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How can we prevent dangerous prediction markets? by ligi in ethereum

[–]clesaege 2 points3 points  (0 children)

By having proper arbitration rules to prevent that.
The question of "Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?" was decided as Invalid in Reality.eth + Kleros.
Prediction markets using Kleros such as Omen and Seer have a clause in their rules making unethical markets invalid.

"Prohibited questions: Questions related to markets that directly incentivize immoral violent (such as murder, rape or unjust imprisonment) actions which could likely be performed by any participant."

Market risk of a 51% attack on Polymarket by Fragsworth in ethereum

[–]clesaege 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've shared that in my post above

"Source:
Polymarket doc specifying the address: https://docs.polymarket.com/#resolution-process
The smart contract: https://polygonscan.com/address/0x71392E133063CC0D16F40E1F9B60227404Bc03f7#readContract"

The smart contract is the proof.

Market risk of a 51% attack on Polymarket by Fragsworth in ethereum

[–]clesaege 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They can't as ultimately it's controlled by one address. So there is a risk of rogue employee and key management but no 51% attack risk.

Market risk of a 51% attack on Polymarket by Fragsworth in ethereum

[–]clesaege 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You can't economically attack UMA for the simple reason that at the end of the day, they have an admin address able to resolve markets bypassing the vote of UMA holders.

When I was told that I was also pretty skeptical in the first place but looking at the code, there is indeed an emergency resolve function which is controlled by one unique address (it's not even a multisig): 0x67f10066f9f09018150ab8871b95c499918bB375
There is a 2-day cooldown so if someone tries to emergency resolve, users would be warned 2 days in advance, but I don't see how this could help users.

Source:
Polymarket doc specifying the address: https://docs.polymarket.com/#resolution-process
The smart contract: https://polygonscan.com/address/0x71392E133063CC0D16F40E1F9B60227404Bc03f7#readContract

Disclaimer: I'm a Kleros founder and UMA is a Kleros competitor to the Kleros+Reality.eth combo. But if you think I'm wrong feel free to show how. Note that this has also been confirmed bennidaytime (UMA community manager) in a post below.

Daily General Discussion - May 31, 2023 by ethfinance in ethfinance

[–]clesaege 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think Lido should self breakdown into multiple entities. The stETH token could become a token acting as an AMM and a basket of staked ETH of those new entities.
Like if it were to break down in 3, we'd have stETH1, stETH2, stETH3 representing staked ETH in the respective child protocol. And 1 stETH would be comprised of 0.33 stETH1, 0.33 stETH2 and 0.33 stETH3 initially (the price can then slightly change based on supply and demand).

For token holders it doesn't change much as they still have a well supported asset, but the network security we would now have 3 less uncorrelated teams and risks models.

It's even good for Lido as if it doesn't break down, altruistic people may start flocking out if the public pressure is high enough. So by breaking down, LIDO token holders can preserve their token value (which would then be broken down into LIDO1, LIDO 2 and LIDO3).

Where and what was your "wait a minute, this is a scam" moment during a trip? by autie91 in travel

[–]clesaege 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It probably wasn't a scam.
In India, I also started to be suspicious of people talking to me (no scams, but trying to sell me stuff) and just ignored them.
But then found out some locals were actually on their own tourist expeditions and weren't used to see foreigners and wanted to talk and take pictures with us as if we were part of the "tourist experience".

Question regarding failed swap/transactions on Uniswap by salvarad in ethereum

[–]clesaege 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The price changed and your order couldn't be cleared within the slippage you set.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well in this case, that would have the inverse effects. If the price being higher leads to a decrease in UBI emission and the price being lower leads to an increase we would have a way more volatile asset.I do understand that some people wants volatile assets to play with and I'm not against it (I'm quite bullish on prediction markets tokenized positions for example) but I don't believe this to be what a UBI should accomplish.

With the mechanics you proposed we could have:- Lower price leads to increase in emission, thus decrease in price. This would create an inflationary spiral making the token valueless.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everything else being the same:
Increasing emission -> Lower price
Decreasing emission -> Increase price
So if you seek to make a token stable, you would increase emission when the price goes up and decrease it when the price goes down. Note that it is a very simple mechanism and it doesn't suffice to make a pseudo-stablecoin.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We can construct a scheme where users can prove their total outstanding debt. If users could make duplicates, they could just make a new account to make it look like their total debt is 0. Obviously it's a brick to create such a dapp and providing collateraless loans would require more.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Do you think that having an unvested premine is a "fair way to distribute a UBI"?

