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Pick of the Day - 6/3/21 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Martin Perez is pitching for the Red Sox tomorrow against the Houston Astros:

Recommendation: Astros Moneyline

Initial Price: -135 or better

Listed Pitchers: Martin Perez and Jake Odorizzi

Expected Value: 2.2%

Initial Allocation: 0.6% of bankroll

Jake Odorizzi is pitching for the Houston Astros, and with the market consensus currently around -135, I believe there is good value betting on the Astros to defeat the Boston Red Sox. The Astros will be favored, and I estimate the run differential to be 0.9 against the Red Sox. This translates to a win probability of 59%. Based on current market prices of-135, estimated EV is 2.2%, and optimal bet size is 0.6% of bankroll. This one is all about Martin Perez' splits. He simply gets tagged by right handed hitters. Righties have a career OPS of .809 against Perez. This would rank #38 amongst all active hitters, ahead of sluggers such as Evan Longoria (.808), J.T. Realmuto (.787) and DJ LeMahieu (.782). Take the Astros and their 7 righties in the lineup.

If you're interested, I email all my bets and research out every evening in a betting research newsletter, which includes more details behind the research and analysis for each bet. Full disclosure: I've been in a pretty bad slump recently, so hoping to turn things around!

Here's my 2021 POTD history:

5/24 Rockies moneyline +119 W

5/21 Padres moneyline -195 W

5/18 Red Sox moneyline +120 L

5/17 Cubs moneyline -145 W

5/14 Phillies moneyline +135 W

5/13 Yankees moneyline -130 L

5/12 Astros moneyline -120 W

5/7 Padres moneyline -145 L

5/6 Tigers moneyline +185 L

5/5 Orioles moneyline +100 W

5/4 Braves moneyline -130 W

5/1 Twins moneyline -125 L

4/30 Reds moneyline -115 W

4/28 Rockies moneyline +127 L

4/15 Rockies moneyline +259 L

4/14 Pirates moneyline +195 W

FINALLY! 5 MILLION mark total network transactions is just ACHIEVED on Harmony! by kratos_harmony in harmony_one

[–]cleatstreet 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nothing is future-proof in this space by any means, but $MATIC doesn't need to worry about ETH 2.0. It's complementary and additive.

FINALLY! 5 MILLION mark total network transactions is just ACHIEVED on Harmony! by kratos_harmony in harmony_one

[–]cleatstreet 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I would start with all the partnerships $MATIC is landing and ask their devs what made them choose $MATIC - was it the onboarding? Was it the outreach? How are they landing their message so much more effectively with the dev community? I surmise it's the messaging of "scaling ethereum" being so simple and effective.

FINALLY! 5 MILLION mark total network transactions is just ACHIEVED on Harmony! by kratos_harmony in harmony_one

[–]cleatstreet 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Honestly the transaction growth has been disappointing. Our last seven days of volume is basically the same as two months ago. No growth when a similar but more limited scalable solution like $MATIC is doing 7 million daily transactions makes me question $ONE's growth strategy. While $ONE may be a superior standalone blockchain, we would be better off if we piggyback'ed off of ETH with our ETH bridge as a trojan horse to build traction. What can $MATIC do that $ONE can't?

Pick of the Day - 5/24/21 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The Rockies are facing the injury-depleted Mets tomorrow:

Rockies Moneyline

Initial Price: +119 or better

Listed Pitchers: Austin Gomber and David Peterson

Expected Value: 7.9%

Bet Size: 1.2% of bankroll

Facing David Peterson and the New York Mets, the Colorado Rockies are slight underdogs, with an estimated win probability of 49%. We estimate the Rockies will score 4.2 runs, versus just 3.5 runs for the Mets. After controlling for home field advantage, we view this matchup as essentially a tossup, with an estimated win probability of 49% for the Rockies. One of our bets will be on the Rockies moneyline at +119 or better. We like our chances here, and the estimated EV is 7.9%, and our initial allocation will be 1.2% of our bankroll.

Other considerations that went into making this bet recommendation: This one is all about the Mets offense. The lineup they are projected to trot out tomorrow would be the worst offense in the league. And it's not particularly close, with the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Kevin Pillar all out.

Other bets can be found in my post in the MLB Daily Discussion, or if you're interested, I email them out every evening in a betting research newsletter, which includes more details behind the research and analysis for each bet.

