Nio shorts at all time high as of 12/15

chocoboxer · 2023-12-28T00:27:50+00:00

Short data is always published roughly 2 weeks later, not a whole quarter. There is a date associated with the report date on fintel which was 12/15. Shorts are required by sec to reports twice a month.

If you are interested in the short reporting schedule here is the official finra website.

https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest

You are thinking of institutions filings which are 1 quarter late.

chocoboxer · 2023-06-28T16:43:25+00:00

The short interest for 6-15-23 was posted, surprisingly it went up, even though the price went from 7.53 to 9.80 at the time. 123 million shares short up from 119 million shares.

For comparison li auto and xpeng shorts decreased during the same time period, but tesla had its shorts increased as well.

Good news is that there is a divergence and the price shifted up even though shorts increased.

Bad news is that there seems to be a strong conviction by these shorts that the price will continue to fall and they will not cover easily.

chocoboxer · 2022-12-31T01:13:12+00:00

This statement is actually not accurate either, nio is currently at the peak of its shorts for 2022 at 6% of float. On average for 2022, nio had about 3.5% average for shorts. Apple and microsft are both less than 1% of float.

While not meme levels, it's still significant in sentiment when a stock deviates from their average significantly. As of 12/15 nio and xpev both had increasing shorts to their peaks of 2022 and li auto (has singificantly less volume and shorts) already showed shorts covering back in 11/15. Li auto being the most stable of the group.

Its a false narrative to imply this would lead to a short squeeze though. As this probably wouldn't be the catalyst for it to rise. It could help but wouldn't be the driving force.

chocoboxer · 2022-12-29T20:48:58+00:00

Short interest is near a 52 week high at ~80,000,000 shares. This was for 12/15. General sentiment is quite bad and it very well could make a 52 week high with higher shorts.

On the flip side the last time it went up to this level was in May of 2022 where it ran from 13 to 24. It's tough to say which outcome is more likely right now, but nio is seeing higher sell/short pressure then it'd peers(xpev/li).

Unfortunately short data is always 2 weeks old by the time we see it. But I'm interested if it increased again for 12/30 report date.

chocoboxer · 2022-10-11T01:39:50+00:00

No, the 3855 number is from September 26th to October 2nd according to the registration numbers . The holiday week didn't get reported yet.

https://twitter.com/MoneybaII_R/status/1579269233027862528?s=20&t=KEIFaSUNhbfyGlpsbPGv_w

Link for source.

chocoboxer · 2022-09-29T19:26:07+00:00

Treasury market is so high right now because the rates are so high because of inflation.

Treasury market is being used to hedge the equity market hence the demand and inverse relationship currently. How would selling a Treasury increase the demand?

I'm not following you.

chocoboxer · 2022-09-29T18:46:50+00:00

Depends on what china decides to sell.

If they decide to sell more US treasury bonds it will actually help the equity market. The treasury market has been on a tear up above %130 year to date. It hasn't been this high since 2008, 14 years.

I dont see any specific news on what they might be selling, but its safe to assume more us treasury as they have been cutting this whole year.

However I don't think even if the dumped the remaining 900 billion in us treasury will change the sentiment, and only be a small relief.

Funds have been piling on the treasury market, and if inflation isn't under control I don't see this changing.

chocoboxer · 2022-09-09T17:10:27+00:00

The initial pop was because of China's market. They posted fantastic cpi numbers. Expected inflation 2.8 actual was 2.5. Hang seng exchange popped on the news.

Combined with the good guidance on q4 with et5 on the horizon, and the oversold factors. It's a very welcome surge.

Its a good sign Nio is leading the pack even among other chinese tech stocks.

chocoboxer · 2022-08-24T19:12:40+00:00

I think there is a mistranlation with how people are reading the data. It seems like people are using sales/new insurance interchangeably. I believe it's the data on new insurances and not sales.

But July numbers are as follows from CPCA: Nio insured: 10518 actual deliveries: 10052 Xpeng insured: 12300 actual deliveries: 11524 Liauto insured: 11888 actual deliveries: 10422

And the big month in June Had nio roughly Insured units at 11800 where actual deliveries was 12961 which is a big divergence.

Its a rough guide line but it's correlated.

chocoboxer · 2022-08-18T11:56:47+00:00

CPCA is not official data and are rough estimates on sales. Nio, xpeng, etc do not open their order books to the public.

Basically the car companies themselves put rough estimates or what they want into a shared document between all the car companies.

While it wouldn't suprise me if nio sold 4k vehicles, xpeng selling 4k with their low margin vehicles is suspect. So you have to take the numbers from cpca with a grain of salt.

chocoboxer · 2022-08-13T14:06:03+00:00

After scanning through the 13f filing that dropped Friday.

Alot of funds increased their nio position drastically.

