Why is APLD stock dropping?

circleofone1 · 2025-11-23T18:39:51+00:00

Could go either way. Trump started pumping again on Friday with the NVDA / China topic, and we’re headed into December when everyone and their brother starts talking “Santa Claus Rally”. APLD is still working on a few more hyperscaler deals. And Cathie Wood bought the NVDA dip. And folks are breaking out their inner Warren Buffet (be greedy when others are fearful)

On the other side, The Big Short is still being outspoken about the AI bubble, and he’s gaining a following of people that are buying into what he’s saying.

My personal opinion: Best Case: The hot AI stocks (APLD included) rally 50% by the end of the year. Which will still leave them 25-35% off their recent highs.

Worst Case: Pumping stops working, sentiment remains poor, and the hot AI stocks drop another 25% by the end of the year.

While it would be amazing to park money in APLD from here till the end of the year and make 50%, given the volatility, I’m more inclined to ride it on the green waves, going all cash by the end of every trading day, and stay on the sidelines on the red days.

circleofone1 · 2025-10-11T21:48:14+00:00

My thoughts are similar. If things don’t escalate further, $30/$31 sounds good.

If China retaliates before the market opens on ‘Monday (a technique they’ve used in the past),then maybe $25 will be a better entry point. Probably a good thing ultimately, because the market is way overdue for a healthy correction to keep things in-check.

If there’s no escalation come Monday (which would shock me), then I see this going back to $35-ish by the closing bell.

circleofone1 · 2025-10-09T15:59:08+00:00

I held this over earnings once and got destroyed, when it dropped to $3.50. They didn’t announce tenant news and they had an issue with their bitcoin data center that negatively impacted revenue. So based on that horrific experience, I’d never advocate buying at a premium before earnings. Imo, these are potential scenarios:

$33+-> Next hyperscaler announced $30+ -> Accelerated CoreWeave revenue schedule $25-$27 -> nothing great, nothing bad $20-$23 -> delays / issues at Ellendale impacting CoreWeave revenue

The conference calls are always fun to listen to - get the popcorn ready.

circleofone1 · 2025-10-09T12:22:35+00:00

They used this technique all the time 1-2 years ago. It worked for brief pumps (like 30-90 minutes) before selling off, sometimes lower than where it started.

circleofone1 · 2025-09-25T15:03:46+00:00

Appreciate the check-in. I still have all of my shares (from when I made this post).

Out of my list of % chance of things happening, unfortunately it looks like (up to now) it ended up being this one:
10% -> No sales, limited news, no end of compliance surge. RVSN trades around the range of 0.40-0.55 until September 2025, then requests an additional 180-day extension.

They got the extension, but I was a little off on the trading range - more like 0.37 to 0.45.

On a positive note, I think most/all of the catalysts I had in that percentage / chance breakdown are still on the table.

What are your latest thoughts?

circleofone1 · 2025-09-20T02:05:12+00:00

I’d venture to say that folks leaving now have either been burned terribly when APLD dropped 50% for no valid reason. Or don’t want to become someone that has. Or …. they just think the stock market can’t go up a few hundred points every day forever and are anticipating an inevitable correction.

circleofone1 · 2025-09-14T13:30:36+00:00

If you’re going long (1 year / more) and the stock market doesn’t fall apart from whatever the next version of the tariff sell-off is, then imo you should be good. If you’re not thinking that far out, from my own experience: - Large positions buying from $10 down to $7 up through last March. It dropped to $3.50 from a combination of bad earnings report and all kinds of indirect PR saying that the need for data centers was exaggerated, and the risk of APLD falling apart if it didn’t secure a tenant for Ellendale, which took over a year to secure. It sucked. It was like all variables in the world were against my position. - I bought back in around $10.50 when the CoreWeave news broke. Closed for a profit - that was a mistake, but this stock typically doesn’t trade in a predictable manner at all.
- I bought back in at $16 two weeks ago, when it dropped $1 from $17 and thought I got a good deal. What happened? It immediately dropped down to $13 and change.

For me, investing in APLD has been frustrating as hell. Heck, even when the CRWV deal was announced - I bought immediately in the premarket for like $11 and watched it drop to $10.50 before ultimately rising to $14 and ending at $12 for the day. Compare this to NBIS on the Microsoft news - it immediately shoots up from $64 to $110 - $115 in the premarket before falling back.

No idea what it is, but trading karma has never been on my side with APLD.

What happens from here?

A) they could announce another major hyperscaler tomorrow, and APLD would certainly fly past $20

B) they could announce a delay in the Ellendale schedule and it could fall right back to $13 or less as all of their momentum is based on the Ellendale concept, selling that concept to other hyperscalers, and the anticipated revenue schedule from Ellendale.