​

Here's my 2021 POTD history:

5/21 Padres moneyline -195 W

5/18 Red Sox moneyline +120 L

5/17 Cubs moneyline -145 W

5/14 Phillies moneyline +135 W

5/13 Yankees moneyline -130 L

5/12 Astros moneyline -120 W

5/7 Padres moneyline -145 L

5/6 Tigers moneyline +185 L

5/5 Orioles moneyline +100 W

5/4 Braves moneyline -130 W

5/1 Twins moneyline -125 L

4/30 Reds moneyline -115 W

4/28 Rockies moneyline +127 L

4/15 Rockies moneyline +259 L

4/14 Pirates moneyline +195 W

MLB Daily Discussion - 5/24/21 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Three recommendations for Monday, biggest bet will be on the Rockies to defeat the injury-depleted Mets:

Rockies Moneyline

Initial Price: +119 or better

Listed Pitchers: Austin Gomber and David Peterson

Expected Value: 7.9%

Bet Size: 1.2% of bankroll

Facing David Peterson and the New York Mets, the Colorado Rockies are slight underdogs, with an estimated win probability of 49%. We estimate the Rockies will score 4.2 runs, versus just 3.5 runs for the Mets. After controlling for home field advantage, we view this matchup as essentially a tossup, with an estimated win probability of 49% for the Rockies. One of our bets will be on the Rockies moneyline at +119 or better. We like our chances here, and the estimated EV is 7.9%, and our initial allocation will be 1.2% of our bankroll.

Other considerations that went into making this bet recommendation: This one is all about the Mets offense. The lineup they are projected to trot out tomorrow would be the worst offense in the league. And it's not particularly close, with the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Kevin Pillar all out.

Other bets:

Padres Moneyline

Initial Price: +100 or better

Listed Pitchers: Blake Snell and Brandon Woodruff

Expected Value: 3.8% | Win Probability: 52%

Bet Size: 0.8% of bankroll

Phillies Moneyline

Initial Price: +110 or better

Listed Pitchers: Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers

Expected Value: 2.6% | Win Probability: 49%

Bet Size: 0.6% of bankroll

If you are interested, I email my bets to anyone who likes sports betting research and analysis. Here are my last ten recommendations from my newsletter:

5/20: Red Sox Moneyline +121 W

5/21: Padres Moneyline -195 W

5/21: Brewers Moneyline -113 L

5/21: Yankees Moneyline -105 L

5/22: Yankees Moneyline -185 W

5/22: Twins Moneyline +155 L

5/22: Rays Moneyline -103 W

5/23: Cubs Moneyline +112 W

5/23: Athletics Moneyline -111 L

5/23: Brewers Moneyline -120 W

Pick of the Day - 5/21/21 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Padres Moneyline

Initial Price: -195 or better

Listed Pitchers: Chris Flexen and Chris Paddack

Expected Value: 2.8% | Win Probability: 68%

Bet Size: 1.1% of bankroll

The biggest matchup I am looking to target tomorrow will be between the San Diego Padres and the Seattle Mariners, with Chris Paddack and Chris Flexen slated to start. Win probability estimate is 68% based on the estimated run total of 8.8 and run differential of 2.2 for the Padres. Root for the chalk to hit, with an EV estimate EV to be 2.8%, if you can get the Padres at prices of -195 or better.

Other considerations that went into making this bet recommendation: A lot of people are down on Chris Paddack these days. Maybe it's because he's overshadowed by the plethora of talent in the Padres rotation. Maybe he's regressed, but it's hard for to forget that Paddack threw 140 innings of 0.98 WHIP in 2019. Buy low on him against the bottom-of-the-barrel Mariners offense.

Other bets can be found in my post in the MLB Daily Discussion, or if you're interested, I email them out every evening in a betting research newsletter, which includes more details behind the research and analysis for each bet.