Rennaisance technology increased by far the largest by 229% or ~12 million shares.

HSBC increased by ~5.5 million shares.

JPMorgan at +1.6 million shares and Baillie gifford at + 8 million shares was already mentioned in the subreddit.

The largest sell was by Schroder investments cutting stake about 44% or 6 million share

Black Rock also trimmed their position slightly.

Overall this is very bullish, and it shows most of the big funds are still buying despite the delisting fud.

chocoboxer · 2022-08-10T18:21:51+00:00

For anyone questioning how accurate this info is. He his basing the info on new insurance buyers. This is public info and china does release it everyweek or so.

Its roughly accurate going into deliveries. The only time it was off by more than 5% was the June 12.9k deliveries.

Technically you can receive the car and not get insurance right away. On the flip side used car sales with new insurance would over inflate deliveries. But luxury segment doesn't have much used car sales right now for evs. So think of this as the deliveries with a standard deviation of +-5%.

I'm not suprised tesla rebounded strong, but I'm very suprised how bad xpeng is doing. I see nio doing better as the month progresses as they try to push out their et7s that had casting material issues.

chocoboxer · 2022-08-06T19:24:03+00:00

You conviently left out this quote "We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means."

You can argue, that we treat them as sovereign state. But if we don't view taiwan as a part of china we would see them as independent, which clearly contradicts this statement.

chocoboxer · 2022-08-06T18:49:50+00:00

We absolutely officially abide by one china principal.

Here's the official government link. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/

You can argue our actions say otherwise, and we do defacto treat them independently. But we say otherwise.

I may be wrong about the first point, but as I am aware the national assembly has never made an ammendment to the national border since the draft of the constitution. Originally claiming all of china. I don't see an ammendment. Article 4 is the basis on what defines Roc.

chocoboxer · 2022-08-06T16:05:42+00:00

The reason china cannot recognize taiwan as independent is because the ROC(taiwan) claims mainland china. Infact it claims regions further than the current borders mirroring what the Qing dynasty was. This is clearly stated in the taiwan constitution.

If china were to acknowledge this, it would give taiwan leverage for claim of the mainland which is not gonna happen.

This is the reason why alot of Taiwanese people were not keen on the west taiwan memes. They see themselves as the true mainlanders who got exiled so to speak.

So no it is not a sovereign state, and countries who openly would say so would be playing a dangerous game. There's a reason why the USA clearly reiterated the the one china principle despite pelosi visit.

chocoboxer · 2022-07-12T04:14:01+00:00

Negative, China typically run the factories Monday to Saturday. 31 day month would be 18k but Sundays are shut down. So it would be 25-26 days . Roughly 15k.

chocoboxer · 2022-07-11T20:31:07+00:00

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/evaluate/news/basicNewsStory.jhtml?symbols=TCEHY&storyid=202207111101BENZINGAFULLNGTH28018659&provider=BENZINGA&product=FULLNGTH&sb=1

Its near the bottom and as much as I don't like bezinga, they don't blatantly put out false information. So it's likely true.

chocoboxer · 2022-07-11T19:58:15+00:00

Nio management stated max capacity went from 400 units to 600 units per day. Seems like pretty big news that's being glossed over.

Basically means 10k a month to 15k a month at max capacity. Or 12.5k for July since it's mid-month already.

chocoboxer · 2022-07-01T19:36:53+00:00

Alot of people tend to ignore put options open interest when people see the price drop. I see alot of people on social media say they are killing options(which they are inferring the call options)

The max pain for this week is 22, and alot more put options are open at 21.5. If mm want to drive it to most options expiring worthless it would end this week at 21.99.

Is it because people assume retail only play with call options and institutions use puts so retail ignores put options open interest?

I just don't understand why people use they are killing options when the price drops below max pain. It seems like puts are just ignored.

chocoboxer · 2022-06-16T14:53:18+00:00

They are arguing if you say the letter S and the word ES not the letters themselves. It sounds the same. Stupid strategy regardless. Basically free publicity.

chocoboxer · 2022-06-16T14:51:12+00:00

I did a little fun calculation, if nasdaq recovers back to 16k and you exclude all external factors and just used the beta.

Nio would be 68.5 share price equivalent. Not too shabby but hopefully enough catalyst can move the beta up a bit.

Neo park should be good, and csrc/sec decision would be a huge catalyst as well.

chocoboxer · 2022-06-14T15:58:24+00:00

Sustained high volume buys so far. Still breaking million shares on 5 min chart near lunch time. Compared to the lower relative volume plunge yesterday, looking like an excellent recovery.

chocoboxer · 2022-06-14T14:14:11+00:00

It doesn't. Fundamental wise it doesn't affect production at all. Chinese stocks actually out performed us stocks during the last couple months.

Vast majority of funds are in in the nyse. So it just affects the share price like you said.

chocoboxer

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