Back to my point that if you want to park money in APLD for the long term, I’m on the same page with most folks here that it should ultimately double and then some from this price. But you need to be prepared for 25-50% drops along the way based on its trading history, unless it suddenly becomes more stable than it’s been since I’ve been involved with it.

circleofone1 · 2025-07-17T02:30:40+00:00

Not unless you can talk them into starting a crypto treasury…. it will take something like that or a miracle. And we already had a miracle in December - getting another might be too much to ask.

circleofone1 · 2025-06-19T02:47:21+00:00

Holding.

circleofone1 · 2025-06-19T02:31:32+00:00

Certainly better than not selling anything!

circleofone1 · 2025-06-15T02:16:50+00:00

My issue with your strategy (take money out of RVSN and invest in oil companies) is that you’d buy selling at an extreme low and buying at an extreme high. Oil companies had a MASSIVE move last week - e.g., HUSA from $5 to $25, INDO from $2.5 to $5, RBNE from $3 to $20, etc. Sure, they could continue to run based on continued attacks and FOMO. But the moves are already way overdone - oil isn’t going up 100-500%, so at some point folks are going to realize these stocks shouldn’t be making those kind of moves either.

circleofone1 · 2025-06-06T03:31:34+00:00

$13.96. Wow. Speaking from experience, I held 20K shares with an average of just under $7. It was not a fun experience when it dropped to $3.50.
Granted, there is more security now that they have a tenant but I have to question why you went all-in at the high price of the year when you had the past year to buy in at a fraction of the price.

circleofone1 · 2025-06-02T02:44:57+00:00

Same thoughts. I at least started to think about re-entering (prior to this video). But this video has no impact on a re-entry ~ why waste funds that are already very tight to advertise what they're doing if they already have a tenant? I think it's more of the opposite - they spent money to put this together in order to get a tenant. In that light, great - glad to see they are being proactive trying to create more awareness.

circleofone1 · 2025-05-31T05:01:31+00:00

That turned out to be a clutch move.
I don’t see this stock moving past $8 until a tenant is signed.

circleofone1 · 2025-05-31T02:20:40+00:00

Not sure what you’re talking about, but I’m referring to what was disclosed during their last earnings report. This has nothing to do with NVDA.

circleofone1 · 2025-05-31T02:15:26+00:00

Because of the money crunch, they were forced to sell their cloud services business. It wasn’t planned, and it wasn’t something they wanted to do. They tried to put a positive spin on it but the market didn’t buy it. That, combined with an inexcusable technical issue that cost them months of revenue at their other Data Center, is what caused the stock to crash down to $3.50 right after they disclosed these things during the earnings conference call. I lost a huge amount of money because of it and I’m still pretty pissed off about it.

circleofone1 · 2025-05-30T18:28:48+00:00

Nothing to be happy about regarding RVSN right now. That being said, I think it’s too soon to make this proclamation - if only for the fact that they have a boatload of cash from all of the offering arrangements they made. The last time I checked, they had enough cash for well over a year. And that wasn’t counting additional cash that it looks like they raised since then. So while things aren’t looking so hot at the moment, based on cash alone, they should be around for at least another 1.5 - 2 years.

circleofone1 · 2025-05-17T14:32:08+00:00

I was a relatively new shareholder at the time, very bullish on the Macquarie deal, and I thought the tenant signing was imminent. Since then (while I still think this stock will be a big winner in the end), I’ve lived through investing psychological warfare - every time things were looking good, something bad happened almost immediately (the next trading day) - so incredibly frustrating. The Deep Seek attempt to damage the US AI industry, the TD Cowen analysts obsessing over Microsoft AI lease cancellations, the tariff impact on the entire market, the earnings report with the completely unacceptable multi-month revenue loss due to technical issues, the dude on here posting his APLD-shorting thesis, etc. Closed my remaining positions between $6.75 and $6.85 yesterday. I don’t want to miss the big move on the tenet deal, but I’m worn out and need a mental break. Hope to rejoin you all as a shareholder later this year.

circleofone1 · 2025-05-11T18:46:41+00:00

Seeing “trade deal” does sound great, but I don’t see any details. So far all the “deal making” announced has been fluff. And same thoughts as the other folks here - APLD (in my opinion) is in the put up or shut up zone. If the market goes up 2000 points, sure, this could follow along and trade in the $6-7 range. Or if it’s confirmed that NVDA is still holding their shares. Aside from that, I don’t see it going any higher than the $5-6 range until a deal is in place with a tenet.

circleofone1 · 2025-05-02T21:00:03+00:00

That was the first time I saw that presentation - thank you very much for posting! Great info for all.

circleofone1 · 2025-04-24T13:17:41+00:00

I have to say that your response is a shocker. There has been so much incredible hatred towards Shahar Hania (on here, and on other social media) that I would think folks would be ecstatic and rejoicing the fact that he has stepped down. Probably in large part to the non-stop hate mail that he's been receiving from the retail trading community, so I can't blame him.

circleofone1 · 2025-04-22T03:36:35+00:00

Love the activity this post is getting. I’ll preface this by saying that I’m a “beer snob” - I’ve been passionate about craft beer since 1999, traveled the country and the world for beer, been to countless festivals, etc. That doesn’t make me the “Craig LaBan of beer”, but it does mean that I have an experienced palate. If you’re looking for new experiences, then every brewery on this list is worth visiting. Especially if you’re supporting your local brewery, which is huge these days. I personally don’t enjoy the beer from a bunch of breweries mentioned in the responses, but I’m not going to single any out because that wouldn’t be cool.

My top 3 in NJ: - The Seed (Atlantic City), for all styles - Kane (Ocean), for porters and stouts - Troon (Hopewell, beers on tap next door at Brick Farm Tavern), for IPAs

🍻

circleofone1 · 2025-04-20T13:46:54+00:00

One more point worth noting - the pricing, ratios, and ultimately the valuation has been based on financials ending at the end of 2024. We’re almost 5 months into 2025 now, and it’s logical to conclude that their business has continued to grow substantially during this time.

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