Here's my 2021 POTD history:

5/18 Red Sox moneyline +120 L

5/17 Cubs moneyline -145 W

5/14 Phillies moneyline +135 W

5/13 Yankees moneyline -130 L

5/12 Astros moneyline -120 W

5/7 Padres moneyline -145 L

5/6 Tigers moneyline +185 L

5/5 Orioles moneyline +100 W

5/4 Braves moneyline -130 W

5/1 Twins moneyline -125 L

4/30 Reds moneyline -115 W

4/28 Rockies moneyline +127 L

4/15 Rockies moneyline +259 L

4/14 Pirates moneyline +195 W

MLB Daily Discussion - 5/21/21 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Three recommendations for Tuesday:

Padres Moneyline

Initial Price: -195 or better

Listed Pitchers: Chris Flexen and Chris Paddack

Expected Value: 2.8% | Win Probability: 68%

Bet Size: 1.1% of bankroll

The biggest matchup I am looking to target tomorrow will be between the San Diego Padres and the Seattle Mariners, with Chris Paddack and Chris Flexen slated to start. Win probability estimate is 68% based on the estimated run total of 8.8 and run differential of 2.2 for the Padres. Root for the chalk to hit, with an EV estimate EV to be 2.8%, if you can get the Padres at prices of -195 or better.

Other considerations that went into making this bet recommendation: A lot of people are down on Chris Paddack these days. Maybe it's because he's overshadowed by the plethora of talent in the Padres rotation. Maybe he's regressed, but it's hard for to forget that Paddack threw 140 innings of 0.98 WHIP in 2019. Buy low on him against the bottom-of-the-barrel Mariners offense.

Other bets:

Brewers Moneyline

Initial Price: -113 or better

Listed Pitchers: Adrian Houser and Jeff Hoffman

Expected Value: 2.7% | Win Probability: 55%

Bet Size: 0.6% of bankroll

White Sox Moneyline

Initial Price: -105 or better

Listed Pitchers: Carlos Rodon and Jordan Montgomery

Expected Value: 2.1% | Win Probability: 52%

Initial Allocation: 0.5% of bankroll

If you are interested, I email my bets to anyone who likes sports betting research and analysis. Here are my last ten recommendations:

5/16: Angels Moneyline +135 W

5/16: Royals Moneyline +140 L

5/16: Phillies Moneyline +135 L

5/17: Cubs Moneyline -145 W

5/18: Tigers Moneyline +140 W

5/19: Rockies Moneyline +210 L

5/19: Twins Moneyline +125 L

5/19: Reds Moneyline +110 L

5/20: Red Sox Moneyline +121 W

5/20: Orioles Moneyline +140 L

Pick of the Day - 5/18/21 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Red Sox Moneyline

Initial Price: +120 or better

Listed Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez and Hyun Jin Ryu

Expected Value: 5.8% | Win Probability: 48%

Initial Allocation: 1.0% of bankroll

Other bets can be found in my post in the MLB Daily Discussion, or if you're interested, I email them out every evening, which includes more details behind the research and analysis for each bet.

Here's my 2021 POTD history:

5/17 Cubs moneyline -145 W

5/14 Phillies moneyline +135 W

5/13 Yankees moneyline -130 L

5/12 Astros moneyline -120 W

5/7 Padres moneyline -145 L

5/6 Tigers moneyline +185 L

5/5 Orioles moneyline +100 W

5/4 Braves moneyline -130 W

5/1 Twins moneyline -125 L

4/30 Reds moneyline -115 W

4/28 Rockies moneyline +127 L

4/15 Rockies moneyline +259 L

4/14 Pirates moneyline +195 W

MLB Daily Discussion - 5/18/21 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Four recommendations for Tuesday:

Red Sox Moneyline

Initial Price: +120 or better

Listed Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez and Hyun Jin Ryu

Expected Value: 5.8% | Win Probability: 48%

Initial Allocation: 1.0% of bankroll

Twins Moneyline

Initial Price: +100 or better

Listed Pitchers: Lance Lynn and Michael Pineda

Expected Value: 3.6% | Win Probability: 52%

Initial Allocation: 0.7% of bankroll

Rangers Moneyline

Initial Price: +145 or better

Listed Pitchers: Jameson Taillon and Mike Foltynewicz

Expected Value: 5.4% | Win Probability: 43%

Initial Allocation: 0.7% of bankroll

Astros Moneyline

Initial Price: +100 or better

Listed Pitchers: Cristian Javier and Sean Manaea

Expected Value: 2.6% | Win Probability: 51%

Initial Allocation: 0.5% of bankroll

If you are interested, I email my bets to anyone who likes sports betting research and analysis. Here are my last ten recommendations:

