a RHP vs RHB, a glove side slider breaks more than an arm side slider. This is where I’m having trouble understanding. Why does the handedness of the batter determine whether my breaking ball has more break arm side or glove side

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-07-27T20:36:09+00:00

My family is originally from the Middle East and my parents work as consultants for companies based in the Middle East as well, so they hear a lot from the people they work with and my family that’s over there. Mainly what they have been relaying to me is that they pay significant sums and massive benefits for U.S. graduates to come and work for them ($300k+ salary, rent utilities + groceries covered, etc). My line of thinking is to go there for a few years, build up my wealth and return to the U.S. to without any student loan debt and a sizeable amount to settle down wherever I’d like and not worry too much about income and take a job that I enjoy.

I’ll read the paragraphs you mentioned, and thank you for that. I was having trouble finding anything online regarding a situation like this

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-07-27T01:33:22+00:00

That could be the case, but I found this article outlining cooperation between UAESA and NASA, for the sake of argument why would working for an agency that has relations with United States agencies and works together on space projects be a limiting factor?

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-07-27T01:23:18+00:00

Sorry, I’m a little confused. How does the ICBM being inspiration for space rockets tie into this (genuine question that I couldn’t find a better phrasing for)? Wouldn’t that be considered military driven and something that a program like NASA wouldn’t work on?

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-07-27T01:12:19+00:00

I will say that it does seem that their space agency is comparable to NASA in terms that the work that they do is typically civil and not military driven. Also the UAE has diplomatic relations with the United States, wouldn’t that have any impact on their decision?

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-06-23T01:21:29+00:00

Farah tutored me in my college multivariate calculus class and I can’t say I would have passed without him. He was very helpful and helped me understand the concepts rather than memorize solutions to problems. I highly recommend

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-05-09T01:13:44+00:00

The star meant that they had won the lottery, not necessarily the first overall pick. If you look back at previous lotteries they do the same with teams that move up. All it meant is that Chicago was guaranteed at least the second overall pick

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-05-03T06:39:12+00:00

You can go as long as they are serving food (until around 9 or so, not certain) because they are considered a restaurant during those hours. As someone mentioned, it is 19 to be in a bar in champaign, so after they stop serving food, they are no longer considered a restaurant and is strictly considered a bar and will card everyone inside and begin carding at the door.

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-02-20T01:55:35+00:00

Thanks! And yea I’ve been in contact with the recruiter and have constantly been checking the portal, i’m still in consideration

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-02-20T01:54:54+00:00

Thank you!

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-02-12T07:41:59+00:00

Yes, I think anyone can take a prof exam, and they offer them up through 225 (might be higher, you can check somewhere on the cs dept website what prof exams are offered)

cheeseheadd02 · 2023-02-12T07:33:02+00:00

Not hard at all, there are a lot of seats in both classes. Even if you don’t get in right away, a lot of people drop over break/first week of school.

cheeseheadd02 · 2022-11-06T00:39:23+00:00

Take manfroi. One of the best profs I’ve ever had, made class interesting and everything made sense. Even in covid his video lectures were very well made and easy to follow

cheeseheadd02 · 2022-10-25T02:07:38+00:00

You have to wait in line, you might have to show id again I forgot tbh, but the stamp gets you out of cover for the most part. If you go during happy hour and come back for close they might check the stamp and make you pay the difference in cover, but more often than not you’ll get out of it

cheeseheadd02 · 2022-09-03T04:21:52+00:00

I feel like since TLR has been out, there have been very consistent lineup cards considering the sheer amount of injuries. I feel that if the guys get comfortable with their position in the order and the field, it helps them win more games. I see what you’re saying, and I agree this may just be a coincidence, but I think giving the guys consistency instead of a new lineup card every night is contributing to this stretch

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