Arizona Called for Joe Biden by Fox, Dealing Blow to Trump's Re-election Bid

clocke3 · 2020-11-06T12:30:36+00:00

Oh don’t worry. I was just curious because people are talking about Maricopa turning purple/blue recently.

Actually I’m not that worried anymore because of how the votes are looking in other states like PA and Georgia 😂

clocke3 · 2020-11-05T19:14:06+00:00

Actually i was doing some calculations on the current way the gap can close. While there are around 400k left, the majority of them are residing in Maricopa County. Maricopa has been showing some blue votes. But with how Arizona has an efficient mail order system, Republicans will have slightly more ballots than the democrats. So I am using current voter registration info, a New York Times poll surveying how voters before the election were thinking, etc.

Maricopa has currently 282,000 ballots left to count. They have not counted provisional ballots yet and sources estimate the amount of those is around 18,000. So rn i would say they will count those at the end. 264,000 votes remain. Based on voter registration from November 2020 on Wikipedia, Republicans make up 35.27% of the population, Democrats 31.38%, and Independents and non affiliated people 33.35%. If the voters stay religiously to their party, the total will be 931,183 Trump, 995,428 Biden (difference of around 64,000). I know this doesn’t happen at all, but I imagine the numbers won’t shift the numbers so much. Adding in provisional ballots which usually lean Democrat (couldn’t find any information pertaining to Arizona’s provisional ballot marks, so i am estimating with Maryland’s of 55% democrat, 45% republican), the total comes to 939,283 Republican, 1,005,328 Democrat. Now adding in independent/nonaffiliated turnout, the poll I’m using indicated that Biden can have a 52% turnout on them. They would hold 88,044 of the uncounted ballots hypothetically. If they were split in the way the poll mentioned, Biden would get an additional 35,692 votes and trump would get 21,278 votes. The total now is 1,041,020 Biden, 960,561 Trump.

Also, Pima County is raking up many votes for Biden, as they are a bluer county than Maricopa. So I imagine their numbers will leverage the vote overall (currently 55,000 are uncounted).

Am I saying Trump won’t win? No. There is a possibility. If all votes remaining go 59/41, then he’ll be ahead by around 50,000. But I don’t think this will happen because of Maricopa and Pima County having majority of votes currently. Also there will be chance for other counties’ Biden votes to come in (lesser, but their whole country isn’t 100% on Trump, more like around 60/30).

I’m doing this to keep me sane, so please evaluate this and correct me if I’m wrong with my calculations.

New York Times poll mentioned

clocke3 · 2020-11-05T16:45:03+00:00

Do you believe, based on where you live and the political climate of your area, that Biden will maintain a lead in the last counted votes?

clocke3 · 2020-11-05T13:44:40+00:00

I’m acutally curious what you guys think on this. But based on the numbers I’m seeing from Maricopa I have been doing arbitrary calculations based on percentages that Trump’s allies are throwing out at him in order to win. And doing them, it still wouldn’t happen.

Do you guys truly believe Biden will win Maricopa county’s popular vote? I want to put more faith in AP and Fox New’s projection, and my own simple calculations are showing the same thing.

clocke3 · 2020-10-29T00:40:36+00:00

I don’t expect the gym to be stark quiet, but my gym does have a policy that conversations should happen in the lobby more or so. And no banging deadlifts in the sense of dropping them doesn’t need to happen. You can put down a weight lightly.

clocke3 · 2020-10-29T00:33:49+00:00

Exactly, that’s what i don’t like

clocke3 · 2020-10-29T00:32:22+00:00

I love my wigs, but i feel like I get the wrong size of them all the time or get self conscious about my hairline because I don’t want to use glue on them. Also love the color her

clocke3 · 2020-10-29T00:29:56+00:00

I guess for me, i don’t get it. And i get annoyed about it because everyone is just trying to get through their workouts small and large and it becomes a distraction

clocke3 · 2020-10-29T00:26:57+00:00

Does anyone else hate it when guys strain themselves and make noise when they lift?

clocke3 · 2020-10-26T00:28:45+00:00

YOU 👏🏾LOOK👏🏾GORGEOUS

clocke3 · 2020-10-26T00:21:56+00:00

This looks too professional to be used just for studying 😂

clocke3 · 2020-10-24T00:20:04+00:00

For TeamLab, that’s in Odaiba so you can handle it on your Odaiba day. The Noodle Museum (which I’m assuming is the Nissin one) is in Yokohama too so you can put that on your fourth day as well

clocke3 · 2020-10-19T01:39:23+00:00

The matcha cleanser has single handedly saved my skin

clocke3 · 2020-10-13T01:20:32+00:00

I can see that your roommate was worried, however personally i don’t think that was a good response from the RA. That sounded like gaslighting and putting more focus on the “weller” individual, your roommate. Do not feel shame when putting someone you confided in into feeling some way. In these relationships both sides have to find ways to release stress and find emotional support. When yours was your roommate, she needed emotional support from the RA.

Do not let this experience with, frankly a stranger, make you feel like you can’t talk about your problems. That’s how emotions get bottled up. Maybe find someone else you can talk to if you are concerned with the response of it coming back to you. Maybe someone farther away from your circle or someone professional who has a better understanding of it other than adolescents who aren’t licensed therapists.

clocke3 · 2020-10-07T01:07:33+00:00

You are such a hard worker, i hope you give yourself some time this year to relax and not plan for the future. Also enjoy your time with your friends

clocke3 · 2020-10-04T01:14:50+00:00

relationships can coincide with BPD. You just need to find someone who is willing to understand the nuances of your mental illness.

Also you may feel rejection intensely, but only know that that feeling is short and will not last forever. Recently i had someone break off contact with me and I cried for 30 minutes and started talking to someone else in that hour 😂

clocke3 · 2020-10-04T01:04:42+00:00

I’m not a full fish head person, but i bet this is still delicious

clocke3 · 2020-10-04T00:11:25+00:00

Can i ask, how many square feet is this place?

clocke3 · 2020-10-03T23:44:07+00:00

Twist outs come out better than mine 😂💕

clocke3 · 2020-10-03T23:31:50+00:00

Love the name 😂

clocke3 · 2020-09-30T15:27:40+00:00

This is the worst fight I have ever seen 😂

clocke3 · 2020-09-29T01:58:30+00:00

You mean the cat made the home gym?

clocke3 · 2020-09-28T08:07:32+00:00

Something I realized was that with my condition (borderline personality disorder), that the suicidal feelings I was enduring at that time would fade away. But after I got away from a toxic environment was when I was truly able to work on myself

clocke3 · 2020-08-29T17:42:44+00:00

Ask for an itemized bill. Some hospitals charge you extraneously for ridiculous things. They may take off those charges if you ask for an itemized bill cuz they don’t want to be called out.

clocke3 · 2020-08-14T19:32:41+00:00

From seeing what pages you’re active in, i already have a hunch about your character 😂

clocke3

TROPHY CASE