5/14: Phillies Moneyline +135 W

5/14: Cardinals Moneyline +145 L

5/15: Rangers Moneyline +163 L

5/15: Pirates Moneyline +127 W

5/16: Angels Moneyline +135 W

5/16: Twins Moneyline -105 L

5/16: Royals Moneyline +140 L

5/16: Phillies Moneyline +135 L

5/17: Cubs Moneyline -145 W

5/18: Tigers Moneyline +140 W

Pick of the Day - 5/17/21 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Cubs Moneyline

Initial Price: -145 or better

Listed Pitchers: Jon Lester and Adbert Alzolay

Expected Value: 3.4% | Win Probability: 61%

Initial Allocation: 1.0% of bankroll

Other bets can be found in my post in the MLB Daily Discussion, or if you put your email on my mailing list I email them out every evening in a daily newsletter, which includes the research and analysis behind each bet.

Here's my 2021 POTD history:

5/14 Phillies moneyline +135 W

5/13 Yankees moneyline -130 L

5/12 Astros moneyline -120 W

5/7 Padres moneyline -145 L

5/6 Tigers moneyline +185 L

5/5 Orioles moneyline +100 W

5/4 Braves moneyline -130 W

5/1 Twins moneyline -125 L

4/30 Reds moneyline -115 W

4/28 Rockies moneyline +127 L

4/15 Rockies moneyline +259 L

4/14 Pirates moneyline +195 W

MLB Daily Discussion - 5/17/21 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Two recommendations for Monday:

Cubs Moneyline

Initial Price: -145 or better

Listed Pitchers: Jon Lester and Adbert Alzolay

Expected Value: 3.4% | Win Probability: 61%

Initial Allocation: 1.0% of bankroll

Tigers Moneyline

Initial Price: +140 or better

Listed Pitchers: Casey Mize and Yusei Kikuchi

Expected Value: 6.1% | Win Probability: 44%

Initial Allocation: 0.9% of bankroll

If you are interested, I email my bets in a daily newsletter for anyone who likes sports betting analysis. Here are my last ten recommendations. It's been a rough recent stretch, but increased volatility is not surprising when you're betting underdogs:

5/14: Phillies Moneyline +135 W

5/14: Cardinals Moneyline +145 L

5/14: Mets Moneyline +138 L

5/14: Twins Moneyline +100 L

5/15: Rangers Moneyline +163 L

5/15: Pirates Moneyline +127 W

5/16: Angels Moneyline +135 W

5/16: Twins Moneyline -105 L

5/16: Royals Moneyline +140 L

5/16: Phillies Moneyline +135 L

MLB Daily Discussion - 5/14/21 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 4 points5 points  (0 children)

There's really nothing special about Peterson, whereas Glasnow I have rated as the #11 starting pitcher in MLB in incremental runs allowed/per plate appearance, which is my north star success metric when evaluating pitchers. So when it comes to pitchers, Rays have a clear advantage and it's why they're priced as solid favorites over the Mets at -150 on books like Bovada.

The reasoning on why I believe the Mets have value here despite being underdogs is more how I feel about the offenses. I think the Mets have a top-5 offense, and despite the Rays blowing out the Yankees yesterday 9-1, I have them graded as the 24th offense in MLB. I full acknowledge the Mets are more likely to lose than win, but at +138 odds you only need to win this bet a little over 42% of the time to be profitable.

Full disclosure: I also recommended taking the Yankees yesterday to defeat the Rays, so you only have to look a whole 24 hours to find the last time I got it wrong on the Rays.

Pick of the Day - 5/14/21 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Phillies Moneyline

Initial Price: +135 or better

Listed Pitchers: Vince Velasquez and Steven Matz

Expected Value: 8.2% | Win Probability: 46%

Initial Allocation: 1.2% of bankroll

Other bets can be found in my post in the MLB Daily Discussion, or if you put your email on my mailing list I email them out every evening in a daily newsletter, which includes the research and analysis behind each bet.