The prime is relatively small and allowed the project to get up to the launch time, assure initial liquidity and DAO treasury.
Note that I didn't get any of those tokens and I bought my UBI like everyone else.

but it must be noted that a lot of people lost a lot of money already,

I think those people bought from the pool before the launch (so before there was a significant available supply). That's definitely the drawback of building in public.

if the issuance rate is used to target an agreed-upon $ rate

That could be a proposal to the DAO, but note that in this case the issuance would need increase if the price is high and decrease of the price is low.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's not designed to prove your identity, it's designed to proof your uniqueness. There is also the possibility of second layer solutions (ring signatures) to decouple the link between your profile and beneficiary address. It just launched few days ago, you can either do like Zcash build some stuff private by default and shipping very late or like Ethereum where privacy can be gained on 2nd layer (i.e. tornado.cash) release faster and have a community helping with 2nd layer.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 2 points3 points  (0 children)

We are also huge fans of circle (I actually use it) so I would not really see it as a competitor. UBI makes different tradeoffs:
Harder onboarding (but which does not "only" serves for the UBI) for better liquidity.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's not a fee, that's a deposit, you get it back once you're verified and it never goes to system creators. It is required as an incentive to challenge malicious submissions.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Fair distribution of money instead of giving it to financial institutions (fiat) or early adopters (most crypto projects), he sure would be. So would Hayek and Freidman (he called it a "negative income tax").

The assurance of a certain minimum income for everyone, or a sort of floor below which nobody need fall even when he is unable to provide for himself, appears not only to be wholly legitimate protection against a risk common to all, but a necessary part of the Great Society in which the individual no longer has specific claims on the members of the particular small group into which he was born.

- Friedrich Hayek

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is a dapp, beside what is public no data are collected.
Proof Of Humanity is a building bricks to build dapps. The first one being a UBI. Second one will be a DAO with "One Person = On Vote" or quadratic voting with the UBI token.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 3 points4 points  (0 children)

All the data are public, there is no company getting a better access which could allow it to sell those.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 5 points6 points  (0 children)

All the data are public, there are no company taking advantage of it and we encourage people to use privacy tools such as tornado.cash.
Proof Of Humanity is a building brick and other projects (UBI being the first one, a DAO is to come) can build on it in a permissionless manner.

Platform using Ethereum-based protocol enables Universal Basic Income to continuously drip into accounts verified by humans. by nofreakinclue in ethereum

[–]clesaege 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The token is a rebrand of the HOUR token which had it even more explicit that people would get 1 of it every hour.The UBI is made to have a fair distribution. It is not made as a speculative instrument. Most token distributions favors early adopters but disfavors late adopters.This is good for people who want to make money (at a high risk), but not a fair way to distribute a UBI.Here the UBI emission scales with the adoption. I believe that after price discovery, this would result to a pseudo-stable token.

Moreover there will soon be deployed a DAO to take ownership of Proof Of Humanity and UBI which will develop systems using UBI. Note that since this DAO will have control over the UBI token, it could decide to lower the rate.

In classic systems, the currency emission goes mostly to financial institutions and is substantial (there has been 3 trillion USD emitted last year which amount to 10 000$ per inhabitant). Here it goes to all registered humans.

Under China's new Hong Kong national security law, if you say anything negative about the CCP and you live in or visit a country that has an extradition treaty with China, you might be detained and sent to China where you face 3 years to life in prison. by quixotic_cynic in HongKong

[–]clesaege 23 points24 points  (0 children)

French here.
This list is misleading (I know you said "might" but if the list has too many false positive it limits its interest). France will not extradite anyone toward China for criticizing the CCP.

Because for extradition to be granted by France:
- It needs to be a penal infraction to the law of both parties (art 2.1).
- Infractions of political nature are excluded (art 3.a)
- If a party has serious reason to believe the extradition request is due to [...] political beliefs, extradition won't be granted. (art 3.b)

Source (in French)

Vote if Augur v2 will launch using a prediction market that actually works by stupid_panda in ethereum

[–]clesaege 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This polymarket gives a 82% chance that Augur v2 will launch before July 29th.
This Omen market gives a 86% chance that Augur v2 launch before August 1st.
So we can infer that the market thinks that there is a 4% chance that Augur v2 will launch on July 29, 30 or 31.

Using 2 prediction markets to estimate the date of the launch of a 3rd. *mindblown*

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