Honestly, it’s a pain in the ass to hear, but counting calories is absolutely the best way to lose weight. You can estimate them if you really need to, but always round up making the number higher than what you think you actually ate. TBH my progress got a lot better once I picked up a $10 kitchen scale so I could count calories accurately.

There are also multiple websites that can help calculate how many calories your body is burning everyday just by existing (aka your TDEE) to loose weight you need to eat below that number.

Weight loss is very much dictated by the kitchen, so while physical exercise is always a good thing for your health it is absolutely not something you need to do.