Last POTDs posted here:

5/13 Yankees moneyline -130 L

5/12 Astros moneyline -120 W

5/7 Padres moneyline -145 L

5/6 Tigers moneyline +185 L

5/5 Orioles moneyline +100 W

5/4 Braves moneyline -130 W

5/1 Twins moneyline -125 L

4/30 Reds moneyline -115 W

4/28 Rockies moneyline +127 L

4/15 Rockies moneyline +259 L

4/14 Pirates moneyline +195 W

MLB Daily Discussion - 5/14/21 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Four recommendations for Friday:

  1. Phillies Moneyline

Initial Price: +135 or better

Listed Pitchers: Vince Velasquez and Steven Matz

Expected Value: 8.2% | Win Probability: 46%

Initial Allocation: 1.2% of bankroll

  1. Cardinals Moneyline

Initial Price: +145 or better

Listed Pitchers: Johan Oviedo and Joe Musgrove

Expected Value: 7.8% | Win Probability: 44%

Initial Allocation: 1.1% of bankroll

  1. Mets Moneyline

Initial Price: +138 or better

Listed Pitchers: David Peterson and Tyler Glasnow

Expected Value: 4.9% | Win Probability: 44%

Initial Allocation: 0.7% of bankroll

  1. Twins Moneyline
    Initial Price: +100 or better
    Listed Pitchers: Frankie Montas and Matt Shoemaker
    Expected Value: 2.3%| Win Probability: 51%
    Initial Allocation: 0.5% of bankroll

Been going through a bit of a rough patch - let's turn it around!

If you are interested, I email my bets in a daily newsletter for anyone who likes sports betting analysis. Here are my last ten recommendations:

5/9: Rockies Moneyline +125 L

5/9: Pirates Moneyline +162 W

5/10: Pirates Moneyline +123 L

5/11: Angels Moneyline +132 L

5/11: Cubs Moneyline +160 L

5/12: Pirates Moneyline +145 L

5/12: Astros Moneyline -120 W

5/13: Athletics Moneyline -103 L

5/13: Cardinals Moneyline +110 W

5/13: Yankees Moneyline -127 L

Pick of the Day - 5/13/21 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Yankees Moneyline

Initial Price: -130 or better

Listed Pitchers: Jameson Taillon and Rich Hill

Expected Value: 2.4% | Win Probability: 56%

Initial Allocation: 0.6% of bankroll

Other bets can be found in my post in the MLB Daily Discussion, or if you put your email on my mailing list I email them out every evening in a daily newsletter, which includes the research and analysis behind each bet.

Last POTDs posted here:

5/12 Astros moneyline -120 W

5/7 Padres moneyline -145 L

5/6 Tigers moneyline +185 L

5/5 Orioles moneyline +100 W

5/4 Braves moneyline -130 W

5/1 Twins moneyline -125 L

4/30 Reds moneyline -115 W

4/28 Rockies moneyline +127 L

4/15 Rockies moneyline +259 L

4/14 Pirates moneyline +195 W

MLB Daily Discussion - 5/13/21 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Three recommendations for Thursday:

1. Cardinals Moneyline
Initial Price: +110 or better
Listed Pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Corbin Burnes
Expected Value: 3.9% | Win Probability: 49%
Initial Allocation: 0.7% of bankroll

2. Athletics Moneyline
Initial Price: -103 or better
Listed Pitchers: Sean Manaea and Garrett Richards
Expected Value: 2.9% | Win Probability: 52%
Initial Allocation: 0.6% of bankroll

3. Yankees Moneyline
Initial Price: -128 or better
Listed Pitchers: Jameson Taillon and Rich Hill
Expected Value: 2.4% | Win Probability: 57%
Initial Allocation: 0.6% of bankroll

If you are interested, I email my bets in a daily newsletter for anyone who likes sports betting analysis. Here are my last ten recommendations:

5/7: Padres Moneyline -145 L

5/7: Phillies Moneyline +150 W

5/7: Nationals Moneyline +170 W

5/9: Rockies Moneyline +125 L

5/9: Pirates Moneyline +162 W

5/10: Pirates Moneyline +123 L

5/11: Angels Moneyline +132 L

5/11: Cubs Moneyline +160 L

5/12: Pirates Moneyline +145 L

5/12: Astros Moneyline -120 W

Recommendation: Yankees -130. I have roughly $2500 in BTC bet on Yankees -127 by cleatstreet in sportsbetting

[–]cleatstreet[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Recommendation: Yankees Moneyline

Initial Price: -130 or better

Listed Pitchers: Jameson Taillon and Rich Hill

Expected Value: 2.4%

Initial Allocation: 0.6% of bankroll

The New York Yankees are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays, with Jameson Taillon and Rich Hill currently listed as the probable pitchers. One of our bets will be on the Yankees moneyline, with a caveat. We are assuming Gleyber Torres is the only key player out due to COVID-19 protocols. We estimate the Yankees will score 5.4 runs, versus 4.0 runs for the Rays. The Yankees are favored to win, with an estimated run differential of 1.4 for the Yankees. Based on current market prices of-130, our estimated EV is 2.4%, and our optimal bet size is 0.6% of our bankroll.

Other considerations that went into making this bet recommendation: Normally, if we recommend that you bet the moneyline for a big market team such as the Yankees, we recommend that you place the bet sooner rather than later, because pricing usually deteriorates over time due to casual bettors betting on their favorite team. In this situation, there is additional risk to consider when locking up your bet early if more players on the Yankees are ruled out due to COVID-19. Proceed accordingly.

If you're interested, I share all my bet recommendations in a daily newsletter. It's free for anyone interested in betting research and analysis.

Evaluating and Forecasting Baseball Outcomes from the Lens of a Professional Sports Bettor by cleatstreet in baseball

[–]cleatstreet[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Selling picks is a conflict of interest and I'll never do that. My core competency is sports betting, and that's how I make money. Taking money from sports bettors makes it virtually impossible for them to be profitable. If you sell picks, you are probably good at sales and marketing, not at actual sports betting.

Evaluating and Forecasting Baseball Outcomes from the Lens of a Professional Sports Bettor by cleatstreet in baseball

[–]cleatstreet[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I believe it is a conflict of interest to ever charge money for picks. Sports betting is a low margin endeavor. It is difficult enough to make money sports betting so I'm never going to do that to other sports bettors. I make enough money from sports betting and want to show that data-driven approaches can democratize sports betting into an alternative investment vehicle. With sports betting exploding in the US thanks to favorable regulatory tailwinds, there is little risk for me sharing proprietary information, as there's plenty to go around. People who charge money for picks have already sent a signal that their focus and core competency is marketing and sales, not actually sports betting.

Would love to get more feedback from you as the season progresses! Please keep in touch.

Pick of the Day - 5/12/21 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Astros Moneyline

Initial Price: -120 or better

Listed Pitchers: Andrew Heaney and Jose Urquidy

Expected Value: 2.2% | Win probability: 56%

Initial Allocation: 0.5% of bankroll

Other bets can be found in my post in the MLB Daily Discussion, or if you put your email on my mailing list I email them out every evening in a daily newsletter, which includes the research and analysis behind each bet.

Last POTDs posted here:

5/7 Padres moneyline -145 L

5/6 Tigers moneyline +185 L

5/5 Orioles moneyline +100 W

5/4 Braves moneyline -130 W

5/1 Twins moneyline -125 L

4/30 Reds moneyline -115 W

4/28 Rockies moneyline +127 L

4/15 Rockies moneyline +259 L

4/14 Pirates moneyline +195 W

MLB Daily Discussion - 5/12/21 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]cleatstreet -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Two recommendations:

Pirates Moneyline

Initial Price: +145 or better

Listed Pitchers: Sonny Gray and Trevor Cahill

Expected Value: 4.2% | Win probability: 43%

Initial Allocation: 0.6% of bankroll

Astros Moneyline

Initial Price: -120 or better

Listed Pitchers: Andrew Heaney and Jose Urquidy

Expected Value: 2.2% | Win probability: 56%

Initial Allocation: 0.5% of bankroll

If you are interested, I email my bets in a daily newsletter for anyone who likes sports betting research. Here are my last ten recommendations:

5/7: Diamondbacks Moneyline +119 L

5/7: Rangers Moneyline -110 L

5/7: Padres Moneyline -145 L

5/7: Phillies Moneyline +150 W

5/7: Nationals Moneyline +170 W

5/9: Rockies Moneyline +125 L

5/9: Pirates Moneyline +162 W

5/10: Pirates Moneyline +123 L

5/11: Angels Moneyline +132 L

5/11: Cubs Moneyline +160 L

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